It seems that by the end of the year, we will have an increasing trend in the energy sector, especially in world oil prices. Some oil analysts talk about $ 100 a barrel. This trend will help improve the economic situation of the oil-rich countries. In the following, we will evaluate the latest global oil price stimuli. Please be with Artan Press.
*** World oil price forecast by the end of 2021
Leading oil market experts predict that oil prices may rise to $ 100 a barrel this year, and agree that OPEC Plus should set a price ceiling. Although Goldman Sachs himself has predicted that oil prices will rise to $ 80 a barrel, Curry, director of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, did not rule out the possibility of prices rising to $ 100 by the end of 2021. He added: “In the short term, the markets have a 10% chance that oil will rise to more than $ 100 per barrel by the end of 2021.”
*** OPEC looks at world oil prices
Despite the ambiguities surrounding the corona, OPEC still expects global oil demand to improve sharply in 2021 and will need more oil from the group. Barrels per day evaluated. This means that OPEC still has room to further increase production in the second half of this year. The Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has announced that at least $ 1 trillion in losses will be lost to 2020 members due to the Corona outbreak crisis.
*** OPEC Secretary General warns of impending oil crisis
OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said at the 4th International Petroleum Industry Summit in Nigeria that OPEC members suffered more than $ 1 trillion in the crisis of sharp oil price drops in 2015 and 2016, according to Artan Press. There were losses. This loss is expected to be greater in the crisis of the coronavirus outbreak in 2020. Mohammad Barkindo said that despite climate change and efforts to use clean energy, the world economy still needs oil. Referring to the success of producers in supporting the market, the OPEC Secretary General said that OPEC and its allies expect oil reserves to decrease further in the coming months.
*** OPEC’s view of the Iranian oil market
Iran’s oil production in June 1400 reached 2 million 455 thousand barrels per day, which is an increase of 42 thousand barrels per day compared to the previous month. With this amount of production, Iran is ranked fourth in OPEC member countries. Iran’s current oil production is 2.455 million barrels per day. OPEC’s six-month report on the oil market shows that Saudi Arabia is the largest producer of oil in the group, followed by Iran and Venezuela. Iran has been announcing for weeks that it is preparing to increase oil production following the continuation of Vienna talks on a return to the UN Security Council and the lifting of US sanctions. The average price of a barrel of Iranian heavy oil also increased by $ 3 and 72 cents compared to the previous month and reached $ 77.72.
*** Evaluate the latest world oil prices movements
Crude oil prices rose again on Tuesday and stood near their multi-year peak. The market has a better outlook for demand growth in the second half of 2021, and this has been a stimulus for investors. Brent crude was up 52 cents at $ 38.73 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was up 49 cents at $ 37.71 a barrel. With the expansion of Covid 19 vaccination in the world’s economies, the expectation of increased demand during the second half of this year has strengthened. Another stimulus is the OPEC cartel’s attempt to keep supply at a reasonable level to prevent oversupply. Crude oil prices are forecast to be between $ 70 and $ 80 / barrel this year.
*** Factors affecting world oil prices
Investors are focused on two important issues. First, the Fed’s decisions at the next meeting on the future of monetary policy are the world’s largest economy. Rising inflation in the US economy has worried policymakers, and the possibility of rising interest rates has been placed in investors’ calculations. Another issue is the talks between Iran and the five world powers to revive Borjam to determine when Iranian oil can return to world markets. If there is a knot in the Vienna talks, the increase in oil supply will be disrupted.
*** Medium term outlook for the global oil market
Global economic growth is expected to improve and hence oil demand will accelerate. In the remaining 6 months of 2021, the need for transportation fuels is projected to increase as vaccination programs progress well and the world returns to normal. OPEC and its partners have recovered almost 40% of the products lost due to the decline due to the coronavirus epidemic. The group also seeks to produce more than that. But studies show that as production increases, so will demand. For at least the second six months of 2021, this forecast will come true.
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