افزونه جلالی را نصب کنید. 25 جماد ثاني 1443 Friday, 28 January , 2022 ساعت ×
  • گاه‌شمار تاریخ خورشیدی

    آبان ۱۳۹۹
    ش ی د س چ پ ج
    « مهر   آذر »
     12
    3456789
    10111213141516
    17181920212223
    24252627282930
  • × کاربر گرامی! قیمت محصولات فولادی بروز رسانی شد مشاهده قیمت ها

    Investigating the global price of gold and its impact on the domestic market

    شناسه : 31983 01 آبان 1399 - 11:22
    Although the global ounce of gold has not changed significantly from the previous days and has been fixed at $ 1,900, but the price trend of domestic gold has decreased, which is due to a significant increase in the dollar compared to yesterday, so that the US dollar through the channel of 29 thousand Toman has returned to 28 thousand Tomans and today the price of USD is 28 thousand and 500 Tomans, Euro is 33 thousand and 300 Tomans and UAE Dirham is 7 thousand and 850 Tomans.
    پ
    پ

    Regarding the relationship between the global gold price and the domestic capital market, a market expert said: “The gold market has always been a substitute for capital investment, but this issue has a precondition in our domestic market, as the main driver of the gold price in Our country is first the price of the dollar and then the global ounce.

    Each gram of 18-carat gold in the domestic open market, today one million and 338 thousand tomans, US dollar 28 thousand and 500 tomans and all-spring Azadi coins of the new design 14 million and the price of the old design coins 13 million and 500 thousand tomans and the coin bubble is empty Is.

    Although the global ounce of gold has not changed significantly from the previous days and has been fixed at $ 1,900, but the price trend of domestic gold has decreased, which is due to a significant increase in the dollar compared to yesterday, so that the US dollar through the channel of 29 thousand Toman has returned to 28 thousand Tomans and today the price of USD is 28 thousand and 500 Tomans, Euro is 33 thousand and 300 Tomans and UAE Dirham is 7 thousand and 850 Tomans.

     

    *** Dollar and coin price trends

    Also in the open market, the price of Bahar Azadi half coin is 7 million and 600 thousand Tomans, Bahar Azadi quarter coin is 4 million and 950 thousand Tomans and gram coin is 2 million and 300 thousand Tomans.
    It is noteworthy that the price of gold and coins in the market has been declining since the previous day, and this price decrease is due to the decrease in the price of currency; Therefore, the price of coins withdrew from the channel of 15 million Tomans to 14 million Tomans, and with the continuation of the downward trend of prices in Sunday afternoon transactions, the price of coins reached the channel of 13 million Tomans.

    Today, the selling price of the dollar in reputable bank exchange offices has been announced with a significant decrease compared to the final prices of the previous working day, 27,780 Tomans, and the purchase price of the dollar has been announced as 27,680 Tomans.
    In banking exchanges and the organized foreign exchange market, the buying and selling rates of the dollar and the euro fluctuate and change several times during the day in proportion to the fluctuations of the free market.

     

    *** Global gold outlook for the coming days

    Most analysts’ forecasts for gold prices this week are on the rise, as the market appears to have announced a strong support and support floor of $ 1,850 and the news of the US president’s illness will also affect the upward trend in gold ounce prices. Will leave.

     

    *** The effect of Trump’s corona on world gold

    Corona’s arrival at the White House has made big investors more confident about the future of gold. At the end of last week, the price of gold rose by $ 38 – 2% – one dollar below 1900.

    According to the latest results published by Kitco Weekly Survey, the gold market has begun its upward trend and is poised to increase. Feelings are rising among retail investors and market analysts. Although both mainstream investors and Wall Street analysts expect gold prices to continue to rise next week, the market will remain cautious after its worst monthly performance in nearly four years.

     

    *** What percentage is Wall Street confident of climbing?

    Wall Street, which did not comment on the uptrend or downturn in the market in the past few days, is clearly in the uptrend these days. This week, 16 analysts took part in the Kitco poll. 10 voters – 63% – have given the possibility of a rise in gold prices. Two analysts – 13% – predict that gold prices will fall next week. Four analysts – 25 percent – also expect the price of gold to remain unchanged.

    As can be seen, after returning to the price floor of the last 10 months, the emotional situation among retail investors has improved significantly. In public online polls, a total of 1,194 votes were collected, according to which 749 participants – 63% – predicted that gold would rise, 245 – 21% – viewed the downward trend of the gold market, and 198 or 17 The percentage of their opinion is that the market is neutral.

     

    *** What do polls say about ounces of gold?

    Some analysts also predict that the ongoing turmoil will continue in the run-up to the November US election (about a month) over a short period of time to support prices. Gold market price changes entered a new phase on Friday after the US President announced that the results of the Covid-19 test were positive.

     

    *** How long will the dollar last?

    “At least for now, it seems that a reliable floor for gold has been formed,” said Afshin Nabavi, head of business at UMCS Switzerland. This week, he said, an ounce of gold will see a range of $ 1920 to $ 1,875.

    Carsten Fritsch, a commodities analyst at Commerzbank, also said that the US dollar index showed significant resistance last week with a index above 93 points and limited gold performance. However, he added that a weakening US dollar and rising gold prices could only take time. “At some point, the US dollar should fall and the end of the dollar will be good for gold,” he said.

    Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, said he was neutral on gold because the market could not keep up with what has happened in recent days. “Given that gold could not rise significantly when the news of the US president being infected with Covid-19 was released, the market is not ready to rise,” he said. “I would like to be bullish on gold, but I do not see any signs of a rise in prices at the moment.”

     

    *** The impact of global gold on the domestic market

    Regarding the relationship between the global gold price and the domestic capital market, a market expert said: “The gold market has always been a substitute for capital investment, but this issue has a precondition in our domestic market, as the main driver of the gold price in Our country is first the price of the dollar and then the global ounce.

    He continued: Some time The price of the dollar in our country is increasing. The price fluctuations of the dollar originate from the domestic economy of our country, and various factors such as the government budget deficit and trade balance deficit in trade, export and import issues play a significant role in the price of the dollar. Given that the domestic problems of our economy remain strong, the dollar will naturally continue to rise.

    At the end of his speech, the capital market expert said: “Gold alone can not be a tough competitor for the capital market, but because the dollar is on the rise and the price of gold in Iran is also affected by the price of the dollar, so it can be concluded that It is a good market for low-risk people, and some join the gold market as capital outflows.

     

    *** Confrontation of coins and dollars

    If we examine the daily trend of coin prices, we come to the conclusion that this precious metal is more in line with the movement of the dollar. In fact, the coin did not move with the dollar only a few times in 1999, while the price of domestic precious metals and world gold are almost twice as high. These statistics, according to some domestic market traders, prove that the price of coins is more dependent on fluctuations in the dollar in daily trading. However, it should not be forgotten that the effect of the increase in gold is gradually seen in the price of coins.

     

    *** Global ounce and coin price trends in Iran

    The issue that must be taken into account is that the trend of global ounce and coin price trends in Iran does not necessarily follow a logical and predetermined behavior. The effects of global price changes usually if they enter the Iranian gold market, sometimes with time changes And it is accompanied by delays, and we have seen this issue many times in gold trading, and some analysts have reported that the domestic gold price is falling short of the world average price, and have pointed out the cross-sectional attractiveness of this market. Another point to consider is the decision-making indicators of gold traders.

    In this way, usually the trading prices in the gold market are much more affected than the daily price of the dollar. Because in today’s Iranian market, gold is priced based on the price of the dollar. Usually, with the fall of the dollar, the coin reacts immediately and does not wait for the complexity of global transactions and equations. An important issue for coin traders is to ensure that gold prices are floor-to-ceiling.

     

    *** Favorable conditions of coin traders

    It is important to note that coin traders are very willing to buy and sell in a situation where market volatility is low and they can estimate the profit and loss limits and plan their transactions. Therefore, the most important tool that shows the calm state of the market is changes in the dollar exchange rate 24 hours a day. If the market was in a situation that they did not like, parallel markets such as stock exchanges, cars, goods and electronic devices are certainly a safe haven for their capital.

    Unfortunately, for people with little experience, the situation is a bit complicated. Because the inflow of smart money into parallel markets is usually cross-sectional and it is not possible to move to parallel markets in the medium term if the gold market is less attractive. It is debatable that in the international market, the trend of speculation is completely different from the current situation in Iran. Emotional behaviors in Iran have the power to move prices, and this issue is less and less strongly observed in the international stock market.

    In the end, it should be said that global gold is a medium-term variable to affect domestic gold prices in Iran, and shocks such as daily changes in oil prices, Trump’s illness, etc. can not enter the Iranian gold pricing equations alone and in the short term. And change it. But political risks such as the Azerbaijan-Armenia war and the escalation of sanctions resulting from the Sino-US trade war and any geopolitical threat could affect the price of world gold and subsequently the price of Iranian gold, which we will address in future analysis.

     

    Artan Press

    این مطلب بدون برچسب می باشد.

    این خبرها را نیز از دست ندهید

    ثبت دیدگاه

    • دیدگاه های ارسال شده توسط شما، پس از تایید توسط تیم مدیریت در وب منتشر خواهد شد.
    • پیام هایی که حاوی تهمت یا افترا باشد منتشر نخواهد شد.
    • پیام هایی که به غیر از زبان فارسی یا غیر مرتبط باشد منتشر نخواهد شد.