"It will probably be difficult to replace Iranian oil," Nasseri said, adding that "most of Iran's oil reserves are similar to those produced in the Middle East," he added. "Iraq, the Emirates, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, Of the region, which, in addition to producing oil similar to Iran's oil, has a surplus capacity to increase supply and replacement of Iranian oil. These countries can replace Iran with their surplus capacity in the market, "he said. Following the announcement of non-renewal of exemptions, the arrangement of the main buyers of Iranian oil has been reviewed.
South Korea is the largest importer of gas condensate in the world. With about 500,000 barrels a day importing about 25 percent of its gas condensate trade, the country owns gas condensate. South Korea provided up to 178,000 barrels of gas per day, equivalent to 38 percent of its supplies to Iran prior to the resumption of sanctions. Iran, after Qatar, is the largest supplier of South Korean gas condensate. The country was one of the eight countries that were exempted from the Iran sanctions for 180 days last November, allowing the United States to buy 200,000 barrels of oil per day from Iran for gas and gas condensate. Gas condensate is a super-light liquid hydrocarbon that is produced along with gas and is separated from it after extraction. This substance typically has an API rating of about 50. In recent years, South Korea has increased its refining capacity and demand for gas condensate to develop its petrochemical industry. It manufactures naphtha gas condensate and uses it as a feedstock for its petrochemical plants to produce plastic products.
As the US Energy Information Administration said in a report, South Korea has been seeking resources to replace Iran's gas condensate even before sanctions began, as the Gulf Star has been set to drop in recent years, with the export capacity of Iranian gas condensate declining. However, efforts to replace Iran's gas condensate during the boycott, especially after Tramp announced that it will not extend the breaks, has become more serious. The US Energy Intelligence Agency announces that Korea will be able to meet part of its demand by increasing imports from Qatar and Australia. The country could also replace Iranian gas condensates, such as Russia, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Nigeria and the United States, with API levels of about 45. Another route to supplying Korea is to increase direct imports of naphtha.
However, according to Naseri, it is simply not possible to replace Iran's gas condensate. This is particularly true for countries like South Korea, which use naphtha gas condensate as a feed for liquid petrochemicals. "Gas condensate from Iran and Qatar can be replaced with other gas condensates, as well as light American oil," Nasseri added. But the quality of Iran's gas condensate is much higher than similar ones and a higher percentage of naphtha is produced. "Nasseri further notes that a kind of condensate in the United States, called the Eagle Ford 60, is very similar to Iran's gas condensate." But recently, the condensate produced in the United States has suffered from a problem of quality and impurities, in which the South Koreans had to return two shipments. "Since Korea has not been able to replace Iran's gas condensate, it has been forced to buy gas condensate products spirited Heavy Naphtha (FHFRN).
Japan is also replacing Iran's oil. The refiners have announced in recent days that they have increased their orders to buy Middle Eastern oil and replace Iran's oil. Oman oil, Bahrain and UAE will replace Iran's oil in refineries in Japan. According to Japanese refiners, because of the difference in the oil grade, it can not replace Iran's oil. Managing director Koosmo, one of Iran's oil buyers in Japan, said: "We will have no problem replacing Iran's oil. Because Iran provided 5 percent of the oil needed for this refinery. "Fujiawil Refinery Managing Director, Japan's third largest refinery, has also emphasized the lack of a problem for the Iranian refineries to replace Iran's oil refinery, yet he has suffered economic losses due to This substitution is described as follows: "This monthly replacement will cost us more than $ 900,000 to our refinery."
But China, as the largest buyer of Iranian oil hoping to be the biggest offender to US sanctions on Iran, did not have any news for the country in the past days. The largest refineries in recent days have announced that they have stopped buying oil from Iran. According to the statistics of Rifiniteu, a tanker company, oil imports from China last month reached a record 830,000 bpd. About 300,000 barrels show an increase compared to March. The increase in oil purchases from Iran has been one of the reasons for record levels of Chinese imports in April. However, oil imports from Iran are expected to drop sharply this month, with the expiration of sanctions suspensions. Clark Russell, a commodities market analyst at Reuters, estimates that the volume of Iranian oil imports from Iran will reach 260,000 barrels a day this month. According to the expert on the oil market since the beginning of May, only one fog Crude oil from Iran is flowing in China's ports, and given the fact that it takes three weeks to reach the tankers from Iran to China, only three other consignments will eventually be discharged at the Chinese oil terminals in May. Russell believes that Saudi Arabia The main source of Iran's oil supply is for China, and predicts Saudi oil imports to 47.1 million barrels this month, which is about 270,000 barrels higher than in April. Nonetheless, the oil market expert, pointing to a record import volume of 72.2 million barrels of crude oil from Saudi Arabia in March, highlighted China's increased oil import capacity. However, given the limited Venezuelan oil supply under US sanctions, Russell anticipates that Iran's sanctions on Iranian oil will cost a lot to China.
Shortly after the announcement, the country announced that it would seek alternatives to Iran's oil, and that the American decision would not make Delhi an oil shortage. However, Iran has been one of the main sources of Indian oil supplies. Prior to the exemption, India had purchased from Iran nearly 800,000 barrels per day, and Iran supplied about 11 percent of its needs. Oil supplies from Iran have had good economic benefits for Iran, and the cutback in Iranian oil supplies could create problems for India. The United States is one of the sources that can replace Iran's oil. The country has hit the Indian market in recent years; however, while Iran was among the cheapest sources of oil supply to India, it has been the most expensive source of oil for the country. US officials, who boycott oil supplies to Iran for oil imports to importing countries such as India, have announced in recent days that they can not cut oil prices to countries that follow US orders and do not buy oil from Iran; Because oil producers in this country are private and independent of the state.