After more than 50 years of the history of the stock market in Iran, unfortunately, the Iran stock market has not yet reached the maturity to be able to influence the most obvious scientific equations and factors, and analysis and technical signals have given way to news excitement. In this memo, we will deal with the aimless and fruitless fluctuations of the Iranian stock market in the past few days. Please stay with Artan Press until the end.
This week, we saw three consecutive days of growth in the stock market, and with the index crossing the border of one million and three hundred thousand units, the expectations of the index growth to one million and seven hundred thousand units were quite reasonable. On Sunday, we saw shopping queues in the symbols of instrument, mineral and metal. Every time a buy queue is formed in these symbols, we see the long-term growth of the market for at least a week, but this issue soon gave way to sales queues, which was a surprise to many expert analysts.
*** Emotional orientation of the stock market
Since the Iranian stock market is moving with excitement these days, today the lottery was called sales, and at the end of the trading, we saw sales in the levels, so that the whole index decreased by 3.1 percent. The excitement of selling in the market today peaked in the final time of the market and the index eventually dropped by more than 18,000 units, but the point to consider was the resurgence of the value of small trades; Some small shareholders with small purchases accompanied a part of the market with hope for the next day, so that the value of small transactions today reached about 22 thousand billion tomans.
But this was not the only important point of the market today, because along with the 1.35% drop in the overall index, the weighted index grew by 0.76%. In other words, smaller symbols performed better against indexing symbols such as “Fars”, “Famli”, “Foolad”, “Shasta” and “Kegel”, which had the most negative impact on reducing the overall index. Usually small stocks in markets similar to Tuesday’s market fall victim to the index symbols. But the high volume of retail transactions overcame the impact of index makers.
*** Iranian stock market is dependent on the behavior of legal entities
Unfortunately, we are in a market where legal entities have made good profits from fluctuations, and sometimes after a few positive days, we see heavy sales from legal entities. In the current situation, the Iran stock market is highly dependent on legal behavior, and if the signal to leave a symbol is issued by a legal entity, that share will not be happy for a long time. This is in a situation where there are valuable and pure shares in the stock market that the game of legal forehand has razed to the ground.
If growth has occurred in the stock market, it is only in the number of transactions and people entering the stock market, and unfortunately, all the main growth indicators in the Iranian stock market are in a serious recession. For example, equities in stock exchanges had the same ratios in previous years, and we only saw cross-sectional growth, and any growth that has occurred has been practically corrected by a few declines.
An issue that has challenged the one-sidedness of supply and demand is the liberalization of the sale of equity. Many of the real people in the market would have sold their entire equity portfolio much earlier than these days if they had the opportunity. The government, in order to control the supply on its own, did this on a cross-sectional basis that the number of stock exchanges traded. Be controlled.
*** Justice stock price
In the current situation, the stock price of Adalat has been corrected due to the sub-shares in the record, which has practically caused the stagnation in sales and purchases to return the value of the shares of these companies. In today’s stock exchange transactions, the daily value of 36 companies in the portfolio of justice shares for holders of shares of 500 thousand Tomans reached 10 million and 998 thousand Tomans. As of August 10, 60% of justice shares as well as shares of provincial investment companies were traded on the stock exchange.
Midwifery funds, on the other hand, are supportive of the Iran Stock market, and their existence increases the real share of real stockholders, and the stock exchange experiences more stable conditions in practice. Fortunately, Dara Fund has passed one of the market reforms in the last month with good conditions and has been able to maintain its value.
More than 3 months have passed since the application was submitted for the purchase of a portion of the remaining government shares on the stock exchange in the form of tradable funds (ETFs); Studies show a return of 174% of the net worth of low-income assets and an increase in the NAV of this fund to 5 million and 472 thousand tomans. The value of low-holding shares in the Tehran Stock Exchange has reached 3 million and 924 thousand tomans.
*** The inflow and outflow of real money into the market
The net inflow and outflow of real money to the stock exchange has been from the first of Azar to the 4th of Azar as described above. At the end of the trading day, December 25, 2016, the net inflow and outflow of real money is about negative 331 billion tomans. The inflow and outflow of real money this year has been as follows:
In December of this year, about negative 38 billion Tomans, in November of this year, about negative 8,307 billion Tomans, in October of this year, about negative 15,144 billion Tomans, in September of this year, about negative 18,900 billion Tomans, in August of this year, about positive 21,745 billion Tomans. In July of this year, it was about 35,352 billion Tomans, in June of this year, it was about 9,027 billion Tomans, and in May of this year, it was about 25,099 billion Tomans.
What can be clearly seen is the outflow of heavy money that has taken place from the legal side of the market and has actually caused the recent fluctuations. What is clear is that the Iran Stock market participants are struggling to return to the peak days in May and June of this year. But it seems that because the main actors do not want to own shares, this What happens will be challenging.
*** Growth and profitability of listed companies
In order to examine the growth readiness and profitability potential of stock exchange companies, with an example, we examine one of the marginal companies of the stock exchange, in which the inflow of smart money was much less than the index shares to show how much potential this market has. It has growth and investment. The sales amount of Sahand Rubber Industries Company during the first 8 months of 1399 was about 138 billion Tomans, which compared to the same period last year (91 billion Tomans) has grown by about 51%.
Also, the sales of this company in November of this year was about 20 billion Tomans, which compared to the same period last year (12 billion Tomans) had a growth of 63%. Sahand Rubber Industries, Company in 1998 had sales of about 140 billion Tomans. These figures are enough for this industrial company to see a heavy buying queue in Tehran Stock Exchange transactions. But unfortunately, uncertainties have taken over the stock market and shareholders and analysts do not value the value and fundamental principles of stocks.