In this memo, we will evaluate Reuters’ view of Iran’s political and economic events. In this regard, perspectives are presented that we will examine in the following. The economic situation of the country is strongly tied to the possible scenarios of Borjam. We will further interpret and analyze this issue. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Problem over Iran’s nuclear deal
According to a trading firm for the global financial industry, Iran’s economic recovery is likely to be modest if the 2015 nuclear deal with the six world powers is revived without expanding the scope of the treaty. The International Monetary Fund (IIF) said in a report that the victory of Ibrahim Ra’isi in this month’s presidential election will bring nuclear negotiations challenges. But the United States may have difficulty expanding the scope of the agreement. To address the issue of inflation, it is important to address the issue of the multi-currency regime in Iran, and this will not only help curb inflation but also improve macroeconomic stability in general. We expect the Iranian economy to record positive growth in the new year and next year
*** Nuclear incentives for Iran fade
The likely outcome of the Barjam talks will eventually be a return to the 2015 agreement, which will keep many sanctions in place. Such a limited agreement would prevent significant investment by Western companies, and would make a rapid increase in economic growth in Iran unlikely. Iran and the United States have been in indirect talks since April to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, the agreement of then-President Donald Trump in 2018, with the re-imposition of sanctions.
*** Biden seeks to limit Iran’s nuclear activities
US President Joe Biden is working to revive and eventually expand the nuclear deal to further restrict Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, as well as to limit its regional activities. Iran has rejected negotiations for a stronger and broader agreement. Under pressure from US sanctions and the worst impact of COVID-19 in the Middle East, Iran’s economy remains fragile, with high unemployment and more than 50 percent inflation unlikely to change.
*** IIF analysis of Iran’s economic
If the new comprehensive nuclear deal goes beyond 2015, Iran will see real GDP growth of 4.3% this year and then 5.9% and 5.8% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. IIF is estimated. Under this scenario, official reserves could more than double by $ 70 billion by the end of 2023 by May this year, foreign direct investment will help create jobs, and Iran will achieve potential revenue growth by 2023.
*** Reuters’ optimistic view of the nuclear deal scenario
Reuters says that if there is only a return to the terms of the 2015 agreement, Iran’s real GDP could grow by 3.5% this year and 4.1% and 3.8% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. “Moderate recovery may not reduce unemployment, which is currently around 20%. If Tehran and the six powers fail to reach an agreement, unemployment in Iran will remain in double digits and economic growth of 1.8% this year,” the report said. “With the revival of the UN Security Council and the lifting of US sanctions against Iran, the country’s foreign exchange reserves will double by 2023 and the Iranian economy will grow moderately,” the report said.
“If sanctions are lifted, Iran’s foreign exchange reserves will be It will reach $ 140 billion, and if Borjam is revived, the country’s economic growth will be 3.5 percent this year and about 4 percent each for 2022 and 2023. The main reason for Iran’s economic growth with the lifting of sanctions is a significant increase in oil exports. It will return that does not necessarily mean the prosperity of other sectors, especially the service sector, which employs half of Iran’s employees.
*** Margins of the UN Security Council
The United States plans to suspend small amounts of sanctions and keep the rest for the missile program, which Russia opposes. Britain has asked a president to take Iran in a different direction. The British representative to the Security Council has said that the president-elect of Iran could address concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, end destabilization and human rights abuses, and release British citizens to take Iran in a different direction. Overall, the UN Security Council has ended its talks on Iran in such a way that the Vienna talks cannot continue indefinitely, and we are fast approaching the deadline for a decision. Iran’s nuclear steps reduce Borjam’s interests. We are concerned about Iran’s action in restricting the International Atomic Energy Agency’s oversight activities.
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