Iran’s daily crude oil exports have become a mystery after the US unilaterally withdrew from the Borjam international agreement, from which occasional numbers and estimates are heard.
The figures for Iran’s crude exports now complicate the puzzle, as US sanctions intensify and show signs of increasing Iranian crude supply to the market. With the return of US sanctions against Iran, which focus specifically on the country’s oil industry and sales, the Ministry of Petroleum has pursued a policy of silence on daily crude oil exports to prevent leaks of information on how and how much Iranian oil was sold during the embargo.
However, speculation about the sale of Iranian oil continues from US domestic institutions to oil companies and institutions, as well as the media. The latest estimates of Iran’s crude oil exports suggest different numbers. The range of these numbers starts from about 100,000 barrels per day and reaches a maximum of 600,000 barrels per day. Despite these figures, the latest World Economic Forum survey of government oil revenues in the first three months of the year shows that even if Iran’s oil exports are above 100,000 barrels per day, its revenues are only less than 100,000 barrels to the budget. Has found.
*** Alternative oil in government budget
“Oil Alternatives in the Government Budget” is the title of a report that emphasizes the government’s 740 billion toman revenue from oil sales in the spring and also considering the average price of $ 20, estimates that Iran’s daily crude oil exports are less than 100,000 barrels per day. . Another scenario is that part of the total Iranian oil sales (part of the estimated 100,000 barrels per day) may be received in cash and the rest or converted into goods for purification with Oiled or blocked in overseas accounts.
Coinciding with the US withdrawal from the UN Security Council and the subsequent end of the exemption period for Iranian oil purchases by eight Asian and European countries, the US President insisted on zeroing Iran’s crude oil exports. However, using methods to circumvent sanctions, crude oil exports Iran was not zero. Bypassing sanctions for the sale of oil operates using sophisticated methods. Identifying these methods comes at a cost to the US government, and it is not possible to examine all of them in detail. Meanwhile, the companies that track the tankers try to estimate the amount and destinations of Iran’s oil exports by monitoring the movement of Iranian tankers.
Official statistics, such as the latest Chinese customs statistics, have recently become a place to identify Iran’s oil exports. According to the latest statistics released by China Customs, after the complete cessation of Chinese oil imports from Iran in June, China imported 120,000 barrels of oil per day in July, with a total value of $ 134 million.
*** Increasing Iran’s oil activity?
According to the report, two tankers, Snow and Styria, arrived in China in July with 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels of Iranian oil, respectively, and delivered their cargo.
In general, it can be deduced from various estimates and comments regarding the sale of Iranian oil that Iran has increased its crude oil sales. But the reason for the growth of potential sales of Iranian oil at this time is unclear; However, the reason can be traced to the approach of the US presidential election and optimism about the election of Joe Biden as the next US President and the revival of Burjam. In a report, Bloomberg notes the diplomatic readiness of the countries present in the UN Security Council for a situation in which Donald Trump is no longer in charge of the US presidency.
Another scenario for the possible growth of Iranian oil sales is the growth of demand for some crude oil customers under the shadow of falling global crude oil prices. China is one example of this, as oil prices have fallen in recent months, buying millet oil and increasing its reserves.
Exports of 100,000 barrels per day
Export of about 100,000 barrels of crude oil per day is one of the scenarios proposed by the “World Economy” using the figures of the government’s general budget to estimate the amount of Iranian crude oil exports. That’s less than one-twentieth of the government’s oil revenues in the spring of last year.
*** US Congress estimates Iran’s crude oil exports
ANBI News recently reported that the US Congress, in its latest research, estimated Iran’s daily crude oil exports at 227,000 barrels per day. However, after withdrawing from the Borjam international agreement in 2018, the United States emphasized that it would reduce Iran’s oil sales to zero in the short term, relying on sanctions. Iran has never denied selling oil to its customers during the embargo, but has not released any information about it.
Past experience, however, shows that there are different ways to sell oil during the embargo period; Such as turning off tankers’ radars, diverting or relocating oil cargo in open water. The Kepler Institute claimed in June that an Indian tanker named Gisel had delivered Iranian oil to China under the name of Indonesian oil. The tanker tracking institute, Tankertkers, also confirmed that 16 tankers had delivered Iranian oil to various markets by receiving Iranian oil ship-to-ship in the middle of the oceans.
*** Export of 600,000 barrels per day?
But the highest figure in relation to the daily exports of Iranian crude oil has been raised by the news network Anbusi News. This network claims Air It exports more than 600,000 barrels of crude a day, using its methods to circumvent sanctions. Data released by the tanker company also shows that Iran has recently made efforts to increase its oil exports. This information is published by these institutions in a situation where Iran always emphasizes the secrecy of its oil sales methods. However, the search for Iranian crude oil exports by various institutions continues.
After Borjam, Iran was able to restore its daily crude oil exports in a relatively short period of time to about 2.5 million barrels per day. This amount of exports was overshadowed by the return of production growth. The latest OPEC monthly report states that Iran’s daily crude oil production based on secondary sources is 1,936,000 barrels. Despite declining production and difficulties in exporting Iranian crude, the outcome of the US presidential election could play a decisive role in lifting sanctions and returning Iranian oil to the world market.
“Biden’s victory in this year’s election could be negative for oil prices,” Halima Kraft, a Wall Street analyst, wrote in a report titled “A Gift for Iran’s Oil,” quoting Halima Kraft, a commodity market analyst on Wall Street. Be; “Biden is likely to take a more lenient stance against Iran and lift sanctions, which will pave the way for the return of millions of barrels of Iranian oil to the market.”
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