The issue of entering the Iranian stock market is an issue that has a history of at least three years and is not an issue that policymakers have recently been interested in. In this note, we will refer to the analysis and clarification of the issue of car entry into the commodity exchange. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Losses of car manufacturers in Iran
The issue of carmakers’ losses in Iran is a topic that has been covered in the news recently. The issue of carmakers’ losses means that the cost of producing a car for them has exceeded their sales. One of the issues that contributes to this accumulated loss is the issue of economic sanctions and the high cost of production of auto parts, and the other issue is the weakness of management systems and lean car production and waste reduction in the issue of car production.
Domestic car companies are in a very good position in terms of sales turnover. But it seems that the technology of the car manufacturers’ production line is one of the bottlenecks in the process that increases the cost for the manufacturer and the consumer. Despite all these conditions, this year the car manufacturers announced that they are in a loss-making situation and that is why the demand to increase the price of Irankhodro and Saipa was approved by the government and we witnessed an 18% increase in the price of car factories.
*** The main defendants are car manufacturers
The main culprits of carmakers’ losses are poor productivity, waste, and wasting financial resources on previously politicized investments. But the important point is that all this is not the most important factor for the carmaker to enter the margin of loss. Rather, it is the most important factor in orderly pricing in the automotive supply chain. The issue of mandatory pricing in the steel market has also created many challenges, but unfortunately this issue has spread to other markets and caused similar damage.
Prices are monitored by different sources and the automaker does not have an effective position in the current situation for pricing and bidding. We may be happy to increase car prices in the short term by eliminating the mandatory pricing system, but the market will soon reach equilibrium and we will see a steady decline in car prices in the medium term.
The Competition Council still decides on car factory prices, and although it has increased its price review from once a year to four times a year, carmakers are still talking about losses. According to the latest financial statements, the three major automakers in the country in the first half of this year have experienced a loss of 12 thousand and 600 billion tomans in production, which in total their accumulated losses have reached 40 thousand billion tomans.
*** The reason for the government’s decision to sell the car on the stock exchange
This accumulated losses and the inefficiency of car companies led the government to decide to sell the car on the stock exchange. On the other hand, the government does not have enough funds and liquidity to pay and inject money in the current situation to provide a subsidy of 120,000 Tomans to 60 million Iranian households. Therefore, the government is ready to sell shares of 40,000 billion tomans in several stock exchange industries. One of these scenarios is the sale of cars on the stock exchange and helping the growth of shares of automobile and parts companies, which can provide a significant part of this capital.
*** Is there a requirement for a car to be listed?
The main question that arises is whether the government can provide the necessary liquidity alone from the sale of cars on the stock exchange? Was the government willing to do this voluntarily or is there a requirement for the car to enter the stock market?
In response, it should be said that with the approval of the parliament resolution by the Guardian Council, related to the payment of subsidies of 120 thousand Tomans for the supply of basic goods to 60 million people, the government was ready to sell shares of 40 thousand billion Tomans in several stock exchanges. It can be halved, but it may have consequences that are beyond the scope of this discussion.
But the point that is important to point out is that the sources of this subsidy are about 40 thousand billion tomans from the capital market and the government is obliged to sell 18 thousand billion tomans of the remaining shares of refineries, 12 thousand billion tomans of industrial companies such as Iran Khodro And Saipa, 7 thousand billion Tomans of banks and insurances and 2.8 thousand billion Tomans of installments of government shares should be provided.
*** Cross-sectional decline in the stock market
With the sale of shares in banks, petrochemicals and automobiles, we will most likely see a cross-sectional decline in the stock market, because it will be similar to what we have seen in the last two months. The heavy outflow of legal entities from the index shares caused negative days for the stock market.
Of course, the government is expected to support the stock market by offering attractive preemptive rights to index stocks and stocks with high liquidity in the long run. But it should not be forgotten that confidence in the stock market has recently returned and people can not afford heavy losses. For the second time and in a situation where the profitability process has not yet been completed. This issue can have serious consequences for the Tehran Stock Exchange.
With the entry of cars into the commodity exchange, we will see the growth of production and increase the speed of supply in the market, and practically car manufacturers can benefit from the benefits of this partnership without the need to sell from the stock market and only in the form of investment. We will see a drop in the price of domestic cars, but it seems that this issue will not have much effect on the price of foreign cars.
*** Deliver car prices in the market and factory
Because of the whispers of bringing market and factory prices together about cars Iranians are likely to see a significant drop in domestic car prices in the long run. Of course, this depends on fluctuations in the value of the dollar next year.
In the short term, the price of cars will probably increase. Because the dollar has stabilized at prices close to 26 thousand tomans and the excitement caused by the US election has practically subsided and the dollar is slowly increasing in price. It will be a commodity and will most likely cause a temporary increase in car prices.
Also, if the orderly pricing of cars is eliminated, it is likely that prices will reach a point where they reduce the losses of manufacturers to zero. Therefore, this issue will most likely lead to the growth of car prices in the market.
*** Benefits of offering a car on the stock exchange
Regarding the entry of cars into the commodity exchange, the director of stock exchange studies recently announced that when the car is offered on the stock exchange, resources such as providing Qarz al-Hasna loans will be allocated to the carmaker, which will reduce the cost of the car. The stock exchange identifies prices in the open market.
The supply of cars on the stock exchange makes the price transparent, and we will no longer see taste prices for cars, and we can refer to the price on the stock exchange board. In general, it can be said that the supply of cars in the stock market is a good thing that, if done properly and in accordance with the principles, will control the prices of cars and spare parts in the long run.
این مطلب بدون برچسب می باشد.