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New expectations of dollar traders

شناسه : 48125 29 اردیبهشت 1400 - 11:58
The dollar has fallen relative in recent days. Currency traders in recent days have focused on the steady decline of the dollar. This has led to a decline in foreign exchange trading in the middle of this week. The government will not help the country's economy by creating a queue to buy dollars.
New expectations of dollar traders
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The foreign exchange market saw a temporary drop in prices yesterday. Most likely, the passage of time will not be in favor of the dollar. But in the meantime, decisions have been made that are not very favorable to the foreign exchange market. Unfortunately, we are witnessing a price gap of 2,000 Tomans between the free market dollar and the national exchange office, which we have repeatedly witnessed in the economic decision-making system in Iran. Please be with Artan Press.

*** Foreign exchange market from the perspective of the stock market

As can be seen from the board of the Tehran Stock Exchange; The exchange rate of the UAE dollar and dirham has dropped by around 1% yesterday. It was 200 to 6,300 tomans. The purchase price of half-dollar remittances in yesterday’s report was reduced by 1,725 ​​rials compared to Sunday, 203,275 rials, and the selling price of these remittances was reduced by 1,740 rials to 205,122 rials. In terms of price indicators, we are witnessing a decline in the price of the dollar in all pricing elements.

*** Take a look at the factors influencing the dollar foreign exchange market

But in addition to price fluctuations, we must also pay attention to the trading volume factor. In this regard, the weighted average weekly buying and selling rate of text money dollar remittances yesterday decreased by 645 rials compared to yesterday’s report, reaching 205,798 rials. This indicates that the community and buyers and sellers of dollars in Iran have accepted the drop in prices, and it is likely that falling candlesticks will be on the way. The Money Changers Association has announced the exchange rate for the market, according to which the free dollar decreased by 150 tomans and returned to the channel of 22,000 tomans. The price of the dollar in the open market is about 22850 tomans and the euro is about 27800 tomans.

*** Repetitive mistake of the government in supplying currency to foreign exchange market

But one issue in the system of supply and demand of dollars by the government is very wrong. The difference between the price of the dollar in the free market and the exchange, which is the result of the wrong philosophy of the government to balance the foreign exchange market, is the main subject of this part of the analysis of the price of the dollar. By injecting currency into the market, the government is trying to keep the market in a state of price equilibrium, but is unaware that some brokers and intermediaries are standing in line to receive an immediate profit of two million Tomans. Ordinary people will practically not benefit from this subsidy.

*** Loss of foreign exchange resources by forming dollar purchase queues

Irregular distribution of currency and the existence of a price gap between the national exchange and the free market in Iran have a long history. This happened for the first time, of course, during Mr. Adeli’s presidency over the Central Bank documentary, and this strategy was repeated in the recent government. The government thinks that ordinary people pocket this profit, but there is no share in the dollar buying queue except for brokers and intermediaries. Dollars are not meat, poultry, or clothing that ordinary people line up to buy. In this case, the auction of the country’s foreign exchange resources has taken place and in the conditions of currency war and economic crisis, a wrong action is taken by the government and the central bank. This is called wasting foreign exchange resources.

*** Monitor dollar price indices

But with all these interpretations, we are dealing with dollar exchange rates in accordance with the latest trading prices. The dollar was sold in the open market at a price of 22,800 tomans, with a decrease of 400 tomans compared to the price of yesterday at noon. The euro was offered in the open market at a price of 27,750 tomans, and the selling rate of the dollar on the national exchange board decreased by 302 tomans and was offered at a price of 22,220 tomans. These prices show that if there is a continuous supply in the foreign exchange market, the dollar can experience a price drop of 400 tomans per day. Of course on a short scale of 7 days.

*** The impact of the dollar on the gold market

The price of dollars and coins has always been two sides of the same coin. The fall in the price of the dollar yesterday has caused a relative drop in the price of gold. Emami coin decreased by 169 thousand tomans compared to the noon price, reached 10 million and 70 thousand tomans. Each gram of 18-carat gold was sold at a price of 1,700 tomans with a decrease of 12,300 tomans, and also the price of an ounce of gold in the world market was reduced by 5 dollars and 42 cents, at a price of 1,547 dollars and 89 cents. . The convergence of the decrease in the global ounce price and the dollar exchange rate in Iran can accelerate the fall in the price of gold in the Iranian market.

*** Monitor dollar remittance transactions

But let’s have a look at towel transactions in currency exchange points in Iran. The UAE dirham remittance sales rate decreased by 90 tomans to 6,310 tomans and the Chinese yuan remittance rate decreased by 50 tomans to 3,670 tomans. The selling price of the Turkish lira remittance decreased by 50 tomans and was sold at the price of 2,820 tomans. $ 91 million was traded in Nima system with an average rate of 204,415 Rials during the previous day.

The Nima system has witnessed the supply of about $ 347 million in foreign currency remittances to supply the country’s import currency. About $ 91 million of these offerings have been traded. Based on the transactions, the weighted average dollar exchange rate was 204,415 Rials. This indicates that the effective exchange rate in the country’s imports has been the mentioned rate and its trend has been declining in recent days.

*** Conclusion :

Basically, the structure of Iran’s economy is an inflation-friendly structure, or in other words, inflationary. Most of the time, this inflation has occurred from the top down, that is, the price growth has started from the final goods such as durable and capital goods such as housing, cars, etc., and then gradually in the prices of production inputs and upstream goods and goods … has shown.

In recent years, the root of inflation has been seen in the increase in the price of gasoline and the dollar and sanctions and …. Inflations due to rising dollar rates or capital goods such as Housing and cars were created, as the price fever of these goods subsided, it decreased and remained in the range of 15 to 20 percent. It seems that with the temporary reduction of the dollar rate and the severe elimination of liquidity from society, we will see a general decline in prices, at least in the foreign exchange market and some commodity markets. But it remains to be seen with what record the Rouhani government will hand over the central bank to the next government.

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