Rising world oil prices have become a major issue in financial markets in recent weeks
The global oil market was one of the markets that entered a new arena in the new year with the farewell of Trump to the US presidency, and analysts have considered different perspectives for this market. For an overview of the oil outlook this year, we recommend that you stay with Artan Press until the end.
*** Rising world oil prices in recent weeks
Rising world oil prices have become a major issue in financial markets in recent weeks. A growth that coincides with various events such as the discovery of the Corona vaccine, the start of vaccinations, the election of Biden as President of the United States, optimism about Iran’s return to the world oil market, Libyan developments, OPEC cartel agreements and cooperation, Russia and Saudi Arabia, China’s economic growth. New bans on US oil fields, various scenarios on shale oil, etc. will have a positive or negative effect.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast in its latest report that the world average price of crude oil will reach more than $ 50 a barrel in 2021. According to Platts, the International Monetary Fund said: The average price of a barrel of oil It will reach more than $ 50 in 2021, which is an increase of more than 21% compared to the price level in 2020.
*** The possibility of world oil prices jumps in the global oil market
The natural cycle of the oil market may lead to a price jump in the current decade. Investment has fallen sharply; Because the fall in world oil prices last year did not leave much money for large companies in the field. As investment decreases, so does production. So experts say supply shortages could push oil prices higher in the coming years.
There is a possibility that oil demand will continue to decline forever; And that the price of black gold will jump by a decade. Analysts in the field believe that the low level of investment of companies, especially in the exploration of new resources, can upset the market balance in the coming years and cause a sharp rise in prices.
The US oil industry is feeling more threatened than ever with the arrival of Joe Biden and his adherence to the climate commitments he made in his campaign, and he misses Donald Trump.
Biden announced the beginning of a serious climate revolution in his country by issuing an executive order to stop the lease of federal lands for oil and gas extraction. The New York Times examines Biden’s executive order and its implications, saying that Biden’s executive order has a particular focus on job creation in the United States and, despite strong opposition, with widespread support from climate activists, the far-left and progressive Democratic Party and even the House. US trade is facing
*** The amount of oil sales in the 1400 budget bill
The 1400 budget bill was closed in two ceilings and two terms due to the change in the amount of oil sales; One ceiling in the first 6 months and one ceiling in the second 6 months of next year.
In its proposed bill, the government had projected daily sales of 2.3 million barrels of oil, but the Joint Commission reduced that number to 1.5 million barrels per day, making it feasible under sanctions. Therefore, the first ceiling of government revenues is based on the daily sales of 1.5 million barrels of oil, and the second ceiling is based on the possibility of selling excess of this figure.
The public resources of the government in this bill increased from 841 thousand billion tomans predicted by the government to 1158 thousand billion tomans. 317 thousand billion tomans, the difference is 178 thousand billion tomans were clarified; For example, 90,000 billion tomans in the field of transfer of shares and clause and note 2 were mentioned in the budget book, but it was not mentioned in the rows and its resources were considered zero. Also, 30,000 billion tomans were considered for settlement bonds, to which 5,000 billion tomans were added; Meanwhile, the amount of one rial was written in the lines of the budget bill.
*** Dependence on oil in the budget of 1400
۱۳۹ thousand billion tomans of new resources in the field of taxes, securities and documents created, for example; 17 thousand billion Tomans due to the entrance fee of cars from free zones and also the real amount of VAT of 88 thousand and 300 billion Tomans, which the government had considered 66 thousand billion Tomans.
In the budget of 1400, dependence on oil has increased from 394 thousand billion tomans to less than 260 thousand billion tomans. It is worth mentioning that due to the major changes made by the Parliamentary Integration Commission, the finalization of these changes is subject to the final approval of the Guardian Council.
In recent years, falling world oil prices on world markets have had a major negative impact on unproductive and oil-oriented economies in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Gulf, and with the spread of the corona and the disagreement of OPEC countries, these countries have faced large budget deficits. Research has predicted what oil prices these countries will need to make up for their budget deficits.
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