Recent days have seen a relative easing of tensions between China and Australia over mineral transit. The news that in the analysis of commodity prices had provided the ground for prices to be fed. Yesterday, forecasts of rising iron ore prices were challenged. So that we saw a 15% drop in the price of iron ore in world transactions. We will evaluate this issue further. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Commodities affected by world iron ore price
Global commodity markets have been heavily affected by rising iron ore prices in recent days. Numerous factors went hand in hand to push iron ore prices to historic highs, sometimes setting new records. An important point in this regard; Iron ore prices, as the main raw material of steel in the Chinese market; During the Eid al-Fitr holiday; Affected by the economic challenge between Australia and China and some control measures by the Chinese government; The fall was from $ 230 to near $ 200, which raised doubts about trading and eventually forced the entire market to retreat. But how much the price of iron ore will retreat and how long the downward trend in iron ore prices will continue is currently unclear.
*** Changing the iron ore price game by reducing tensions between China and Australia
According to Artan Press and quoting Dr. Tehrani’s telegram channel, the news of the iron ore field did not follow the same trend due to the reduction of tensions between China and Australia. So that in the CIS prices section, despite the positive news from the Chinese and Australian parties, we witnessed unbridled prices. As the region’s Bloom ingots rose $ 35 to $ 720, the Black Sea hot-rolled sheet rose $ 1030 by the same amount; Turkish rebar exports also rose by $ 40 to $ 760 per tonne. 62% of imported iron ore from China’s southern ports rose by more than $ 4 to $ 232 to more than $ 233 / tonne on Saturday, the global trading weekend, a record high. May be.
*** Steel Price evaluation of world iron ore price
Price reports in the analytical journal Steel Price show that prices are not ready to go back, at least in the CIS. While in Latin American and European markets we have seen a 10% drop in prices. Iron ore prices are expected to become slightly more reasonable as measures to normalize trade between China and Australia are finalized. This price increase due to the return of a large part of the steel industry to the production cycle and its coincidence with the disputes between China and Australia caused the price of iron ore to record a new historical record in recent days.
*** Predict the continuation of the decline in world iron ore prices
The return of calm to the global iron ore market and the re-emergence of the question of whether the uptrend of the supercycle is nearing its end? Analyzes show that some had prioritized the $ 800 target for CIS ingots; Now, with the news of the economic tension between China and Australia in the markets; We had to wait for the feedback of the export markets after the first days of the week and especially after the Sunday holidays of the world markets.
*** Significant but relative decline in iron ore price index
The latest trading data for iron ore shows a fall of 3.78% (-8.1 USD) at the end of Saturday trading day and reached $ 206.4 / ton cfr. The latest prices for imported iron ore and ports released by the SMM Institute show that the expectation of lower iron ore prices has strengthened as China-Australia relations improve, and in the coming days we may see prices fall below $ 200 / ton CFR.
It seems that this strategic commodity or the influential raw material of the world iron market; Influenced by China’s control policies yesterday and today, and the easing of economic tensions between China and Australia, SELL has taken a heavy toll, as evidenced by yesterday’s big red candle and the volume of trades. It seems that the next floor of the valid technical support of this product will be around $ 190 and then the price channel of $ 180-170 if the losses continue.
*** The role of China’s domestic factors in iron ore pricing
In recent days, developments in the Chinese steel market have also moved in the direction that made possible the relative decline in iron ore prices. According to Artan Press and quoted by the Financial Times, after the government warned Chinese steelmakers, especially in Shanghai and Tangshan, not to increase steel prices, iron ore transactions returned below $ 210 per ton and purchases were made very cautiously and only in case of urgency.
Production needs. Now an important question arises here. Can a sharp drop in iron ore be considered a prelude to stopping the upward trend in steel and raw materials or even reversing the above trend and entering the downward channels? Definitely next week, and especially from Monday, the market will draw this path more clearly.
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