The possibility of China becoming the world’s largest economy, the country that is now the world’s largest producer and exporter of goods, poses many threats to rival countries such as the United States, and more importantly, commodity markets will undergo a profound and serious change.
Chinese culture and civilization, however, has a step-by-step movement and acceptance of political and economic tensions, as well as serious resistance, so China’s path to becoming the world’s number one economy can also have historical infrastructure. The main threat in this process of economic development comes most to the United States, and if for any reason the United States is no longer the number one power in the world, the continuation of its economic movement will undergo profound changes.
For this reason, the trade war between China and the United States should also be considered from this perspective, especially since the beginning of the trade war, the distance between the economies of China and the United States has not changed much, ie the US economy has been relatively successful in this regard. Is. These should be considered in line with China’s large investments, as they will provide new infrastructure for China’s economic development.
*** Transformation from a commodity-based economy to a leading economy
China’s transformation into the world’s number one economy in the coming years is one of the issues that could affect the future of commodity markets. At present, the United States and China are at the top of the world GDP, and their GDP is far from the rest of the world. This issue also makes the competition for the top of the world GDP table related to these two countries.
China is the world’s largest exporter of goods, and a significant portion of China’s economic growth in recent years has been driven by its production of goods and its extensive domestic consumer and export markets. But the situation is different in terms of service exports, and while the United States is at the forefront of service exports to the world, China has little to say. Accordingly, China’s growth in the services sector, especially technology-related services, is crucial in making the country the world’s number one economy.
*** The largest consumer of basic metals in the world
In recent years, China has pursued the path of self-sufficiency in many basic metals, and while being the largest consumer of base metals in the world, it has also become the largest exporter. However, experts believe that the continuation of the current trend in the country will not easily lead to the US economy. The fact is that China’s economy has been built on infrastructure over the years, and so the country has had steady economic growth of more than 6 percent over the years, which alone is not enough, and China can only curb economic shocks.
But optimistic estimates show that if China achieves its goal based on using the capacities created in this country and investing more in research, construction of new universities, 5G internet, etc. The future will be different, and it will be possible for the country to reach the US economy in 2028, and change the shape of its economy, and in fact have a say in the world of technology and services. With the knowledge that the Chinese have, they will invest in a new direction in this situation and will continue their usual routine and will use their past capacity.
*** The end of the oil age prematurely
Alireza Kolahy, president of the Electricity Producers Syndicate, said at a meeting to review China’s economic growth and its impact on the future of world commodity markets: “Unlike many energy researchers, I believe the oil age will end by the end of this decade and this will change the world economy and market.” Meanwhile, countries like Iran, whose economy is more dependent on oil, suffer more. Therefore, it is necessary for Iran to have a new plan for the oil-free economy and how to create oil-free economic growth.
He continued: “In 1989-68, one year after the war and despite all its losses, Iran’s GDP was by far the first in the region.” But today, the UAE, with a much smaller population and area, is ahead of Iran. In fact, after the Cold War and the formation of the new world order and the rapid economic growth that most countries in the world had after that, Iran remained on the path of strong development.
He continued: “China’s higher economic growth than the United States means that it has become the world’s top economy.” In the last 500 years, 16 times, an emerging power has challenged the ruling power, and 12 of them have ended in war. So it remains to be seen what will happen as China grows and its economy outperforms the United States. The Cold War between China and the United States has already begun, and Trump, under the pretext of the Corona virus, has accelerated many of the events that could have taken place over the years, exposing many issues.
*** The new Silk Road determines the trade route of the world commodity markets
Keyvan Jafari Tehrani, Senior Analyst of International Metals and Minerals Markets, at a meeting to review China’s economic growth and its impact on the future of world commodity markets. Pointing to the road between the country and the rest of the world, he said: “This clever plan will help China become the world’s top economy as quickly as possible.”
Xi Jinping, the current president of China, who became president For the rest of its life, the country has been pursuing a plan to expand its economy through the new Silk Road from the beginning. After choosing his travels to different countries of the world, including Iran, Shijingping began, the result of these trips was influential in the process of trade relations between this country and the Silk Road. During his first post-election visit, the Chinese president also traveled to Saudi Arabia, where he met with then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who changed the route of the Silk Road and was connected from the Chinese city of Kashgar to the Pakistani port of Gwadar. .
He continued: Gwadar port is only 75 km away from Iran’s Chabahar port in terms of air distance. Until a few years ago, the location of this port was the same as the ports of Genaveh in Iran, and you could not even reach the Bahman port of Qeshm. But after this port became one of the main points of the new Silk Road, with the construction of new infrastructure in that position, this port changed completely so that now 150,000 ton oil tankers are docked there and due to the development of infrastructure in this Port In the coming years, this port will be able to accept 400,000 ton oil tankers.
*** China’s top oil imports
“China is the largest energy consumer market in the world and also the largest importer of oil in the world,” he said, referring to China’s high oil imports. China’s oil imports reach 10 million barrels per day in summer and 12 million barrels per day in winter, which is a very significant figure.
In many cases, Chinese tankers bound for China from the Persian Gulf region were hijacked by pirates in the Straits of Malacca (between Malaysia and the Indonesian island of Sumatra), so Shijingping devised a plan to import Chinese oil by pipeline. In this project, a 3,000-kilometer-long oil pipeline will be built from Pakistan’s Gwadar port to Kashgar city in China’s Xinjiang province, and thus oil from the Persian Gulf region will be sent to China through this port. The entire route is controlled and guarded by the Chinese Armed Forces.
Jafari Tehrani further referred to the role of the former president of China in the current economic situation of China and said: “China’s new industrial revolution was innovated by the former president Hu Jintao.” This person is more than having a communist ideology; He was a capitalist and his economic policies made China the second largest economy in the world, so that without him, China could not have survived the 2008 economic crisis safely. China’s highest economic growth was recorded during the presidency of Hujintao, and the country was able to record its highest GDP growth this year. All the actions of the new Chinese president were also established during the time of the former president.
*** The New Silk Road
He continued: “The new Silk Road has 5 land lines and one sea line, and with its completion, 66 countries of the world will be connected to each other.” The sixth line, the sea line, connects the east coast of China to North Africa via Hong Kong and Macao, and from there to the Mediterranean. The road also runs from Beijing to Mongolia and then to Central Asia and Latvia. With the completion of the Chinese Silk Road, it will be connected to Britain. All the cost of these lines is paid by China, but with this cost, China will be able to have good access to large commodity markets, and it is said that the operation of this road will have a significant impact on China becoming the world’s first economy.
Jafari Tehrani further referred to the US trade war with China and said: “Apart from all the cases mentioned in turning China into the world’s largest economy and also its share of world commodity markets the policies of the United States should not be ignored.” With Trump taking office as President of the United States, although China’s trade with China has declined, Trump’s foreign policy has provided many opportunities for China. US sanctions against China and other countries cause a Chinese rift between China and Iran and even between China and other countries, and this will end in China’s favor in the medium term.
*** US Trade War with China
So perhaps China is even happier with Trump being re-elected. He continued: “However, Corona disrupted all relations in the world and reduced the probability of Trump winning the US presidential election again.” Under these circumstances, if a representative of the Democrats comes to power in the United States, China will have to change its foreign policy, and this could prolong the time for it to become the world’s first economy. The international market expert went on to point out the impact of the corona outbreak on China’s economy, saying: “Although the outbreak of the virus has plagued most of the world’s economies, it may be said that it has worked in China’s favor.”
In fact, the spread of the virus has controlled and limited most of the world’s economies, giving China a new opportunity to grow. Under these circumstances, China will complete its Silk Road by 2024, thus becoming the world’s top economy in the near future. In fact, all world relations in these years have progressed before 2024, based on China becoming the world’s top economy, and perhaps this country will be able to achieve this goal by 2025.
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