Dr. Keyvan Jafari Tehrani warned the government to adopt export facilitation policies because if it fails to find a suitable policy for Put steel exports on the agenda, Iran’s steel export position will decline to 20 from last year’s 16th in the world, which coincided with Spain, and Iran will be after Poland with exports of six million tons.
Iran is the tenth largest steel producer in the world and the sixteenth largest exporter of this commodity in the world market.
Given the limited reserves of iron ore in the country, it is not unlikely that we will soon face a decline in our country’s export position in this area, as countries such as China and India play a significant role in export markets, as well as exploration and extraction of significant iron ore reserves. The title of raw material and essential required for steel, have taken appropriate measures to increase production and presence in international markets as much as possible, so that even the first, second and third wave of the corona, which is said to affect people at the end of the year. And global markets will also not be able to hamper the development planning of these countries.
*** Decline in Iran’s global position in the field of steel production and exports
At the same time, Iran is facing many problems not only due to iron ore and corona shortages, but also due to the lack of proper planning and effective policies, it can face a decline in its global position in the field of steel production and exports.
Accordingly, Dr. Keyvan Jafari Tehrani, Senior Analyst of International Minerals and Steel Markets, analyzed the latest situation of the steel and iron ore market in recent weeks and warned the government to adopt export facilitation policies because if it fails to find a suitable policy for Put steel exports on the agenda, Iran’s steel export position will decline to 20 from last year’s 16th in the world, which coincided with Spain, and Iran will be after Poland with exports of six million tons.
*** Steel market situation due to the outbreak of the second wave of the corona
He also spoke about the state of the steel market in August, given the outbreak of the second wave of the corona in the world. While this figure shows a difference of about 10 times compared to the amount of Iranian iron ore reserves, which is about 3.5 billion tons (with tolerance), it means that India’s iron ore reserves are 10 times more than Iran.
In an interview with Radio Foolad, the international expert pointed to the problems caused by the corona in the field of demand and said: “Currently, China, with a production of 996 million tons in 2019, is the first steel producer in the world.” . India is in second place with 111 million tons. Japan is in third place with a production of about 100 million tons and the United States is in fourth place with a production of 88 million tons. Meanwhile, Iran is in tenth place with a production of 25.6 million tons.
*** China is in a relatively good position in terms of corona
Jafari Tehrani, stating that the first country, China, has a relatively good position in the corona situation because it got out of this crisis earlier than all other countries, said: “It is interesting that the second country, India, which is also a strong competitor in Iran’s steel exports, Used during the quarantine period, ie in late April and during the month of May, it was able to take good measures in the field of steel. In fact, in addition to restricting traffic and closing mines, India has shown good management, so that in the current situation, we see that the Indian steel industry is operating and producing at maximum capacity.
He continued: “This is while Japan and the United States are not in a good situation and naturally this issue has affected their production as well.” In other words, the second wave of the corona is currently having the greatest impact on the US and Brazilian markets, which are the fourth and ninth largest steel producers in the world, respectively.
“As a result, because the world’s two largest steel giants, China and India, are still in the market, the situation is such that demand and production are high and it is interesting that most of India’s production is now Exported to China.
*** Increased iron ore production by Australia and Brazil
According to him, August is in a good situation due to the high price of iron ore, which plays in the range of $ 110, which is the highest price record in the past year and a half. Meanwhile, rainfall in southern China will decline in August. But the reason that worries everyone is the increase in iron ore production by the world giants, namely Australia, as well as Brazil.
Jafari Tehrani added: “Fortescue Group (FMG), which is the third largest producer of iron ore in Australia, has increased its production sharply and this issue has caused concern among some because it will increase the supply of iron ore in the world market during late September and October.” شد.
He continued: “Therefore, anything that happens in the field of iron ore will more or less affect the price of steel.” But during August, when we are in the earliest days, the market will be good. Meanwhile, in terms of steel prices, we see that the price of Iranian billets and slabs is also recording a record and shows figures higher than $ 390 per ton FOB.
“India has been able to not only maintain but also increase its production,” he said, stressing that we must seize the opportunity to export as much as possible. Therefore, considering the long-standing competition between Iran and India in the steel industry, it can be said that the growth of this country’s production will also affect Iran’s export market.
*** Exports of 9 million tons of steel
Senior Analyst of International Minerals and Steel Markets In 2019, India ranked 12th in the world in terms of export tonnage with exports of 13.4 million tons. According to the World Steel Association, in the same year, Iran ranked 16th in the world with 8.7 million tons. Interestingly, Iran and Spain are both 16th in the world, followed by Iran and Spain, with exports of 7.3 million tons. In the meantime, of course, in the figures announced by Imidro, Iran’s exports have been over 9 million tons, but in any case, the statistics announced by the World Steel Association and Imidro are close to each other and are a short distance away.
According to Jafari Tehrani, according to these statistics, Indian steel exports are about five million tons more than Iran. India also imported steel last year because it had a good market. So if we want to talk about numbers, last year India imported 9 million tons of steel and exported exactly 13.4 million tons.
He continued: “These statistics show that if India exports, it is only for the presence in the world market.” In other words, steel sales within India are 15 percent more profitable, and this is one of the signs of importing 9 million tons of steel. India intends to be present in the world market at any cost, which means that India needs steel in its domestic market, but it also intends to increase its presence in the world market.
*** India strives to increase its presence in the global market
The international expert added: “According to the announced statistics, the difference between India’s exports and imports or India’s net steel exports was 4.4 million tons.” While Iran exported 8.7 million tons of steel and did not import anything. Therefore, Iran’s net exports last year were higher than India. But let’s not forget that India’s domestic steel sales, despite a 15 percent profit, are ready to enter the global market at any cost.
“Everyone thought that India’s iron ore reserves, like Australia, were just hematite,” said Jafari Tehrani. has it. However, this figure shows a difference of about 10 times compared to the amount of Iranian iron ore reserves, which is about 3.5 billion tons, which means that India’s iron ore reserves are 10 times more than Iran.
*** India’s secret policies
He continued: “It is interesting that out of this 33.3 billion tons of Indian iron ore reserves, about 10 billion tons are magnetite reserves and 23 billion tons of which are hematite reserves.” So far, India has been hiding reports that it has rich reserves of magnetite.
Jafari Tehrani added: “Until now, we thought that if India does not export 58% or more, it will not only export your support, but according to a new report from this country, we realized that India not only does not export 58% or more, but no It does not export any grades of magnetite, and this was one of the policies it secretly adopted.
*** Iran’s most dangerous export competitor
According to this international market analyst, if India plans to produce 300 million tons of steel by 2030 and is the second largest in the world, it is in fact based on rich iron ore reserves, which has a long-term plan in this regard.
Jafari Tehrani added: “This is while the policies adopted in Iran regarding exploration, extraction, production of iron ore and exports were not a program that could support the country for the next 10 years.” Therefore, in my opinion, given India’s active presence in the export market and its rich iron ore reserves, it will be one of Iran’s most dangerous competitors in the field of Indian steel exports. Therefore, we must start our planning from now on, both to maintain exports this year and to increase production and exports due to the second wave of the corona, which will be very difficult.
*** Impact of the third corona wave on Iran’s steel industry exports
He said: “According to a tradition, the third wave of Corona at the end of the year will also affect the export of Iran’s steel industry.” Therefore, the government should adopt policies that facilitate exports as much as possible.
This means that if we can not break last year’s record of 8.7 to 9 million tons, but at least get closer to these figures. According to this international expert, according to the reports analyzed by me, the position of China and India in the field of exports is very strong, and if Iran can not adopt a proper policy for steel exports, Iran’s steel export position will be from 16th in the world last year. It was in line with Spain, it will drop to 20th place, followed by Poland. Therefore, these cases should be given special attention by the government.
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