The total index of the stock exchange in the last trading day of last week has dropped by about two thousand units to one million 470 thousand units, which is an unprecedented upward trend in the past two months. Analysts now believe that there are components in next year that will lead to more prosperity and growth in the capital market. In this memo, we intend to discuss the impact of the parameters in 1400 budget and their impact on the capital market. Please stay with Artan Press until the end.
*** Inflammation enters the capital market
Unfortunately, the country is currently in a situation where the influential economic forces have not moved in one direction, and this conflict is weakening the strength of the country’s economy and households. Last week, we witnessed a sharp disagreement between the government and the parliament over Iran’s commitments and the cancellation of international conventions, which were introduced in the parliament following the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, and this dispute ended in inflammation of the dollar and gold markets.
Two days after the inflammation of the gold and dollar markets stabilized, we witnessed the entry of these inflammations into the capital market, and one of the reasons why the stock exchange ended the week after recording ten days of greenery at the end of Wednesday with the fall of the week was the lack of final conclusions. And set the roadmap for Iran’s nuclear route and Iran’s international commitments.
*** Main revenues of 1400 budget Selling bonds and selling stocks
In one of his speeches on next year’s budget, Hassan Rouhani stated that “the sale of bonds and the sale of shares constitute the main revenues of our budget.” This one sentence was enough to attract the attention of many shareholders. The fact that the government considers a part of its capital in the stock exchange along with the sale of securities as its long-term income can be very attractive for many government shares. Brought. The president’s remarks did not end with just one sentence, and in addition to his remarks, there was also talk of government policy in the last months of his tenure.
He said that as in previous years, we are interested in offering shares of state-owned companies and 95,000 billion tomans have been foreseen in the budget for the sale of shares, which will cause people to enter the economy and transfer management to the people and can create good conditions for the country.
Selling stocks and bonds as much as we need is our source of income, and on the other hand, part of the oil market share may be sold. If the government shares are offered on the stock exchange in a short period of time, we will see the days on the stock exchange that we experienced in October of this year. Therefore, next year’s budget will be like a double-edged sword for the capital market, and we must see which aspect will be more prominent in the government’s performance.
*** Oil sales in 1400 budget
Making government revenue from selling stocks and selling oil in the domestic market are the two main approaches the government is looking to generate revenue next year. Of course, new approaches to taxation of companies and individuals are being planned, which is estimated to bring about 8,000 billion tomans in tax revenues to the government. Therefore, the government is likely to have better sources of revenue in 1400. From this year, the new government will be run with a more appropriate budget.
The absence of the head of state in the session of presenting the budget bill to the parliament and the amount of budgets considered in the field of economy was an issue that was not far from the eyes of the media and the reasons and scenarios that led to this issue were covered in various news networks. Some believe that this has happened due to the disagreement between the government and the parliament in recent days, while others have reported the government’s dissatisfaction with the balance between government revenues and expenditures and a kind of government policy on budgeting. .
*** High revenue and expenditure gap in the 1400 budget
There is a huge revenue gap and expenditure in the government 1400 budget . This causes the government to offer its shares in the market and sell its coins. So next year we will most likely see the supply of shares of state-owned companies and the sale of state-owned land and real estate, the continuation of which could send shocks to the stock market, the dollar and gold and housing.
If the government wants to sell its shares on a large scale next year, it must provide the grounds for the growth of the capital market this year. Many traders are likely to trade at a loss and profit margin, and this will not allow the overall index to grow rapidly and may upset the equities of government stocks for buying and selling.
*** Opening of the first refining box
The opening of the first refinery is another issue that goes back to the 1400 budget shocks . Unfortunately, since the reopening of this share, it has caused constant losses for the shareholder, and despite the fact that it took more than 60 days to reopen, it entered the loss phase on the second day, which severely damaged the confidence in buying government shares. Is. With this approach, it seems unlikely that the government will be able to meet its revenue expectations through the capital market.
On the other hand, there are rumors about the offering of Dara III shares, which due to the poor record of the first refining stock, it is likely that there will be very little interest in buying the shares of this fund waiting for the market. Because the necessary support has not been provided for the shares of the government fund, and despite the patience of the shareholders for two months, the results do not meet the expectations of the shareholders.
*** Special government program for next year’s scholarship
The government has a special plan for the stock market for next year. Implementation of budgeting steps is strongly related to the development of stock exchange infrastructure and strengthening the trading core and, more importantly, to building trust in all segments of society, including real and legal shareholders.
Given the sharp fluctuations in the capital market since the beginning of the year and the unrealistic growth that has led to false profits for some shareholders and severe losses to others, is it possible for people to rely on government offerings? Whether or not this is an issue that the government should pay close attention to. The budget bills for 1400 show that the government will open a special account on the stock exchange next year and wants to earn 95,000 billion tomans from the capital market. But will people re-enter the stock market and buy government ETFs?
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