چهارشنبه, ۲۶ خرداد , ۱۴۰۰ 7 ذو القعدة 1442 Wednesday, 16 June , 2021 ساعت ×
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Continuing stock market nightmares or sparks of optimism?

شناسه : 47861 ۲۲ اردیبهشت ۱۴۰۰ - ۱۳:۰۶
In recent days, the capital market has been experiencing a growing situation due to the rising global prices of commodities and global oil, on the one hand, and the provision of facilities and licenses to start the process of initial exchange. Analysis of the trend of the Tehran Stock Exchange shows that after two days of the green index of the stock exchange, there is a potential for the Tehran Stock Exchange to resume its booming days. Of course, it is still a little early for a definite decision.
Continuing stock market nightmares or sparks of optimism?
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Trading day yesterday was a positive and good day for the capital market. In the last two weeks, we have witnessed two consecutive green days in the Tehran Stock Exchange. News such as the license to export steel and the rise in oil prices and the target of $ 100 per barrel on the one hand, and the positive outlook of the Borjami negotiations, have given the Tehran Stock Exchange a chance to grow. Therefore, in this memo, we will analyze the trend of Tehran Stock Exchange. It seems a little early for optimism right now. Because market support is at a minimum.

*** Analysis of Tehran Stock Exchange trend from the perspective of 14-day moving average

But it is not bad to take a look at the quantitative indicators of the green market yesterday. The analysis of the stock market trend is very much dependent on the evaluation of the conditions of the last two trading days. At the end of yesterday’s trading day, the value of small stock trading on the stock exchange and OTC for the second day in a row was higher than the 14-day moving average of this index.

The value of small transactions of stock exchanges and OTC at the end of the trading day was about 2.960 billion tomans, which is about 1.079 billion tomans more than the average of the last 14 days of this index (1.881 billion tomans). The 14-day index is a good quality indicator for the progress of the index in the short term. So it seems that the market will stabilize at least at this current high rate and the border support of one million one hundred and fifty thousand units will be much stronger than before.

*** Asymmetric range continues to hinder the acceleration of the Tehran Stock Exchange

The capital market is still affected by the asymmetric range in relative sales queues, and we saw real significant sales in the green market yesterday. Stock market analysts believe that the change in volatility and base volume was good news that created a positive movement in the market. But the analysis of the stock market trend shows that the way to reform is still open and there are many opportunities that need to be considered. But overall, the market has found itself with all its shortcomings. In addition to rising commodity prices in world markets, base metals as well as refineries have played a leading role in the market and raised the overall index.

*** The pulse of the capital market in the hands of index makers


Yesterday, the pulse of the market was in the hands of index stocks. The nature of these shares is such that in the negative days they take most of the market losses and in the positive days they take a significant part of the market profits. We saw this in the market yesterday. The overall capital market index rose again with the shining of the index stocks in the basic metals, automobile and refining groups as on Monday, and the demand side in the market revived. Accordingly, the total index yesterday with a growth of 21 thousand 939 units, reached one million 179 thousand 622 units. This indicates that the stock market trend analysis has entered a new and optimistic phase.


*** Paying attention to the basic factors of the Tehran Stock Exchange analysis process

But it should be noted that in analyzing the stock market trend, the fluctuations of the total index alone can not give us a correct view of the nature of the market. The status of the homogeneous index should also be assessed. In this regard, the overall homogeneous index did not leave a stable position and sometimes grew and sometimes fell, turned green by the end of trading and with a growth of 186 units, reached a height of 419,251 units. The base metals index, which rose sharply to one million units from the very beginning of trading today, with a growth of 35,708 units, showed a figure of 922,125 units and approached its target.

*** Accelerate licensing with the aim of boosting the capital market

The Exchange and Securities Organization, in order to develop the capital market, increase financial institutions and expedite the issuance of licenses, and since the financing license must be approved by the Supreme Council of the Stock Exchange, today this council, by launching the financing of the Persian Gulf, agreed with. We are likely to see strong initial public offerings on the stock exchange, and this will be an excuse for real money to enter the market. Launching a sandbox or test environment for innovative businesses based on new technologies in the capital market was also on the agenda.

These are the approaches that can lead the Tehran Stock Exchange analysis process in an optimistic direction. Since this is a new issue in the capital market and the current rules and regulations do not meet the needs of these companies, they must first operate in a test environment to make the necessary rules in accordance with their activities.

*** Analysis of Tehran Stock Exchange trend from the perspective of retail shareholder purchasing power

The market should not be judged solely by the behavior of the legal sector. Stock market trend analysis should be done based on both donkey and macro factors. One of the most important and positive points in yesterday’s trading was the strengthening of purchasing power by small shareholders, so that this group of net shareholders of positive purchases amounted to 107 billion tomans, which is the highest inflow of micro-liquidity since February 16 last year (asymmetric domain) have been.

Yesterday, small shareholders were more inclined to buy shares from the two groups of “petroleum products and base metals”. In contrast, shares of the two groups “Pharmaceuticals and Transportation” were at the forefront of legal purchases. The value of micro-stock exchange transactions today was 2727 billion Tomans and the value of OTC micro-transactions was 618 billion Tomans. If the buying by the realists continues and the value of the transactions grows to an acceptable level, we will soon see the revival of the stock market.

*** Evaluate the basic market transactions of the stock exchange

The base market also hosted 101 symbol trades yesterday. Meanwhile, 12 shares (12%) remained positive and 56 shares (55.4%) traded against the control. We were in the negative range. In this market, 12 symbols (12%) formed a purchase queue worth 78.3 billion Tomans and the sales queue in this market was allocated to 79 symbols (78.2%) with a value of 1132 billion Tomans. The government is now trying to support the stock market with all the support tools it has lost. 3 out of 10 government sponsorships were recently announced. In a letter to Nobakht, Dejpsand, Rahmani Fazli and Hemmati, Nahavandian has announced 3 of the 10 supports.

According to this communiqué, we must wait for the injection of one percent of the National Development Fund into the stock exchange, the cancellation of approvals and sections of the ban on granting stock purchase facilities and granting 5-year residency to foreign investors on the Tehran Stock Exchange.

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