In the government’s economic opening plan, crude oil is to be supplied to the people. At the same time, the parliament is considering a plan to allocate gasoline quotas to all people instead of cars.
In this note, we present the idea that by combining these two plans, a solution can be achieved with amazing effects. A plan to sell bonds or oil futures can be a good idea, but it has some major drawbacks.
One of the major drawbacks of the plan is what to do if the government fails to sell the oil in the future? Can barrels of crude oil be delivered to the public? Can people and economic actors consume it Can they export crude oil?
Apparently, in the latest amendment, the refineries are obliged to buy oil from the people. The same task assignment for the refineries themselves could pave the way for the failure of this plan.
In this regard, it is good to have a glimpse of Venezuela’s failed experience. A few years ago, in order to counter US sanctions, the country unveiled its oil-backed digital currency called Petro. But it simply failed with US sanctions; Because the seller of crude oil is the government, and the buyers of oil are large companies and certain refineries (G2B exchanges). They easily sanction the government, and companies refuse to trade for fear of sanctions.
*** Gasoline replaces crude oil
But if gasoline is replaced by crude oil, which is an intermediate commodity used by large companies and refineries, better results are likely to be achieved. If the government is unable to sell the gasoline it produces because of sanctions, it can do so through the people and sell gasoline to the people a little cheaper than the export price. This plan does not have the problems mentioned above regarding crude oil; First of all, gasoline is the final commodity that can be consumed by the people. Secondly, there are 400 million people in neighboring countries, all of whom can be potential customers of Iranian gasoline, and given Iran’s vast borders, this capacity can be used. In this way, the reprehensible phenomenon of gasoline smuggling becomes a popular issue for gasoline exports. In this way, G2B transactions become P2P (peer to peer) which can no longer be easily sanctioned.
*** Modification of gasoline quota plan
For this purpose, it is necessary to amend the gasoline quota plan as follows:
Instead of quotas and pricing of gasoline in its current form, first, a quota is allocated to every Iranian citizen (for example, one liter per day, a total of 80 million liters per day). For this purpose, citizens’ accounts are charged digitally. The government also sells some or all of the gasoline in excess of the above quota to the people. Also, instead of pre-selling oil, gasoline is pre-sold to them at export prices.
Secondly, the digital quota of gasoline that is allocated to the people in this way can be bought and sold by them in the secondary market. In addition, people are allowed to use this quota to buy other goods and services; For example, a person who goes to a barber shop, if he agrees with the hairdresser, transfers part of his quota to him instead of Rials. This is how a gasoline-backed digital currency is formed. For this purpose, no special law and context is needed, it is enough for the government not to sabotage and obstruct.
*** Amazing effects of this design
But the amazing effects of this plan:
– Financing is provided for the government and people will not have to worry about oil remaining in the hands of the government in the future.
– With the liberalization of gasoline exports, the price rent and the distance between the internal and external value of gasoline are quickly eliminated and the price of gasoline is closer to its real value without passing the pressure to the citizens.
– People who until today wanted cheap gasoline will support its international price because they can export their surplus gasoline (traders buy and consume small gasoline from the people and export it in bulk, which is economically viable for them) .
– The most important advantage of this digital gasoline currency for citizens is that its value will not be subject to inflation tax over time; That is the same unfortunate event that happens every year for Rials! This means that citizens know that they can receive at least one liter of gasoline for each unit of these quotas. Unfortunately, there is no such obligation about Rials!
– It is predictable that this digital currency will quickly become a valuable commodity in the countries of the region, which also happens to be useful for trade exchanges and circumventing sanctions and getting rid of the dollar and other intermediate currencies.
Unlike Bitcoin, this digital currency is not decentralized and distributed, it is fully controlled by the government, so there is no need to worry about money laundering or fraudulent activities.
*** Concluding remarks
Finally, it is emphasized that such ideas have many unknown dimensions and angles that require careful consideration and are obviously not feasible overnight. In this regard, it is suggested that this plan be implemented first voluntarily in controlled areas such as Kish, then Qeshm and free zones, and then generalized to the entire country by identifying and resolving administrative problems.
At the same time, the plan to pre-sell gasoline to the people at export prices can be implemented from today and the new quota mechanism will not be suspended.
The plan of exchangeable gasoline quota was first proposed in the same column in 2006 by the author in the newspaper “Dunya-e-Eqtesad” and the plan to form a digital currency with the support of gasoline was also mentioned in 1397, in which the mentioned digital currency was mentioned We registered “Gazquin”.
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