In recent months, we have seen a very sharp increase in housing market transactions in Tehran and other metropolitan areas of Iran. This issue originated from various issues in the Iranian economy that we will address in this analysis. Please be with Artan Press.
Last year, we saw an increase in housing prices in all months compared to the same period last year. But last month, under the influence of declining risk, non-economic risk and inflation expectations, as well as falling prices, in parallel housing markets such as the dollar and coins, we saw a decline and at least a halt in housing growth, which is clearly evident in Tehran housing transactions.
In October 1999, we saw a 3% growth in housing transactions, which is the lowest growth rate in the past year, and it can be inferred that housing transactions have entered a phase of decline. Since in Iran, losses always accompany the formation of sales queues. Regarding housing, we also see heavy queues and traffic in the sales files of housing companies.
*** Heavy housing market
With the fall in the trading prices of the dollar and other currencies, as well as the ceiling on gold trades, the driving forces of rising prices in the housing market have practically ceased and the market is no longer strong enough to grow. On the other hand, we are witnessing a sharp decline in demand for housing in Tehran. One of the reasons for this could be that the liquidity in the society does not meet the expectations of homeowners in any way and has made this market heavy.
If we look at car transactions alongside real estate transactions, we come to the conclusion that the behavior of automotive investors has shifted from consumerist behavior to investment. Because capital and liquidity in the hands of people do not allow them to enter the housing market. That is why people are moving towards investing in the car market. That is why, despite the relative decline in prices in the car market, we are witnessing an increase in trade, sales, and car exchanges these days, and even holidays and travel restrictions due to the Corona crisis have not caused much damage to car transactions. Is.
*** Increasing the rate of decline in housing prices
It is likely that stray capital in society will move to the stock market, and we will practically see continued growth in the stock market. If this hypothesis is correct, it is likely that the downward trend in housing prices in Iran will continue at a faster pace. Another issue is the return on investment. The return on the stock market fell by 50% in November. In the foreign exchange market, prices fell by 9% and the coin market fell by 17%. Therefore, in the current downward market, the stock market is the most suitable place to hold capital. The return on investment in the housing sector is expected to reach negative 20% in the next 6 months.
One of the issues that strongly affected the excitement of the markets and sometimes had a downward effect on the markets was the issue of eliminating the increase in interest rates on bank deposits. Many low-risk capitalists active in the market sought to enter the issue of bank profits as the markets declined, and the practical elimination of this issue caused some of the capital to turn to the stock market. This is enough to destroy the few courses of hope in the housing market and see the continuation of the decline in this market.
*** Definitive version for the housing market
Housing is usually one of the investments that its ups and downs are slow and gradual. Usually I do not see immediate changes in real estate transactions. But usually any trend that occurs in the market will remain the main approach of the market for a long time and it will take at least six months for this trend to change. We will most likely see prices fall in at least six months.
The US election and the confrontation between Iran and the US on the issue of Borjam is an issue that has the greatest impact on the country’s financial and economic indicators. If the political risks are reduced, the process of falling housing prices will accelerate and we will see reforms in all markets. Currently, a definitive prescription for housing cannot be made for $ 26,000. We have to wait and see how the government performs in the final months. If mortgages and other financial incentives to buy housing are well distributed in the community. We are in a situation where we can lead the real consumer to become a housewife.
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