In economics, the issue of price fluctuations is inevitable. Since the dollar has entered many of Iran’s economic sectors and is practically an influential factor, its fluctuations strongly affect commodity markets. But the important question is that Where does the dollar land? What numbers will the short-term targets of the dollar in the current market approach? Will we see stability in the foreign exchange market in the coming months, or will fluctuations continue to plague commodity and service markets? In this analysis, we address the issue of the dollar price outlook. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Reduce the volume of gold and coin transactions
On the first day of the last month of autumn, gold and coin transactions decreased significantly in terms of volume, because in the current situation, the liquidity of society and people has reached the minimum possible, and practically the value of the rial is felt more than before with the start of the holidays caused by the corona crisis.
On the one hand, the decrease in liquidity had attacked the recession in the foreign exchange market, and on the other hand, due to the low supply of dollars and gold, fewer sellers were willing to sell gold and foreign exchange by activating their loss mechanism and practically enter the loss phase. . Because most of those who are waiting for the market to fluctuate are traders who last month bought gold and foreign exchange with a short-term view, and their profit prospects have not been realized at all.
Prior to the US election, there were dollar prices that practically reflected the bubble nature of the exchange rate and gold. Many foreign exchange market analysts believe that whatever the outcome of the US election, we will see an upward or downward emotional behavior, after which the downward trend in the exchange rate and gold will resume. This came true and we saw the dollar fall after the election.
*** The latest exchange rate in the Nima system
The latest exchange rate in the Nima system was announced today, the first Saturday of December, according to which the purchase price of the dollar was set at 25,940 tomans, and the purchase price of the euro was announced at 32,218 tomans. There are also reports of the euro replacing the dollar in global trade, which could lead to a medium-term drop in the dollar and a weakening of the currency in the Iranian market. It seems that the end of the dollar’s dominance over the financial markets is approaching and practically other currencies such as the euro and the Japanese yen will enter the world’s monetary policy.
The global community of interbank financial communications (Swift), which manages the exchange messages of more than 11,000 financial institutions in 200 countries, shows that last year the euro was the most widely used global currency, despite the economic shocks that The United States has been severely weakened by the corona virus, and the way has been paved for the euro to overtake the dollar. Is ahead.
*** Relative growth of the dollar price after Biden preconditions
On Saturday, it was reported that the Biden administration had set preconditions for a return to a nuclear deal, which would effectively extend the length of the deal. Analysts have concluded that in the Biden administration, too, the path to negotiations will be a long one, and the path to negotiations is unlikely to be smooth. For this reason, on Saturday we saw a relative increase in the price of the dollar by three hundred units, which is likely to increase slightly in the coming days.
The dollar exchange rate is expected to be stable in the short term, but the result will be gradual and volatile upward, because the market is not yet free of inflammation and has the potential for emotional growth. A very important point that the audience should pay attention to is that the current gold and dollar market is by no means a good environment for an amateur to fluctuate and earn money.
*** Scenarios for the rise or fall of the dollar
Field studies by Artan Press analysts show that even market makers are not able to take the risk of entering the foreign exchange market, and in practice dollar market speculators are waiting for sub-signals from the future of Iran’s economy and political issues to decide whether to enter the market and sell empty. Therefore, in the current situation, all scenarios for the growth or fall of the dollar are possible and it is not possible to determine a definite path for it.
If the price of the dollar rises only 500 tomans in the coming days, we will see the entry of money into the foreign exchange market and parallel markets. The closure of the markets, as well as the lack of real buyers and consumers in the car market, has caused prices to stagnate and fall, but if the dollar shakes a little and goes up, it will see a rise in prices in the car market and accessories and even accessories. We will be home.
*** Inability of the government to reduce the exchange rate
As Iran’s oil record in the first six months of 1999 has decreased compared to the same period last year, so one of the most important sources of foreign exchange in Iran has been challenged and this issue has made things difficult for people inside Iran who need foreign exchange. .
Total non-oil exports in the first six months of this year amounted to 18 billion and 200 million dollars. Also, $ 2.4 billion worth of oil was exported during this period. If we compare this amount with the same as last year, the sale of Iranian oil has decreased by about $ 2 billion. This issue is tied to the government to reduce the exchange rate, and therefore we can not see the entry of real currency price channels, ie 19 thousand. It was Tomans.
If the negotiations between Iran and the new US administration lead to clearer paths, and the US for The arrival of the green light to show that the price of the dollar can be imagined at real rates for a period of 9 months to the next year. Consider and seek to solve the challenge.