At the end of today, the total index of Tehran Stock Exchange, with a significant upward trend, witnessed a growth of 26,000 units in transactions, which finally stopped at a height of 1,540,000 units.
Also, the total weighted index recorded an increase of 5,000 units, 507,197 units. Also, the total OTC index was 18,154 units.
In today’s index, the most influential symbols were “Rampana”, “Fars” and “Wabmelat”, which today the value of transactions in this market was about 9300 billion Tomans.
*** The impact of the dollar on the stock market
Late last week, most experts expected the stock market to turn green based on forecasts and believed that the stock market would start to rise in early October, but unfortunately did not go this way and the downward trend was accompanied by a low and sometimes high slope.
But the unexpected news that caught the attention of Trump and his wife was Covid 19. This news was followed by various analyzes, one of the effects of which was on the Iranian stock market. With the news of the US President’s illness, the dollar began to decline to the point that the dollar fell to 26 tomans, causing some stocks to depreciate and sell queues to form, which in turn causes the stock to depreciate further.
*** Commodities in the stock market
One of the capital market experts said: “Considering that the demand for currency has decreased less than before and, naturally, with the decrease in demand, the price has also decreased. Part of the stock market is dependent on the exchange rate due to being export-oriented.” The commodities section is the same. Due to this issue, the stock value of these parts of the stock market is declining.
Following the stock expert’s speech, a question was asked about the future of the stock market, which was answered as follows: The possibility of significant growth as early as this year in the future of the stock market seems unlikely, and other factors that contribute to this issue in these economic conditions. Most of the start-ups’ capital was out of the stock market.
*** The path of liquidity in the stock market
“On the other hand, the stock market does not follow fundamental analysis because people look at it from a political-economic background,” he said, referring to the stock market’s current liquidity. It should be noted that shareholders should be more careful because there is liquidity left in the stock market. But on the other hand, due to the effectiveness of the Iranian stock market from the news of the US presidential election, it is possible that the liquidity path will change. Therefore, the news in this field should be checked every day and not just fundamental analysis to be more confident. Capital determined the stock market.
Regarding the improvement of the stock market situation, the economist said: “The stock market should move towards the free market, which requires long-term and detailed planning, which is made possible by experienced cadres.” The first step is to calm the stock market because traders need to be consistent in planning their trades, which is created by eliminating sudden decisions so that a one-year plan is written and made available to everyone to Shareholders and traders invest confidently in the market and the stock market.
*** Stock policy
He continued: “We are witnessing these conditions in the capital market as well, so that the conditions prevailing in the Tehran Stock Exchange cannot be compared with any other stock market in the world.” Of course, some of these challenges in various areas of the Iranian economy are due to some wrong decisions made by some officials. If these challenges and sanctions were managed and controlled at the right time, the work would not be so difficult and we could control the situation with more precise management.
“I think if some of these policies had been a little more precise and expert, the stock market would have had far fewer problems today,” the economist told Samat.
*** Recession in the stock market
Mehdi Mehdiani, an expert on economic issues regarding the country’s high inflation, said: “Due to the current inflation, the stock market situation is in a significant recession compared to previous months. Some shareholders have suffered a lot of losses, one of the reasons being lack of expertise.” Increasing liquidity among the people is another factor. Of course, it is noteworthy that some people made good profits in the good days of the stock market and then withdrew their money from the stock market.
In the end, considering the current situation of the stock market, he said: Considering the current situation of the stock market and the high inflation that society suffers from, one cannot expect much growth from the stock market, and in this regard, one cannot expect a miracle. It will not happen, and neither can the hope of a return on shareholder return capital.
*** Conclusion
Some experts of Tehran Stock Exchange, following the devaluation of the dollar in the market, the largest reduction in stock rates for export-oriented companies and commodities.
On the other hand, according to recent statements by the Governor of the Central Bank, it is expected that after the release of blocked currencies, the dollar will decline further, which will have a direct impact on the Iranian stock market and hopes to improve the stock market. And stocks are far from expected.
Given that the stock market price in the current situation due to the excessive rise of the dollar price has not been much affected and somehow this variable can not change the downward trend of the stock market, it is predicted that if the dollar price decreases significantly, stock prices Also decrease in parallel because of the pricing equations Stock exchanges, gold, and currencies are highly interdependent and market leadership is based on the dollar price. This is because macro-policies in Iran are based on exchange rates.
If Trump wins the election, we will see higher rates in the dollar, but this price increase will not benefit the capital market because political risks dominate the stock market and challenge purchasing power.
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