The drop in world oil prices comes as two OPEC members, Iran and Venezuela, have been exempted from an agreement to reduce oil production to cover part of the sanctions losses, and have expanded supply in recent months as production has increased. With the news of Trump’s illness coming to the oil market and oversupply, crude oil prices are expected to fall for six-month and nine-month periods.
The United States last week witnessed a new wave of outbreaks of the Corona virus, which has had a significant impact on the commodity exchange market and the stocks of the trading giant’s factories.
But the news of the US President’s infection with the Corona virus has cast a heavy shadow over the psychological atmosphere prevailing in the capital markets and has created different scenarios in the political, economic and industrial affairs of this country, not all of which can be addressed in one analysis. Evaluated and analyzed the various factors that have the greatest impact on the world economy. Because one factor can be the key to several events. For example, Trump’s popularity and the support of big American investors’s heavily dependent on the stock market, and anything that causes the collapse of the stock market, the S & P500 and commodity exchanges in various states will be to Trump’s extreme detriment, and all The achievements of four years will blow him away.
*** Trump’s coronation and its consequences for the US market
The first victim was the news of Trump’s bankruptcy of the US stock market. As soon as the news of Trump’s illness broke, Wall Street stocks began to decline significantly, so that the average index of the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 134.09 points, which is why Chiri fell nearly 0.48 percent to 27,682. 81 units closed and the market showed more potential for decline. At the beginning of yesterday’s trading, the index had fallen 430 points in the first reaction and seam of his disease shocks.
The negative news of the Wall Street stock exchange started in a domino size with the size of the American markets, so that the stock market index experienced a momentary drop of 0.96% and ended at 3,348.44 units. The index had fallen 1.7 percent in the initial reaction to the news of Trump’s illness. Similarly, the composite index of Nazdak stock fell 2.22 percent and returned to 11,075.02 units.
*** The impact of Trump’s illness on oil demand
The oil market experienced a drop in prices with the news of the US President’s coronation. Brent crude, which is one of the main sources of feed for US factories, fell $ 1.47, or 3.6 percent, to $ 39.4 a barrel following the announcement of Corona Trump. The reason for this was the contraction and decline in demand following the fall in the stock market of American industrial companies. The viral shadow that Trump has long tried to show ineffective to economic indicators and practically conceal its consequences caused the index Brent crude fell three times last month to below $ 40 a barrel.
The news of Trump’s coronation is generally not good news for investors and oil activists. With the fall of the stock index and the growth of the industrial stock markets, we will see new oil shocks in the coming days and a decrease in demand and a drop in oil prices in all parts of the world. Therefore, in the short term, the prices of Brent oil, North Sea, Iranian oil and Persian Gulf are expected to decrease by at least 3%.
The drop in world oil prices comes as two OPEC members, Iran and Venezuela, have been exempted from an agreement to reduce oil production to cover part of the sanctions losses, and have expanded supply in recent months as production has increased. اند. With the news of Trump’s illness coming to the oil market and oversupply, crude oil prices are expected to fall for six-month and nine-month periods.
*** The different behavior of gold after the news of Trump’s illness
Gold behaved differently in different political challenges and did not make any exceptions in this regard and continued to grow. The price of an ounce of gold in the global market is on track to record its best performance this week. The trading price of an ounce of gold today increased by 0.65% to $ 1898 and three cents. The global gold price will rise until contradictory news about Trump’s general condition is published.
*** The behavior of the dollar in the Trump illness scenario
The news of Trump’s illness will have the greatest impact on the price of the dollar in international and Iranian transactions. The more serious the issue of Trump’s illness, the greater the damage to the value of the national currency. With the change in his physical condition and the news of the deterioration of his blood oxygen level, the price index of the dollar in the Forex and Nezdak exchanges decreased compared to other international currencies.
*** The impact of Trump’s illness on the Iranian stock market
Almost all markets in the world reacted negatively to the positive of Trump’s corona test, but the situation in the Iranian stock market was slightly different, so that on Saturday and the first day of the domestic stock exchange, there was an upward trend for the entire market. This issue did not affect the market as a whole and caused the positive trend that gradually prevailed throughout the stock market to continue regardless of this news. Of course, because the stock market fluctuations in the Iranian market and in the current situation are severely dependent on the price of the dollar with the fall in the price of the dollar, in the middle of the week we saw a temporary decline in market trends.
*** The impact of Trump’s illness on the steel market
The summary of all the analyzes presented in the previous sections is aimed at planning and creating a steel market outlook in a situation where the news of Trump’s illness can affect the steel market. Therefore, it should be examined whether this issue will have an increasing or decreasing effect on the stock market prices of Iran and the world.
Regarding the foreign steel exchange, it should be noted that their short-term pricing is strongly dependent on the price of oil and raw materials. On the other hand, with the value of the dollar compared to other world currencies, it is likely that the cost of steel production for producers will decrease and prices will become more competitive in the international market. As prices become more competitive in World commodity exchanges, as well as the desire to produce more supply in the market has increased and is expected to decrease the price of steel products by increasing supply and responding to market demand.
*** International steel market
So in the short term, if the news of Trump’s illness peaks, we will see a drop in steel prices and a decrease in futures trading rates in the international steel market. Conversely, if Trump comes out of the emergency and follows the normal course, this will be a tool to strengthen the price of the dollar and a relative increase in prices.
In Iran Steel Exchange, however, the situation is different from foreign commodity exchanges. Due to the increase in the price of gold and the growth of the price of the dollar in recent months, the market is very inflamed. The issue of Trump’s illness is not really a serious scenario in the trade right now, and this issue has practically no role in increasing inflammation and is only a pretext, but if more important news is leaked and Trump’s condition worsens. As a serious scenario, the price of the dollar is expected to fall and reduce market inflammation. For a more accurate analysis of maturity conditions, it is necessary to evaluate the various variables.