*** Fluctuation of currency prices in the country
The exchange rate had been falling for the past two weeks, and everyone was preparing for rates below 20,000 tomans. The issue of exchange rate depreciation became an excuse to reduce prices in the car and housing markets, and these two markets experienced the strongest reactions to the sharp decline in the exchange rate. But things happened beyond the national arena that caused this downward decline all at once. They jumped in exchange rates. So that yesterday we saw a price increase of almost one thousand tomans in the exchange rate. Some attribute the rise in the exchange rate to a dispute between the government and parliament over recent political decisions. In this memo, we will address the differences between the parliament and the government regarding the country’s political outlook and its impact on the rising dollar. Please be with Artan Press.
*** reaction of the national exchange office
When the price of currency fluctuates in the country, everyone looks to the reaction of the national exchange office to recognize the direction of changes in the price of currency. National Exchange today, due to some inflammations in the underground foreign exchange market, was forced to increase the selling rate of the dollar during its activity today, along with 620 Tomans, until the last closing rate announced by the board; Announce the sale price of 25,620 Tomans. Meanwhile, there were whispers of further price growth in the open market, which affected many buyers in the foreign exchange, housing, car and gold markets, and practically revitalized the markets.
Since the price of gold in Iran is based on the dollar and is somewhat linearly dependent on the daily price of the dollar. The estimate of the gold dollar at this moment shows the figure of 25,500 Tomans. We heard that some market analysts also attributed the cause of inflammation in the foreign exchange market to the news of the approval of the “Strategic Action Plan to lift sanctions.”
*** Approval of the strategic action plan for lifting sanctions by the parliament
Regarding the approval of the Strategic Action Plan for the lifting of sanctions by the parliament, it should be noted that the parliament approved the plan on Tuesday, and since there are disagreements between the parliament and the government, political uncertainties increase the excitement and increase The exchange rate has led. Under the plan, Iran will waive its executive obligations under the NPT and return to its level of free enrichment. Due to this issue and a very clear difference between the government and the parliament, the dollar became more expensive by 850 Tomans and the gold coin by 800 thousand Tomans. This emotional and irrational reaction can be considered even worse than the behavior of the foreign exchange market with the news of the assassination of Martyr Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
Wednesday is a very sensitive day to rate and determine the short-term trend of the exchange rate and gold. If positive news is published from Borjam and other political challenges of the system, we will see exchange rate control and return to the prices of the last ten days. But if positive news is not published and domestic and foreign political developments stabilize the process. And to challenge predictability, a rise in the dollar by the end of December is likely to overshadow Iran’s financial markets.
*** A sharp rise in steel prices due to the change in the exchange rate
Another issue that has its roots in the recent inflammation of the foreign exchange market is the sharp rise in steel prices due to the change in the exchange rate. It is worth mentioning that the inflammation of the domestic steel market today and the sudden increase of 500 to 1000 Tomans in prices are mainly related to the implementation of the new market regulation method and a sharp increase in the base rate of ingot supply in the commodity exchange. If you were not lucky enough to apply for climbing; But in the end it led to a sharp rise in the rates offered by the domestic market. These developments promise an increase in the exchange rate, at least within a month, which is strongly dependent on political excitement and transnational political impulses.
It is worth mentioning that in the meantime, regarding the mechanism for determining the base prices of steel products on the Commodity Exchange, according to the new procedure; Exchange rate criterion; The average rate of weekly remittance is buying and selling dollars (about 25730 Tomans), which is currently higher than the selling rate of currency banknotes in the national exchange board.
*** The government opposes the view of the parliament
The government has officially stated its opposition to the parliament’s views and called for a review of the country’s withdrawal from international treaties in the nuclear field. In this regard, government spokesman Ali Rabiee has stated that the accumulation of 20% enriched uranium as well as the non-implementation of the Additional Protocol will lead to the permanence of sanctions. He analyzed that if these treaties were to be abandoned, then there would be no need for nuclear negotiations and the IAEA.
Iran did not implement the Additional Protocol before accepting the BRICS agreement and had hundreds of kilograms of 20% enriched uranium, and despite all these interpretations, it has been subject to the toughest international and multilateral sanctions by the UN Security Council. It is necessary to review the literature of the plan and the results that the parliament seeks to achieve and seek an operational solution to reduce the costs of international treaties.
*** Trump seeks maximum pressure on Iran
In the last month of his rule, the Trump administration has sought to increase the cost of its elimination for Iran. Therefore, it does not shy away from any attempt to hit the Iranian economy and put maximum pressure on it. Since the announcement of the US election results this morning, Trump has sought to create tension in the Middle East and, in effect, to put pressure on the Iranian government and government to gain Israeli support in the region and strike at Iran through the Israeli channel.
The dollar is in a situation where its price expectations for the long term and even in the middle can not really be expected Predicted duration. The deposit of one thousand billion tomans of the resources of the National Development Fund to the stock exchange, the approval of the urgency of reviewing the strategic action plan for lifting sanctions in the parliament and the possibility of canceling IAEA inspections of nuclear facilities yesterday Lead different.
In the current situation, the remittance rate is a problem that announces the future of the exchange rate in the free market. In the current situation, the dirham remittance rate has reached over 7,000 Tomans. If the dirham goes above 7,200 tomans on Wednesday, we can expect more growth in the domestic market.
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