This morning, a group of protesting shareholders gathered in front of the Exchange Organization building. Slogans were chanted at the rally against the stock exchange organization, and some people threw eggs at the organization building. With this incident, a bitter joke has been raised among the traders that in today’s gathering, an egg was hit on the glass of the stock exchange organization, so the symbol of Simorgh will prepare for its Sharpi ascent! In this note, we will deal with the bottlenecks of the stock market path. Please be with Artan Press until the end of this note.
*** Continued decline of the entire stock market index
In short, all markets have entered a recession. As the overall capital market index and the negative atmosphere prevail in this market continue to decline, some channels active in the stock market have received the news that the Presidential Institution has sent letters to all banks, ministries and companies and their subsidiaries to support Capital Markets to attend an urgent meeting apparently held yesterday afternoon; Is called.
But what impact will these stock market declines have on the steel market in the current context? In response, it should be said that in the meantime, some currents are trying to succeed in riding on this atmosphere created in the negative market governing the capital market, the new regulation of the country’s steel market that takes months to compile and review and summarize those meetings. Eliminate numerous experts from all relevant organizations and bodies and enter the market in an environment where matching transactions are revived and a new rent distribution is created. It remains to be seen where the steel market will move in the coming days, especially in the last ten days of Trump’s presidency.
*** Priority of supply in the domestic market through stock market
According to some clauses of the steel market regulation procedure, the discussion of the priority of supply in the domestic market through the commodity exchange and then the issuance of export licenses is emphasized in this outbreak and apparently operationalized, which seems to be in addition to the recent challenge between 70 or 80. Percentage of determining the base rate of the commodity exchange; Another challenge is this issue, which has made some of this challenge between the Ministry of Silence and the steelmakers more prominent these days than in the past.
Of course, there are speculations that, contrary to the psychological pressures created in some of these cyberspace; It seems unlikely that the style will be suspended so easily; The point is that not all markets are currently immune to the negative effects of the falling dollar; Including the capital market, which is not immune to the traces of this psychological space; And now these negatives have become an unreasonable excuse to hit the market and an opportunity for some to form a negative atmosphere for some of the efforts to suspend the new steel market regulation. We hope that decision-makers in the steel sector will pay attention to this issue and be able to capture the pulse of the market and control supply and demand regardless of fundamental changes.
*** Falling dollars and coins
With the stock market index going to a height of 1.2 million units, coins to the 11 million channel and the dollar falling to the price of 24,920 Tomans, it is as if the markets suddenly have a disturbed sleep; A turbulent sleep that will historically lock all of Iran’s financial markets for the next two weeks, and all transactions in all areas will face supply and demand challenges. Industries and manufacturers are likely to block supply due to uncertain exchange rates, and buyers are temporarily discontinuing their purchases and demand due to waiting for further reductions.
Another issue that puts Iran’s markets and economy in a state of turmoil is the debate over the uncertainty of the future of Iran-US talks, the inflationary outlook, the hope of lifting sanctions and lowering inflation expectations. America is in a state of suspense and hope.
*** The next 2 weeks in the state of suspension of fear and hope
It is estimated that we will eventually be in a state of suspense for the next 2 weeks. In the next two weeks, liquidity will not go anywhere and will be in the park bank accounts. Of course, the data show that the flow of money into fixed-income funds is on the rise, which is a money-parking approach in the sense that liquidity is currently looking for a safe haven to return, and then investors decide that Which way should they go?
Although more than two months have passed since the US presidential election, the unconventional behavior of the loser in rejecting the result on the one hand and his record of unpredictable performance on the other hand had caused even 10 days left of Donald Trump’s tenure in the White House. For some it is considered ambiguous and possibly risky.
*** Procrastination of Iran’s trade relations
In the field of Iran’s economy, this atmosphere is more or less prevalent, so that both business partners and oil buyers and foreign exchange debtors of Iran are delaying in fulfilling their obligations and conducting trade relations, and inside investment market participants, including stock exchanges and foreign exchange, an unforeseen risk factor. Take into account in their calculations and behavior.
This risk, of course, was greatly reduced by the events of last weekend and the scandal caused by the behavior of Trump supporters. Accordingly, with the safe passage of this period and the establishment of the Biden government, it is expected that by reducing the general risk of Iran’s economic environment, both the possibility of currency openings will increase and the behavior of investment market participants, especially in the stock market, will be more risky.
*** How to determine the base rate in the stock market
Regardless of the price challenge and the dispute over how to set the base rate on the commodity exchange, the recession seems to be deep.
All sub-markets of domestic markets including currency, gold, stock market, car and. Among the country’s domestic steel market, it has cast a shadow these days, so that even emotional shocks and psychological stimuli no longer work.
Most markets are terribly asleep these days, and these days we look at every market we see, the intensification of the recession, and the cessation of positive movements and the challenge of the recession. It seems that these events are only due to the “decrease in inflation expectations” of the people at the same time as the increase in hopes for some international openings and the possibility of a fall in the dollar. The same events caused the total index of the stock exchange to fall by 24,000 units yesterday, reaching 1,285,000 units at the end of today’s trading.
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