The global oil market is in a very vague and unpredictable situation at the end of last week due to speculation that the UAE was on the verge of leaving the organization and was an oil exporter (OPEC). This was an excuse to analyze the latest developments in the oil market. Please ask until the end with Artan.
This is a conference that is practically fruitful to date, but otherwise the OPEC minister and advisers are trying to change what the UAE is looking to examine and explain its possible messages to the UAE and other OPEC members. . But it is likely that this new event will open and there will be many attacks on the oil market.
Reports that Abu Dhabi is considering withdrawing from OPEC have reached you, while the UAE is another key member of the foundation that pays for it. This has been heavily crafted by unofficial sources, but has recently been reported by reputable media organizations, so what you think can be explained in most cases is what is needed in the oil market.
*** The UAE is one of the largest oil producers in the world
According to reports from the latest OPEC developments, the withdrawal from OPEC was one of the scenarios considered by the UAE because the organization was skeptical if it needed to increase its capacity in January, and in practice I consider this to my detriment. Let’s not forget that the UAE is one of the largest oil producers in the world, and in fact, it generates more than 80% of the country’s revenue on the basis of oil sales, and practically reduces the commitment, because it causes the country’s economy in the corona era.
The UAE, as one of the least energy-consuming producers in OPEC, has a chance to maximize its revenue and pursue national strategic interests outside the agreement, which is why OPEC’s request has been rejected and it wants to withdraw from the OPEC agreement. Despite all these conditions, it does not offer any restrictions or schedule for its withdrawal from OPEC.
There has been compelling evidence to prove that the UAE has been in power since the month before the idea of leaving OPEC. During the summer, the UAE refused to comply with OPEC Plus restrictions and its share of cuts, and officials said they would increase production to Hungarian level to meet domestic demand, using the OPEC hierarchy. He somehow trampled on Plus.
*** Declaration of UAE implicit allegiance to OPEC
Following the media coverage of the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC, Al-Mazrouei, the UAE Minister of Energy, implicitly declared the UAE loyalty to OPEC, emphasizing his role as “a trusted and long-standing member of the OPEC” who is always on par with OPEC. And “transparent” budget, he stressed. This allows me to acknowledge that the UAE’s departure was most likely a one-off and a deadline. This is most likely and is usually unlikely to be organized by a tailgate outlet
Some energy experts consider these reports to be exaggerated, even unrealistic, but this ignorance easily creates costly risks in the Persian Gulf oil market. However, there are forces in OPEC that push the UAE out of OPEC to increase resistance to the country. For example, the Strait of Hormuz is in the hands of Iran and manages oil transit through this route. With the withdrawal of the UAE from the OPEC agreement, it may be looking for you to withdraw the negative containers of this country due to having the necessary conditions for the UAE, if you continue these conditions.
*** Oil market damage from the exit of the UAE
Some oil market analysts believe that Saudi Arabia cannot leave OPEC, noting that doing so would do great damage to the organization and, as a result, to the global energy markets on which the Arab United States depends. This unilateral withdrawal could also be detrimental to other oil distributor complaints in April. Why is the UAE not in any of the world’s oil agreements and there is no theory on its operation?
Apparently, the oil markets do not believe in talking about the exit of the UAE, and so far they have not fluctuated or made an impact on this issue. Due to the sharp jump in crude oil prices in the days following the emergence of speculation, it is likely that the excitement of this issue has left the oil market and the market has changed.
*** The possibility of falling global prices
In recent days, however, Brent crude traded above $ 45 a barrel at the end of last week, despite the stories and scenarios that have been presented in the event of the end of OPEC and the over-expectation of Libya. You do not think that anything is more catastrophic than the disintegration of OPEC in this regard. If these divisions continue, the price of the collapse of the Persian Gulf and Brent oil will also have a budget, and this is exactly what is being pursued from East Asia, especially China.
It is true that the complaint of the OPEC member has a few weeks of sensitivity ahead. Increasing or not increasing since January is a fundamental idea that will bring health and profitability of oil markets in the near future, because in 2021 behind the COVID-19 vaccines and as a result of the return of the economy to prosperity and improvement of the oil market will be revived. And the outlook for Black Gold will be closer to its heyday.
But it is unlikely that you will find that the energy transports of Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two leading forces in the OPEC, also have to deal with any imminent al-Qaeda threat from Saudi Arabia. Continued confrontations in OPEC to its collapse and the destruction of Prices in the oil market will lead. In the current situation, the situation in the oil market is not at all satisfactory, and with the addition of challenges of this kind, it becomes difficult for all oil-producing countries.
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