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    Investigating the trend of the half dollar and its impact on the iron market

    شناسه : 32023 01 آبان 1399 - 11:23
    Based on the latest exchange rate in the Nima system on 14 October, the purchase price of the dollar was set at 23 thousand 689 Tomans and the purchase price of the euro at 27 thousand 771 Tomans. The selling price of the dollar in the Nima system was 23 thousand 259 Tomans and the selling price of the euro was 27 1,551 Tomans has been set.
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    Regarding the situation of the iron market, the board of directors of the Iranian Steel Producers Association has considered the real price of rebar to be 12,000 Tomans, which can be increased to an acceptable level by the price of products in the iron and steel market with more and more accurate monitoring of capital demand. Controlled.

    The price of the US dollar in the Nima system had a decreasing trend yesterday, October 5, and based on this, the selling rate of the Nima dollar reached 23,259 Tomans.

    Based on the latest exchange rate in the Nima system on 14 October, the purchase price of the dollar was set at 23 thousand 689 Tomans and the purchase price of the euro at 27 thousand 771 Tomans. The selling price of the dollar in the Nima system was 23 thousand 259 Tomans and the selling price of the euro was 27 1,551 Tomans has been set.

    *** New formula for turbulent dollar market

    Some iron experts believe that this market turmoil should be addressed by changing pre-determined formulas so that the effect of a constant exchange rate change on the price of steel products is reduced, and on the other hand, to solve the problem of smuggling of steel and steel sections, Steel products should be priced in dollars. In recent weeks, due to the rising dollar of steel products in the iron market, it has become an attractive market for investors, which has led to a further increase in the price of this market.

    Some iron market activists want to prove their theory that world prices for steel products should no longer be calculated in Rials in Nimai currency, because in recent months the Ministry of Silence has not considered Nimai currency for pricing steel products. The basis of free market currency is determined.
    However, some members of the board of directors of the Steel Association believe that the half dollar rate is the most basic component in determining the base rate of steel products in the commodity exchange. Despite these conditions, the rebar rate is announced to be approximately the same as 12 thousand Tomans. It can be concluded that there is no bubble for the rebar rate and this price is the real rebar rate considering the tax.

    *** The dollar exchange rate changes half a week

    “It is undeniable that the exchange rate is out of the hands of the government in the open market, but the central bank can control the half dollar, as it did last week after the announcement,” said a senior stock exchange expert. Petrochemical prices were the highest, especially while world prices did not change much, and this was due to a five percent increase in the dollar rate.

    He also added: “If we observe the rebar and beam transactions in the past years, it can be seen that it has not increased much, eventually it has increased by half to one percent. But the announced price and they are not willing to reduce it is calculated based on the exchange rate.” Which has a weekly increase of 5% and naturally affects the products.

    *** Fluctuating factors in the steel market

    The double exchange rate along with the pre-purchase of hardware are among the factors that cause fluctuations in the steel market, which have doubled the price of rebar.

    If the price of half a dollar from the end of April to the first week of October has increased by 62% and the price of free currency has increased by 79% in the same period, the price per kilogram of rebar in the senior open market has doubled from 5900 to 12300 tomans. Is. Also, the base rate of each kilogram of steel ingots has increased by 127 percent in the same period and has reached from 3,600 tomans to 8,200 tomans in transactions on the first day of October. Similarly, the average transaction rate per kilogram of steel ingots in the commodity exchange also increased from 4,000 Tomans with a growth of 150% to 10,000 Tomans in transactions on the first day of October.

    *** On what basis is the half and free currency?

    Observing the changes in the exchange rate of the half and free currency and its comparison with the base rate of steel ingots and the average trading rate in the commodity exchange in the first half of this year shows that in a situation where free and half exchange rates are far apart, the trading rate of products The base rate goes away.

    In the meantime, those who can buy from the commodity exchange take good advantage of the difference between the price of the half currency and the free currency. Nimai on the floor, again, can not be controlled by market orders. What can be seen from the difference between the price of half and free currency is the rent provided to buyers from the commodity exchange, who are generally producers. In these circumstances, the decision to close the price gap between free and half currency is reasonable. A rate will cause rent-seeking.

    Some iron market activists disagree with experts in the field who believe that rebar prices are bubbling in the market these days. However, they believe that the price of steel products in the open market is still lower than similar global prices.

    *** Dependence of iron and steel on half currency

    Ever since the Nimai dollar entered the Iranian economic literature, it was predictable that the prices of many commodities, including iron and steel, depended on it. It was assumed that the Nimai dollar rate would be fixed over six months in order to stabilize the prices of commodities. Priced with this currency, but unfortunately the half dollar exchange rate fluctuated sharply, especially in the first six months of 1999, and this trend overshadowed all iron and steel pricing equations.

    Regarding the recent fluctuations in the iron market, two factors are important. The first issue is the global changes in the prices of iron and steel. Since steel is the most important and strategic industrial commodity, recent inflammations have increased the attractiveness of the domestic market. Limitations of

    Existing has reduced producers’ incentives to export. On the other hand, the government’s austerity measures to restore export currencies have reduced the desire of steelmakers to establish export strategies. The dollar was half free

    *** Manufacturers’ approach to the rising dollar

    Rising dollar has had a direct impact on energy and transportation carriers in the steel supply chain. Manufacturers have taken two approaches. One approach is to reduce profit margins in order to maintain a competitive advantage. The second approach was to increase prices. This is one of the reasons for the recent fluctuations in the steel market

    The possible approach in the current situation is to reduce the dollar rate because the structure of Iran’s economy is not planned for rates above 25 thousand tomans and the continuation of the rising trend of the dollar in micro and commodity dimensions is to the detriment of the economy. The price of the dollar will continue in the coming weeks. With the change in the movement of the dollar, prices in the iron and steel market can be expected to adjust. On the other hand, with the reduction of overhead costs in the production of iron and steel We will see a base in steel and iron transactions.

    Artan Press

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