The total stock index yesterday, after a consecutive week of decline, finally became positive with 9756 units. This issue, which arose due to Hemmati’s candidacy in the presidential election, is unlikely to lead to a positive and sustainable trend. As it is known, the index is currently supported in the range of 1,100,000 units yesterday. Evaluation of the value chart of stock exchange and OTC transactions affecting the index along with its moving average of the last 14 days, from the beginning of October 1398 is the computational basis of the information in this analysis. Please stay with Artan Press until the end.
*** Evaluate the role of micro trading in the movement of the total stock index
The value of small transactions of stock exchanges and OTC at the end of the fourth trading day of June 1400 was about 2.275 billion tomans, which is about 49 billion tomans more than the average of the last 14 days of this index (2.226 billion tomans). With the reopening of the steel, auto and stock market index symbols, the market was able to end its downward cycle on the day when demand strengthened. Market watchers, however, believe that tomorrow’s market may be different from today, given Wednesday’s initial public offering and the pressure of possible natural supply.
*** Start of greening of the whole total stock index in the middle of the week
The overall capital market index started the first minutes of trading in green yesterday. This index increased by 2,720 units in the first 15 minutes of trading and reached 1,098,418 units. The total homogeneous index fell 111 points in the same minutes and stood at 383,108 points. The base metals index also increased by 3,117 units and reached 852,543 units. Accordingly, with the end of trading on Tuesday, this stock index experienced a growth of 0.9 percent thanks to the increase in demand among adults and the 1.1 million unit channel that yesterday Had lost, regained.
*** Total equilibrium index in negative direction
But the situation on the side of the overall index is not considered positive. The overall homogeneous index, however, recorded its tenth consecutive negative decline of 0.1 percent, although the intensity of supply in smaller symbols was reduced. In the OTC market as a total stock index, we saw a growing trend for this indicator, so that the total index of this market eventually remained green with a growth of 0.4 percent. Traders in this market made 447 thousand trades worth 42 thousand 983 billion rials.
*** The weight of the influence of symbols on total stock index
But which markets had the most impact on the positive ounce of the market on Tuesday? Stock market statistics show that the Persian Gulf Petrochemical, National Iranian Copper Industries, Isfahan Oil Refinery, Social Security Investment and Bandar Abbas Oil Refinery have the most positive effect compared to other symbols and Pasargad Bank has the most negative effect compared to other symbols. Put on the stock exchange. Of the 321 symbols traded, the closing price of 105 shares (33%) was positive and 160 shares (50%) were traded at negative levels. In this market, 31 symbols (10%) formed a purchase queue worth 52 billion tomans. But in contrast, we witnessed the formation of sales queues in 167 stock exchange symbols (52%) worth 2276 billion tomans.
*** The movement of the energy exchange under the pretext of total stock index
The OTC market also followed a small green path. Unfortunately, the prevailing political climate in the stock market does not allow analysts to evaluate the direction of the overall index with awe. Therefore, many analysts believe that this trend in the capital market can not be ignored. On the OTC market of Iran, on the day when Ifex recorded a growth of 0.4%, 125 symbols were traded, among which the closing price of 23 shares (18.4%) was positive and 96 shares (77%) were negative. In this market, 8 symbols (6.4%) formed a buying queue worth 127 billion Tomans, but 86 symbols (69%) also faced a selling queue worth 1453 billion Tomans. The energy market has shown that it can be very effective in the days when the overall stock market index is strong enough to grow.
*** Deepening stagnation in basic market transactions
The base market, however, did not achieve a uniform trend throughout the market. The base market also hosted 93 stocks today. Among them, 15 shares (16%) remained positive and in contrast, we witnessed the trading of 62 shares (67%) in the negative range. In this market, 10 symbols (11%) formed a purchase queue worth 31 billion Tomans and the sales queue in this market was allocated to 68 symbols (73%) with a value of 1104 billion Tomans. The positive atmosphere of the market was not enough to accompany the base market with a growing movement. Trading in this area can be considered as an important risk for the stock market index.
*** Evaluation of the commodity exchange in accordance with the latest signals
But let’s examine the convergence of the Tehran Stock Exchange with the Commodity Exchange on yesterday’s trading day. It remains to be seen how the movement of the stock market index could change the demand for bullion. The bullion traded on the Commodity Exchange yesterday; Somewhat high and traded at a rapid rate and is unlikely to have fluctuated. That is, they bought to sell higher, or they bought for fear of losing capital, or now, for whatever reason, there is the smell of fluctuations from the commodity exchange. Finally, about 90,000 tons of ingots have been traded. We are witnessing a growth in demand in the roof markets, which may be observed only in the world economic system in Iran. Therefore, it is predicted that in the near future, we will see a drop in prices in the commodity exchange and in the ingot sector.
*** Possibility of adjusting rates in the commodity exchange affected by global rates
Some analysts believe that as the export rate of bloom ingots in world markets continues to decline, there is a possibility of adjustment, stopping or even a return of the domestic rate in the next few weeks.
These are the peaks or the last breaths of this uptrend in the markets. Unfortunately, in this area, the experience of traders and investors in the steel sector shows that there are obligations on the part of the market maker, which can not be optimistically assessed in the coming days. Is. Experience has shown that whenever there is talk of price reductions and the need arises; They have always found a logic or some way to escape from this situation. Now, from changing the basis of the dollar exchange rate, or changing the basis and criteria of the world steel rate, or changing the calculation formula, or even changing the exchange rate. In short, there is always an escape route for the market maker in a situation where prices are naturally falling.
*** The key role of the dollar in maintaining the overall total stock index
It is hoped that this time global steel prices will fall during the global supersycle downturn. The dollar rate should at least remain stable and not go up, and we should see that the exchange rate also decreases in the truth of behavior. Continuation of this trend can strengthen the optimism about the steel market and the commodity exchange. This issue will definitely affect the overall stock index in the middle of June. Of course, the issue of elections and the change of government cabinet is not a small issue that will happen in two to three months at the most. It remains to be seen what policy the new president will choose with the new cabinet to lead the domestic market.
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