It seems that the fundamental floor of the dollar rate is 26,900 tomans. In other words, in the short term, no matter how much the dollar rate decreases, when it approaches this number, it will face a very heavy resistance. The fundamental floor of the dollar rate is accompanied by margins. Some believe the dollar will rise. Some consider the dollar to be twice its intrinsic value.
The Tehran Stock Exchange faced a sharp drop in the overall index after a three-day shutdown and reopened on Sunday with a 3% drop. This dashed hopes for a steady rise in the index, prompting analysts to consider stock market and capitalist strategies.
Although the global ounce of gold has not changed significantly from the previous days and has been fixed at $ 1,900, but the price trend of domestic gold has decreased, which is due to a significant increase in the dollar compared to yesterday, so that the US dollar through the channel of 29 thousand Toman has returned to 28 thousand Tomans and today the price of USD is 28 thousand and 500 Tomans, Euro is 33 thousand and 300 Tomans and UAE Dirham is 7 thousand and 850 Tomans.
recently, the Economist Analytical Journal revealed the state of Iran's economic growth, noting that Iran's economy has been on a downward trend due to the damage caused by the Coronavirus epidemic and the consequences of unilateral US sanctions, until a rate by the end of this year.
This will have a direct impact on all global markets, including gold, which we will address in this analysis. In less than a month until the 2020 US election, political tensions in the country are rising. Rising US political risk alone could be the main cause of rising global gold prices.
Two important decisions of the central bank in the field of banknote market and Nima system forced the dollar fluctuators to retreat from the buying position. The first decision, which was delayed, was to bring the selling price of bank exchanges closer to the open market, and the second decision was to raise the price ceiling in Nima system transactions.
The US dollar index recovered to 93.62 on Monday, recovering slightly from its value lost in recent weeks and rising 0.2 percent. One of the main reasons for the dollar's rise was the release of promising US economic data last week, including a drop in the US unemployment rate to 10.2 percent. The US national currency was able to record a positive weekly return last week after six consecutive weeks of decline against a basket of five major world currencies.Following the failure of negotiations between White House officials and the Democratic Speaker of the US House of Representatives, the main focus of the markets is now on trade negotiations and the future of the US-China trade war. Over the past few months, the price of gold and ounces has moved almost in the opposite direction, but if the level of tensions between Beijing and Washington increases, it is possible that the dollar can return to the upward path as a safe haven for assets.
Over the past week, the price of an ounce of gold has risen significantly by 3 percent, with the value of this safe haven rising for a moment on Friday to $ 2089, a record high for gold. While the value of gold could easily gain a foothold in the current global economic climate above $ 2,000, analysts believe that gold could easily cross the $ 2,100 mark.
Many analysts saw the devaluation of the dollar in favor of global trade and ultimately in favor of the global economy. The US dollar index has fallen more than 9 percent since April, and experts expect the value of the world's most important economy to fall by 15 to 20 percent over the next five years. However, a group of analysts believe that the devaluation of the dollar could be a major threat to the global economy, at least in the short term. Contrary to the depreciation of the dollar against the currencies of developed economies, the value of the dollar has risen against the currencies of developing economies and emerging markets since the beginning of the corona outbreak. This issue, which analysts and various institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, can pose a major threat to international trade and the global economy.
According to the ounce price trend on Friday, gold, after 9 consecutive weeks of rising, left last week behind the price drop. The global ounce, which had risen for nine consecutive weeks and during which it was able to break its record high of $ 1921 and enter its third millennium with great strength, last week faced a negative correction of a negative price of 4.29 percent.
The governor of the central bank introduced four healthy options for financing the budget deficit: "reducing financial costs", "increasing tax revenues", "selling government shares and property" and "issuing bonds or pre-selling goods such as oil".Abdul Nasser Hemmati's remarks show that the first three options face limitations; Because the capacity to increase tax revenue and reduce spending for the government and parliament in the shadow of the corona is limited, the issuance of bonds is being pursued despite obstacles. But from the point of view of the monetary policymaker, the fourth option, known as the economic opening plan, has two advantages: first, it can manage inflation expectations, and second, it can bring more profit to bondholders at a lower cost than bonds. .Rejecting the hypothesis of indebtedness of future governments, the governor of the central bank stressed: "The issuance of any bonds is an tried and tested method for smoothing government spending and reducing economic fluctuations at the macroeconomic level." Yesterday, the President strongly defended the "economic opening".