Global oil markets have seen significant growth in all markets in recent days. Due to the growth of demand and the existence of political factors in the oil market and the behavior of the American heart regarding the price of oil, we are witnessing the growth of prices in this market. This trend is likely to continue at a slow pace until the end of 2021. Crude oil markets were volatile during trading on Friday. The oil market has a huge impact on US unemployment statistics. In the following, we will review the latest news in this field. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Rising global oil prices and starting from the US market
We will start the inflammation and the growth of prices from the American market. The price of oil in the current markets is strongly dependent on the cost of crude oil in the producing countries. The West Texas crude market has shown that it is quite volatile and flexible. Oil trading at $ 75 a barrel in recent days shows a 15 percent increase in US oil prices in less than a week. Psychological issues in the market have caused oil prices to line up for further growth. Continuing this trend and rising oil prices could improve US unemployment rates. That is why Biden will welcome the rise in oil prices in the current context. In general, the price of oil may push pullbacks to lower rates, but the short-term and medium-term outlook for oil will be positive and growing.
*** Demand growth; The main factor in the rise in world oil prices
The oil market will start to grow in the coming days, and due to the stabilization of demand and sometimes the increasing demand for purchasing in the whole market, it will continue its upward path. China and the United States are trying to capture as much of the oil market as possible because of their historical rivalry. The moving average price of oil for the 50-day horizon is expected to reach $ 75, which is a real look at this. In more optimistic forecasts for producers, oil prices may reach $ 85 a barrel in the next 50 days. Countries whose economies have been severely damaged by the corona are trying to make the most of this opportunity in the global oil industry.
*** Disagreement in OPEC and the onset of inflammation in the oil market
Oil prices rose sharply to $ 76 a barrel on Monday, following reports from the OPEC Plus summit on oil production policy and its postponement. This is the highest price in the market in the last three years. Last week, major oil producers failed to reach a general consensus after blocking an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia to increase production by 2 million barrels per day in the second half of the year.
They announced that the extension was subject to a revision of their base products. In the United States, meanwhile, energy companies increased oil and gas rigs for three consecutive weeks. Last week, US oil experienced a price increase of 1.5%, the sixth consecutive week. Meanwhile, the global benchmark fell 1 percent last week, the first weekly drop this week, amid growing concerns about the rapid spread of the coronavirus in the heart of Asia and in some European countries, demand is growing to address the risk.
*** Uncertainties in the global oil market
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) standard for US crude oil is the most widely traded commodity index in the world. The price of crude oil shown in economic transactions is based on over-the-counter (OTC) financial instruments and the price difference contract (CFD) in analysts’ reports. Accordingly, market prices will be just a reference for predicting the state of the global oil market, rather than as a basis for trading decisions. In this analysis, global trade does not endorse any data and waives any commitment to do so.
*** The growth of Brent oil world prices follows the OPEC meeting
The oil market also has a glimpse of Brent oil trading. Almost 30% of the world oil market is occupied by this field. Therefore, evaluating the movements of this section also helps to better understand the situation. Brent crude futures for the fourth day in a row boosted global oil prices to $ 77 a barrel. This figure is the highest since October 2018. The decision-making crisis in the OPEC sector has pushed up prices in the Brent oil sector.
Yesterday, the OPEC Plus meeting to reach a comprehensive agreement on increasing production for this year and in 2022, after two failures to reach an agreement last week Monday was postponed again and no new date has been set. The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Russia played a key role in the failure of the summit. They believe that any change in OPEC oil policy is subject to a revision of basic production. Investors worry that a disagreement could mean the main producers continue with current production levels, pushing up oil prices and hurting the economic recovery of consuming countries.
*** Analysts look to the future of global oil prices
The Times interviewed Vandana Hari, an expert in the field of energy, in which she said that after the coronation situation in the United States normalized, the country is strongly emphasizing a return to economic growth. The country must regulate its unemployment situation and watch China’s movements in the world market. Due to China’s surplus, rising oil prices could be a blow to the US economy, which the United States has taken
Has adopted. Since China buys cheap oil from Iran, the United States will bring it to Iran to reduce oil production. This could also clarify the task of Iran’s nuclear talks. The rise in oil prices by the end of the year has been accepted by many analysts. This is very likely given the games on the market. At least we can say that the power of oil producing countries is greater at this time.
*** Triple disruptors of the OPEC agreement
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Russia have questioned the direction of the OPEC agreement in an unwritten agreement. These countries are looking for more sales and more oil supply in the market. The United States agrees at this point because it makes some of its purchases from the Middle East oil market. Continuation of the 18th meeting of oil and energy ministers of member and non-member producers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) called the OPEC Plus Coalition, which ended without a result on Saturday morning (July 4) and was scheduled to continue yesterday (Monday, July 5) due to ineffective Consultations were canceled, and OPEC Secretary-General Mohamed Barkenido apologized, saying the date for the next meeting would be announced later. This led countries that wanted to buy oil from the complex to change their minds and use Brent oil to feed their factories.
*** Goldman Sachs looks to the future of the global oil market
It is not bad to have a look at the oil price forecast from Goldman Sachs. In the third quarter of 2021, Goldman Sachs put Brent prices above $ 80 on average, which is a “much higher” jump in demand with a potential jump. Meanwhile, JP Morgan expects crude oil prices to reach “$ 80” in the final three months of the year. Analysts at US banks have forecast an even higher trend. They argue that Brent prices could be as high as $ 100 next summer. This will be the first time since 2014 that oil has experienced triple digits per barrel.
*** Environmental challenges behind the high energy demand
But perhaps a good side is the story of high demand in the oil market and profit from this market for the country. But the important issue that is often forgotten is the issue of ecology and consumption of societies and crossing the red line of consumerism. Now that environmental crises are sweeping the globe, the finger of blame for this crisis is being aimed at the fossil fuel industry, and in the United States alone, 12 lawsuits are on trial. They are charged with “suppressing warnings about the impact of fossil fuels on environmental crises.” The Guardian reports that it is time for communities to demand compensation from oil and gas companies to reduce the damage caused by the use of fossil fuels. After a century of endless use of economic and political power, these companies are now the biggest existential threat in our lifetime.
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