The dollar exchange rate had started to decline in the last months of Rouhani’s presidency with the promise of reaching 15,000 tomans. But for some reason, such as the lack of sufficient support to support the currency injected into the market and the lack of consensus between the government’s economic team and the former head of the central bank, this downward trend was halted. We have repeatedly stated in reports that the real exchange rate of the dollar is much lower than the numbers that are reflected in the market. The trend of the dollar price in recent days was close to touching the 27,000 Toman border with a significant acceleration, but it retreated a bit. It remains to be seen what role the new government, which is chanting inflation and inflation, will play in this turbulent dollar market. Stay tuned to Artan Press.
*** Dollar price trend on foreign exchange market holidays
The foreign exchange market is officially closed until the end of the week. But we see that in parallel and promissory note markets, the dollar is rising. The dollar price trend in Iran is a great tragedy. Many economic indicators are directly or indirectly related to the dollar. In a situation where many cancer drugs in Iran are calculated at a free exchange rate, we are witnessing the neglect of the concerns of this segment of society.
We have repeatedly stated that governments can easily adjust the exchange rate. The situation is no longer similar to the years when Iran’s oil sales were one tenth of today. Iran has no problem in terms of foreign exchange supply. But the reason for this unbridled growth of the dollar can only be attributed to the mismanagement and misbehavior of regulators.
*** Assessing the reasons for the rising price of the dollar in the open market
Currently, the excuse that exists in the dollar market and keeps the dollar price up is the growth of gold prices in the world market. This issue has no scientific and logical aspect at all. On the other hand, some speculators in this market have used the situation in Afghanistan as an excuse. They claim that the flow of foreign currency into Iran has been disrupted.
It should be noted that the Herat dollar has not entered the Iranian market for months, and communication channels and currency exchanges take place outside Afghanistan. Today, the official currency market is closed, but in the open market, the price of the dollar has risen. The price of the dollar in the open market transactions on Monday morning increased by 240 tomans compared to the previous day and was exchanged at 26,900 tomans. The price of Euro was bought and sold for 31 thousand 385 Tomans.
*** Change in foreign exchange policy behavior from May
The image below shows exchange rate fluctuations from the beginning of this year until today. The issue that is very clear is the change in the monetary and exchange rate policy of the market maker in gold trading. Until May, the dollar price trend was down.
This route was planned to reach 15 thousand tomans at the end of Rouhani’s government. In this direction, objections were made by executive institutions such as the Central Bank, and with the marginalization of the final negotiations, the upward trend of the exchange rate began, and to date, it has moved almost uninterruptedly on the path of growth. Markets do not have the elasticity of the dollar. Many of the essential goods of the people experience price growth in a situation that is beyond the purchasing power of the people. It seems that the new government should think of an immediate solution to this situation.
*** Evaluate the price of the dollar in bank exchanges
Yesterday, the selling price of the dollar in bank exchange offices was set at 25,921 tomans and the purchase price was set at 25,408 tomans. The selling price of Euro is 30,508 Tomans and the purchase price is 29,904 Tomans. The dollar was sold in the open market with an increase of 570 tomans, 26 thousand and 930 tomans, and the euro was offered with a growth of 600 tomans, with a price of 31 thousand and 650 tomans. The selling rate of the dollar on the national exchange board was announced as 25,972 tomans. If this trend continues in the coming holidays, it is likely that the dollar will easily break the 27,000 Toman mark. A 7% day-to-day rise in the dollar, which is growing steadily, could pose a major risk to the market.
*** The custom of rising dollar prices on holidays
Whenever the foreign exchange market closed, we saw the dollar rise. This is unavoidable because market purchases are provided through informal channels and often for immediate needs. But the entry of the dollar price trend into the channel of 27 thousand tomans can be an alarm for commodity markets. This issue has also been strengthened under the pretext of the one-month relative growth of the gold market. For example, yesterday, the Emami coin increased by 17,000 Tomans, reaching 11 million and 817 thousand Tomans. Each gram of 18-carat gold was sold at a price of one million and 138 thousand tomans. An ounce of gold traded at $ 1,779.81 in global markets. Domestic gold and dollar rates support each other with a significant correlation.
*** The effect of dirham remittance rates on currency price growth
The dollar price trend can also be examined from the perspective of remittance transactions. In recent days, we have witnessed the issue of dirham remittances at a higher rate for Iranians. This shifted its overhead costs to the open market. If the exchange rate of the domestic dollar is controlled, the purchase and sale of remittances at the Iranian border will definitely decrease with the price.
In today’s market, the price of UAE dirham remittances increased by 50 Tomans to 6 thousand 228 Tomans. Chinese Yuan remittances increased by 28 Tomans to 3 thousand 531 Tomans. Turkish Lira remittances increased by 21 Tomans to 2,679 Tomans. Tomans was offered. The market in the current situation needs a logical control and constant monitoring. There is no need for currency in society. Perhaps by unifying the exchange rate in the market We need to solve more of the currency problems of the society.
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