It seems that the way has been paved for the rise of Iranian export ingots in world markets. This can be seen from the analytical reports of today’s Metal Bulletin report. This theory has pointed to this point in its latest estimate of the export markets of ingots and slabs of Iran and several other countries. A noteworthy point is the $ 20 to $ 30 gap between Iran’s export ingot rate and the CIS. It seems that Iran intends to pave the way for its steel price growth with the growth of world iron ore prices in the coming months. In the following, we will examine various analyzes on this issue. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Bias in Metal Bulletin analysis regarding the price of Iranian export ingots
Criticisms have been leveled at Metal Bulletin’s analysis of the state of Iran’s steel. This publication usually does not receive the data it reports about Iran in a transparent way. On the other hand, due to sanctions, Iranian producers are reluctant to provide their data to this publication. The Metal Bulletin report is based on reports from internal factors affiliated with the steelmakers. Unfortunately, in addition to not being very transparent, it is not possible to verify it at the moment due to sanctions. Therefore, regarding the definite growth of the upward path of Iran’s export ingots, it cannot be mentioned precisely. However, the global market view of Iran’s export ingots has been accompanied by a price growth approach.
*** The weakness of the steel market in the current situation
It should also be noted that the current market situation is a weakness. The dependence of Iran’s domestic steel market pricing on just one dubious report and the monopoly of a foreign magazine is debatable. Unfortunately, this type of report, the validity of which is not possible for the public due to the monopoly of the source of the report and sanctions. There is room for criticism and correction.
Which is a kind of reference for determining the prices of our domestic market in the commodity exchange, which we hope will be replaced by a more logical and principled mechanism. In the current situation where the exchange rate has stabilized to some extent, these reports may not be attractive to the domestic market at all. We should not bring inflammation into the domestic market for no reason. The rise of Iran’s export ingots should not cause problems for the price path in the domestic stock exchange.
*** Comparing the price of Iranian export ingots with cis area
While the CIS export bullion is still fixed on the $ 600 axis for weeks, regardless of a $ 9 overnight round trip. Suddenly, Iran’s export bullion reported an increase of more than 3% to $ 626. It seems that some people are preparing the groundwork to increase the base rate of ingot supply in the commodity exchange for the coming week. The growth of ingot prices in the domestic market can lead to price growth in the entire steel chain. Such behaviors are not new and do not exist, the coin has been dropped for years, no matter how much it is thrown, only for the benefit of a certain group and a certain group.
*** Growth of Iranian steel export prices; Domestic steel price growth
Hopefully, the day will come when those who are terrified of words like grammatical pricing; In some places, they give up their mischief. Anyway, if the intention is that this week, $ 626 ingots will be considered to regulate the supply market of ingots in the commodity exchange this week. With the dollar exchange rate of 22900 Tomans and a coefficient of 95%, we reach the figure of 1480. Rising prices of Iranian export ingots can be the beginning of price growth in the domestic market. Now we have to wait and see where this story goes. We have to watch the market reaction to this bedrock or the attempt to change the trend. Of course, it should be noted that the ribbed rebar will be offered in the commodity exchange next week with a figure of about minus 3% lower than the previous week.
*** Evaluate the steel market in terms of coal prices
The ratio of coal to steel prices in Iran, according to the silence, is 26.5%, which is 47% far from the global spot prices. Coking coal in Chinese ports continued to grow this week due to the general supply deficit (China’s embargo on Australia) and, of course, safety issues in the country’s coal mines, which witnessed accidents and casualties last week and forced the government to shut down.
A number of mines have investigated the issue, saying that the price ratio of coking coal to steel ingots in East Asia is currently in the range of 47%, which is above 40%. The share of coke to steel ingots price was 89%, which is not far from the highest level in history. This growth is occurring over time in the price of steel ingots, which will cause the growth of world prices and the prices of Iranian export ingots in the coming weeks.
*** Strategic opportunities along the steel market
The opportunities for Iranian steel exports are endless because steel is a strategic raw material and there are many buyers for it in the world. The export of final products is very difficult, and despite the many opportunities that exist for the export of these products, unfortunately, market price fluctuations and, on the other hand, the increase in the price of climbing products are obstacles due to the increase in the price of ingots. But we emphasize that the country’s needs must be met first and then exports must be made. The rise in the price of Iran’s export ingots can provide a new path for price growth. This bedding can be very harmful.
*** The need for price differences between Iran and other countries in the current situation
There is active marketing of our country in regional and international markets, but banking mechanisms and sanctions have closed the hands and arms of exporters of steel products. These conditions of sanctions are like the conditions of war, and we must be able to export our products and return dollars to the country. The price level should be such that foreign buyers of Iranian products accept the risk of purchase and an amount Be below the original price to attract foreign buyers.
*** Loss of $ 600 support in cis bullion market
Until today, there was no news of a $ 10 reduction in CIS bullion and a loss of $ 600 bullion support. We thought that considering the basic propositions of determining the supply rate of ingots in the domestic market, including the remittance rate of the half dollar and 95% of the export rate of Iranian steel; We are almost flat and relative stability awaits the domestic market in the coming week.
The signal of a recent decrease of $ 10 in CIS export ingots means a possible reduction of 230,000 Tomans per ton in the base supply rate of next week ingots, ie a decrease of 230 Tomans per kilogram of steel in the recent pricing mechanism of the Commodity Exchange. Of course, provided that there is a supply next week. Secondly, what is the opinion of Metal Bulletin on the report of local factors to them regarding the price of Iran’s export ingots.
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