In this memo, we try to evaluate the latest situation of the Iranian steel market based on various parameters of steel production and exports and explain the general picture of the market. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Review of Iranian steel production statistics
Yesterday, the Iranian Steel Producers Association published the latest report on the production performance of Iranian steelmakers, which estimated that in the first six months of the year 99, the combined figure of Iranian steel production was 14 million and 392 thousand tons.
One of the production of steel products shows that the share of billets and blooms was 8 million 636 thousand tons and the share of slabs was 5 million 756 thousand tons. The largest volume of production changes that had an upward trend was related to rebar, which is 536 thousand Last year, the figure reached six hundred and twenty-six thousand tons in the first six months of this year, in which we have witnessed a total decline of about 17% of production.
*** The last student of Iran’s steel chain
Despite the acceptable growth in the domestic rebar sector, angles and studs have faced a decrease of 4% in production and their production figure has reached three hundred and ninety-three thousand tons in the first six months of this year. The birth market of coated steel sheet has also undergone a downward trend in production this year. Iran’s steel production statistics in this chain has decreased by six percent compared to last year and reached five hundred thousand tons, which should not be far from the eyes of Iranian steel analysts. Stay.
*** Monitoring the sheet market in Iran Steel Exchange
The production of hot rolled sheets in the first six months of this year compared to the same period last year, increased by 4% and reached 4 million 572 thousand tons. Cold sheet production increased by 5% to 1,368,000 tons and coated sheet production decreased by 6% to 766,000 tons. The total production of steel flat sections has increased by 3% to 5 million and 439 thousand tons.
*** Iran Iron Ore Exchange Observation
The price of Iranian iron ore for export purposes experienced a two-dollar increase yesterday. Due to the fact that most of Iran’s iron ore products are destined for China, and in this country, with the decline in emotional prices for iron ore and the growth of Chinese demand for imported iron dogs, we saw this growth, which is expected to rise by the end of this week. Export prices continue.
According to the reports of Iran’s steel export bases, the price of 61% pure magnetite iron ore recorded the same growth and was traded at $ 77.6 per ton FOB. The 61% pure hematite iron ore export also had the same growth rate (2 Percent) and sold at a price of $ 75.5 per tonne full crush.
*** Monitoring the domestic and foreign scrap market
Iran’s iron scrap market is highly dependent on the Turkish scrap market. As the dollar rises, producers prefer to sell scrap in Turkish lira and dollars, and it is not economical to use it for rial consumption. In recent days, with the boom of the Turkish scrap market and the increase in the demand of this country, acceptable movements in the Iranian scrap market have been observed. The price is expected to be between $ 285 and $ 287 within the next one to two weeks. An increase in purchases is estimated for the coming days.
*** Evaluation of billet price in Iran Steel Exchange
Billet was one of the periods whose price had experienced many ups and downs in the past weeks, and in fact, the steel chain and suppliers were facing a serious challenge. On Saturday of this week, the average ticket price was 119375 Rials and on Wednesday it reached 119313 Rials. While the base supply price on the stock exchange had increased compared to the previous week, but the market these days we are witnessing stability in the billet prices on the domestic steel exchange.
The stability of the billet price is very important for the Iranian Steel Exchange, because it can balance the trading process of the Steel Exchange in a short period of time. Because billet is used as a raw material in the production of other steel products and can improve production costs in the current situation for the domestic steel producer.
*** Bad Luck Week Rolling Basin
A decrease of $ 10 / tonne in CIS export ribbed rebar and an increase of $ 2.5 / tonne in Iranian export ingots are among the indicators observed for the past week and have challenged the rolling field in exports. Considering that currently the criterion for determining the base rate in Iranian stock exchanges is the rate of export ingots and the rate of export ribbed rebar in the CIS region; The $ 5 to $ 15 drop in the CIS export ribbed rebar index and the $ 2 to $ 3 increase in Iran’s export ingots in the coming week can be predicted as a kind of bad luck for the rolling field in the coming week.
The base supply rate of ribbed rebar this week, if priced like last week, the prices in this area will decrease by about 200 tomans to 250 tomans per kilo. Therefore, it is expected to adjust the rate of long sections this week. Be
*** Evaluate the general outline of the steel market
Regarding the Iranian steel market, it seems these days, this market has been strongly affected by the price of the Senate dollar, and the current rise in the price of the Senate dollar has caused inflammation in the Iranian steel exchange. The point that is strongly recommended to buyers and activists of the steel exchange is to refrain from emotional behaviors and to stop buying as an investment and speculation until the prices of all steel products become real.
*** Current conditions of the Iranian steel market
In the current situation, buyers and sellers of Iranian steel are of the opinion that the Sanai dollar exchange rate is at its saturation threshold, and in fact, the growth of these prices will cause irreparable damage to the country’s economy. On the other hand, the news indicates that the policy makers of the Steel Exchange Iran is preparing a procedure that, if approved and finalized and implemented on the Commodity Exchange, will limit and make conditions more difficult for steelmakers who are riding the wave of rising Sanai dollar prices, and if this method If the letter is properly implemented in the market, we will see the adjustment of prices and the reduction of the emotional atmosphere of the market.
*** final conclusion
The overall assessment of the steel market in the current situation, and at least for the next two to three weeks, is extremely vague and unpredictable; But after the US presidential election, and the outcome; In any case, and with any result we have encountered, the result of the inflammation of the foreign exchange market will subside and, consequently, all the markets connected to this steel market will be very likely.
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