Iran’s economy is based on the dollar, and in a way, the cornerstone of Iran’s economy can be considered the free market dollar rate. In recent days, with the end of the Trump presidency approaching and the inauguration of the Harris and Biden administrations, the trend of currency prices in the country is moving towards a twenty-one thousand toman with a gentle but emotional slope. In this section, we will analyze the changes in the dollar exchange rate in the market and the resulting aftershocks. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Stability of losses in the foreign exchange market
The declines in the foreign exchange market have stabilized and the desire to sell has strengthened this issue. The price of the dollar, which was traded at 25,000 Tomans last week, has now reached 21,000 Tomans, and the increase in sellers in the open market has led to Nima So that buyers can hold hands right now.
*** End of speculation in the dollar field
Some time ago, regarding the end of speculation in the foreign exchange market, an analysis was awaited from the Artan Press website, and now we are witnessing this. Biden’s victory in the elections caused Iran’s political leaf to change and Iran’s political playing field to undergo major changes. This was enough to lower the inflation expectations of the society and to weaken the price of the dollar and the euro against the rial at home. Of course, the fall of the dollar in the world markets is also something that has helped to quickly reduce domestic rates.
*** The possibility of continued decline in the dollar and gold exchange rates
The price of gold and foreign exchange is likely to continue in the coming days, and it is not too far-fetched to expect that if the same situation continues in the market, the price of the dollar will fall below 20,000 tomans and the price of coins will fall below 9 million tomans.
One of the most important reasons for the decline in gold and foreign exchange prices is the market’s optimism about US developments and the end of Trump’s presidency.
*** Inability of the universal ounce to control falls
Today, despite the value of the global ounce rising by about $ 7, the price of gold and coins fell sharply due to the fall in the exchange rate and the lack of demand. Due to the declining trend of the global ounce and the dollar, as well as the lack of demand, the price of gold and coins is likely to fall further by the end of the week. Under normal circumstances, it was enough for this growth to take place in the foreign market to see a ten percent growth in the price of gold. But the current situation shows that supply and demand in the market still play the leading role.
*** Damage the gold market from the dollar
In Iran, the pricing of the dollar and gold is calculated by a formula. Therefore, it is not bad to have a look at the significant declines in the gold market. The price of each piece of Emami coin decreased by about 300 thousand Tomans compared to Saturday to 10 million Tomans and the old design coin decreased by one million to 9 million and 300 thousand Tomans. One gram has been reduced to two million and 100 thousand tomans; Also today, the price of each ounce of gold is four million and 65 thousand and each gram of 18 carat gold is 938 thousand tomans.
*** The failure of the technical resistance of the dollar
The dollar is losing its resistance one after another. The last time the market went to the channel of 22,000 Tomans in late October, and after that, it had an upward trend. For this reason, the 22,000 Toman region is very important for foreign exchange market traders, because if the American banknote stabilizes below 22,800 Tomans, it will pave the way for a new group of sellers to enter the market.
*** The spread of falling dollars to the organized market
The organized market dollar is on the verge of entering the channel of 20,000 Tomans. In the organized market, the exchange rate trend is sharply declining. In the last fourteen hours, the price of the dollar in the composed market reached 21080 Tomans and the euro reached 25510 Tomans. This is while the exchange rate in the Nima system is far from other markets; The price of the dollar in this system is 24984 and the price of the euro is 30897 Tomans.
*** Why is the exchange rate more expensive in Nima system?
The exchange rate announced in the exchange and the market is usually announced for small transactions, but in the Nima system, due to the fact that exporters and importers are active in it, transactions take place on a larger scale. Also, short-term developments in the foreign exchange market can not be considered as a serious criterion for the fate of this rate in the coming months.
However, maintaining the mentioned range can help return the price of the dollar to the channel of 24 thousand tomans. With the start of trading today in the Tehran market, the price of gold and coins will decrease again. The following is a very scary day for sellers in the market and it is possible that there is no buying for gold and dollars.
*** The latest prices of gold coins
According to the latest rates announced by the Tehran Jewelry Union, the price of Emami coins decreased to 10 million and 200 thousand and old design coins to 9 million and 700 thousand Tomans. The price of a half coin reached five million and 500 thousand, a quarter coin reached three million and 450 thousand and a one gram coin reached two million and 100 thousand oman. 18-carat gold in today’s market reached 981 thousand tomans, which is 20 thousand tomans cheaper than the last price on Saturday.
*** Impact of dollar falls on the car market
With the dollar approaching the channel of 20,000 Tomans, the number of transactions has almost zero and the fall in car prices can be seen every 10 minutes. Over the past few days, due to the depreciation of the dollar, prices in the car market have decreased, and we are witnessing falling prices in the market every day. This price reduction is much more evident in the foreign car sector.
If the dollar falls in the same way, prices in the car market will continue to fall. Due to falling prices, buyers They are more hesitant to buy a car; In a way, there is a seller in the market but not a buyer. The buyer will be reluctant to buy until prices fall and stabilize.
*** Dollar exchange rate forecast in the medium term
At a price of 22,000 tomans, the volume of liquidity is about 130 billion dollars, which is about half of the average from 1392 to 1396. Money is now less than $ 30 billion, which is low. Given the slowdown in liquidity growth in recent months, liquidity will have no effect on the dollar rising for at least the next year. Public incomes in dollars reached one-second to two-thirds three years ago, and the purchasing power of goods and the demand for dollars have plummeted. The intensification of the stagflation will also cause the situation to move towards the depreciation of the dollar.
*** Alignment of the world stock market and the dollar
World stock markets lost $ 800 billion in value last week due to news of the corona expansion, stimulus packages, poor employment and retail performance in the United States, rising dollar indexes and rising bond yields. This week, the growth of the stock index will be highly dependent on the reduction of bond rates and the growth of corporate income in the last quarter of 2020, and we have to wait to see if foreign factors will affect Iran’s exchange rate.
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