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    De-rental of the dollar market

    شناسه : 30972 03 مهر 1399 - 11:05
    Two important decisions of the central bank in the field of banknote market and Nima system forced the dollar fluctuators to retreat from the buying position. The first decision, which was delayed, was to bring the selling price of bank exchanges closer to the open market, and the second decision was to raise the price ceiling in Nima system transactions.
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    After about 13 days, dollar market maker reduced the price gap between bank exchanges and the open market, resulting in a rapid change in the price of the dollar in Ferdowsi Street transactions.

    At the end of yesterday, the price of the dollar on the board of bank exchange offices was set at 26,750 tomans, and this market-making tactical move eliminated the foreign exchange rent resulting from sales at a price distance from the free market. In addition to this policy, the removal of the price ceiling in the Nima market will also strengthen supply in the coming days. In total, these two policy-making decisions caused the dollar to decline to the level of 26,300 tomans.

    The 14% increase in the price of the dollar in bank exchange offices and its move to the 26,000 Toman channel, blocked the way for the oscillators to further increase the price of this currency in the open market and was the end point for foreign exchange rents. This may sound strange, but the fact is that the rising value of the dollar on bank exchange boards creates two limiting possibilities for oscillators; Bringing the prices of official actors closer to the open market makes exchange offices more motivated to offer currency and sell dollars.

     

    *** Selling currency at high prices helps the market maker

    Next, selling the currency at higher rates will put more rials in the hands of the official market players; This rial can both cover part of the current expenses and increase the ability of exchange offices to buy and replace the sold currency if the price of the dollar falls.

    In fact, selling foreign exchange at high prices helps the market maker not to be the only seller in the market and to be able to maintain his market power by buying at lower prices. He had repeatedly stated in reports that before the historical ceiling of 26,000 Tomans was broken for the dollar, the fact that the price of bank exchange offices was far from the free market would bring the demand for arbitrage into the market and would become a price stimulus. Of course, the market maker tried to send such a signal by keeping the prices of the exchange offices low, which seeks to reduce the prices; However, free market traders interpreted the signal differently; “We can raise prices in the free market as we wish, and the market maker will not create an obstacle.”

    The rise in the dollar price of bank exchanges has somewhat dispelled this notion. Despite the approaching prices, the market maker needs to change the direction of expectations in the coming days in order to be able to create a stable and stable trend in the dollar market. In fact, a group of activists believe that, given the breaking of a resistance channel, it may be that bringing exchange rates closer to the market is a “post-Sohrab post-mortem” market; However, there is no denying that overtaking active market policies and taking action to change expectations can pave the way for a return to stability in asset markets.

     

    *** ۵ important events in the currency and coin market

    On the third day of the week, important events took place in the foreign exchange market; The dollar went back and forth to the 27,000 Toman channel, the coin crossed the 13 million mark, but did not stay there. Bank exchanges added more than 3,000 tomans to the dollar price. The limit on the price ceiling in the Nima market was lifted, and there were rumors of a return of $ 2,200 per person. Of these five news items, the growth of the dollar price in bank exchanges was more important for the market yesterday. At 11 o’clock in the morning, the bank exchange offices set the price of the dollar at 23,590 tomans, which was an increase of 150 tomans compared to Monday.

    However, this was not the end of the matter and around 3 o’clock in the afternoon, the selling price of the dollar in the national exchange office was set at 26,750 tomans, which was 3,160 tomans more than the previous price.

    With this growth, sales in both the currency and coin markets suddenly rose, so that the dollar, which had risen to 27,100 tomans in the open market, retreated and was sold at 26,320 tomans at the end of the day. Which was 30 tomans less than on Monday. This was the first fall in the value of the dollar since 13 September. Due to the fall of the dollar, the coin went down from the 13 million channel and decreased by 150 thousand tomans and reached the price of 12 million and 500 thousand tomans. Even after 4 pm, much lower prices were recorded in the market, which can be effective in starting the market today.

     

    *** Concluding remarks

    Another important news yesterday was the news about the removal of the price ceiling in the Nima system, which was mentioned in the report two days ago, and it was said that this issue paved the way for the Nima dollar to go to the 26,000 Toman channel. This increase, as it helps to accelerate the flow of trade and pave the way for an increase in the supply of foreign exchange to exporters, could have a decreasing effect on the open market in the coming days. It was also said that due to the rising value of the dollar in bank exchanges, the possibility of price arbitrage has been eliminated; As a result, the supply of currency to each person in the amount of $ 2,200 can be resumed.

     

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