Recession is an issue that has overshadowed the Iranian economy for more than two decades and has only disappeared from the dictionary of the Iranian economy in a short period of time. The elimination of the recession in the Iranian market is usually highly dependent on Iran’s international interactions, and whenever the vital arteries of money and wealth in international trade are easily provided to Iran, we have witnessed the removal of the shadow of the recession in the Iranian economy.
The International Monetary Fund is a highly regarded body for the economic situation of countries and the changes in the value of their currencies in world trade. Every year, the institute reports on the economic situation of the countries, which is very close to reality, and the data provided by this institute is the basis for decisions for all brokerages and economic actors.
*** Negative economy growth in Iran in 2020 and positive growth forecast in 2021
In this regard, and based on the latest economic developments in Iran in the field of sales of oil and other minerals and on the other hand, the heavier shadow of US economic sanctions, the institute in 2019 had estimated Iran’s economic growth very negative (this amount is about 9.46% was calculated) Of course, this was only a good part of the story that the return of economic sanctions following the withdrawal of the United States from the UN Security Council and the ban on oil exports, is one of the main reasons for the decline in Iran’s economic indicators. He predicted Iran to be -5.98 percent and 2021 to be 3.12 percent positive.
*** What factors have caused 8% growth in the Iranian economy in one year?
Now the question arises that what factors have caused the growth of about 8% in one year in the Iranian economy? Has Iran’s economic situation stabilized after a period of severe sanctions and has Iran’s economic resilience to sanctions grown? Has self-sufficiency in Iranian industry led to growth, or has Iran been able to circumvent sanctions more cleverly every day and contribute to its economic dynamism? These are all questions that have attracted the attention of many analysts in international journals, and some of their expert opinions have been placed on these topics.
Contrary to the optimistic view of the International Monetary Fund, the Program and Budget Organization has a different view of Iran’s economic growth. The forecast of the budget program organization has been formed due to the impact of Corona and the increase of Iran’s tensions with the United States, which we will actually reach on these issues, and the impact that these two factors have had on Iran’s economy is undeniable. However, the International Monetary Fund had predicted a promising trend for Iran’s economic growth in the coming years, but due to the Corona crisis and other political problems with the United States, Iran’s economic growth in 2020 is estimated at -5.98. Is.
*** Iran’s economy growth rate in the first half of this year
In the current situation, Iran has been able to maintain a large part of the economic challenges in terms of macro indicators. For example, according to the Statistics Center of Iran, the economic growth rate in the first half of this year with the sale of oil is 0.2 positive and without the sale of oil – 0.2 – negative. This means that Iran is likely to emerge from the recession this year, and if the political equation in Biden’s time goes in Iran’s favor, we will see more sales of oil and other Iranian products in international markets, which is why. It alone can meet a large part of the country’s foreign exchange needs.
In order to have a clear view of the economic situation in Iran and to assess the situation of recession and inflation in the future conditions of the country, we must point to the most important factors that have had the greatest impact on the production of recession and inflation in the country. We will pay attention to the economic downturn in Iran:
*** US and EU sanctions
Undoubtedly, the most important factor that has posed many challenges to Iran’s economic prosperity is the issue of US economic sanctions and the closure of Iran’s economic exchanges with international markets. Due to its geographical nature and having unique resources of oil and other metal mines and access to open waters, Iran has a unique growth potential in the short term. But unfortunately, the political situation has developed in such a way that Iran has not been able to reach its potential. Use it well.
It is expected that with the improvement of the political situation in the Biden era, the ways of world trade for Iran will be created a little easier than in the Trump era, and the countries will have more courage to enter the Iranian market. Unfortunately, in the current situation, these sanctions have led to Iran’s economic downturn in several ways, including a sharp decline in oil revenues, exchange rate fluctuations and instability, the rule of a multi-currency system, more difficult financial and commodity exchanges with foreign countries and increased risk and Uncertainty and reduced economic security noted.
*** Impossibility of selling oil
The sharp decline in oil revenues is a big challenge for Iran, because Iran owed a large part of its revenues to the sale of oil, and from the first days of tightening sanctions, oil has always been a tool to cut off Iran’s economy from international markets. You have always witnessed a severe recession in the domestic market at a time when Iran’s oil sales have been challenged, a level that has not been offset for years and the consequences have been felt on the dollar and other household necessities. .
The decline in Iranian oil sales has always been one of the most serious causes of the economy recession in the Iranian market. The reason for the recession was due to the decrease in oil sales, the staggering increase in prices, the inefficiency of domestic production and the increase in prices.
It has challenged both the consumer and the consumer. As soon as oil revenues fall significantly, the economy faces a negative shock and the economic growth rate slows sharply. Accordingly, the oil embargo, through its sharp decline in oil revenues, has had the effects of a severe recession in the Iranian economy over the past two years.
*** Exchange rate jumps
In recent years, exchange rate jumps have been a common and relatively stable issue in the Iranian economy. From 1992 to 1999, the exchange rate increased tenfold, which has happened in less economies in the world. With the increase in the exchange rate, the purchasing power of the public should be drastically reduced and the government will be forced to print money to control this issue. This issue has been formed in the Iranian economy for about two decades and has challenged the markets.
In recent months, we have witnessed a decrease in the exchange rate and its entry into fixed prices. Of course, this has not been provided yet. Currency instability has also led to a recession through widespread uncertainty; Therefore, in the short term, currency jumps and instability have finally left the effects of a rapid and strong recession in the country’s economy. If the exchange rate stabilizes by the end of the year, we will see a sharp decline in the market recession, and it can be claimed that the key to exiting the recession has begun in Iran.
*** Hardening of Iran’s financial and commodity relations with global markets
Iran’s financial sanctions have been imposed through cutting off Iran’s financial channels and sometimes blocking the country’s capital, and in the worst case, confiscating Iranian property abroad in recent years. This path is unlikely to see the color of good days in the coming years. But if in the Iranian political arena it protects its foreign assets or opens new financial channels to Iran, we will see growth and prosperity in Iran’s commodity and currency exchanges. In such circumstances, we will see the economic growth of the country and move towards an economy without recession.
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