Recently, the Economist Analytical Journal revealed the state of Iran’s economic growth, noting that Iran’s economy has been on a downward trend due to the damage caused by the Coronavirus epidemic and the consequences of unilateral US sanctions, until a rate by the end of this year. They have estimated the equivalent of 18% decline in the economic index. Therefore, this issue became an excuse to examine the factors affecting Iran’s economic growth. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Evaluate economic growth patterns
Analysis of economic growth patterns has a special place in economic issues. Today, macroeconomics attaches great importance to the issue of growth and patterns of economic growth with a new approach. The emergence of deep divisions between rich and poor countries in the twentieth century and the emergence of significant differences in economic growth rates and welfare levels of these countries, made it especially important to discuss the causes and economic growth and explore its factors. .
*** Picture the rate of economic growth of the power of countries
The rate of economic growth shows a good picture of the economic situation of a country and in practice in the world of economics shows the success and prosperity of the people of a country related to the issue of social welfare. This issue is an indicator to show the overall health of the economy. Study of economic growth rate is very important both in terms of factors affecting it such as labor, capital accumulation, human development, technical progress and in terms of its relationship with indicators such as education, health, freedom and quality of life. Is.
*** Drawing patterns of economic growth
The study of the causes and factors of economic growth has always been of special interest to various economic schools and several growth models have been designed for it. Classical economists identified only tangible capital as the engine of economic growth and development, while neoclassical growth patterns emphasize factors such as per capita income and technical advances. Endogenous growth patterns emphasize a wide range of variables to justify differences in countries’ economic growth rates, including natural resources, input productivity, human capital, geography, environment, and government performance.
*** A look at the current situation in Iran to achieve economic growth
Considering the intensification of economic and financial sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran in the past decade, which was aimed at slowing down the economic growth of the country, as well as the need for policy makers and economic activists to deal with the negative effects of shocks and crises. External economic growth, the issue of economic resilience has been considered
In a way, if we are looking for economic growth and the growth of the country’s economic indicators, as an economic activist, we must know the resilience indicators of an economy well and be proficient in analyzing it. Currently, we are witnessing a situation in the country where foreign exchange, monetary and customs policies are moving in the same direction, and in practice, the confrontation of the forces of these factors will slow down the country’s economic growth. Despite the unilateral sanctions, it is easy to follow the growing trend better every day than the day before by improving the quality of economic resilience indicators.
*** Economic resilience index
In the world economic literature of the last decade, a measure called “economic resilience index” is used to measure the degree of resistance of the economy to external shocks and crises. According to the theoretical foundations of this index, increasing the level of economic resilience can strengthen economic growth by increasing the strength of the economy against external shocks and crises and reducing their negative consequences.
*** Global resilience on a global scale
In the last two decades, the global economy has faced numerous shocks and financial crises in different parts of the world, from the Asian crisis in the 1990s to the global financial and banking crisis of 2008. These shocks have had significant negative effects on the economies of many countries around the world. The intensity of this influence of countries depended on the two issues of economic vulnerability and economic resilience of those countries.
The resilience of the economy can be used in two senses: first, the ability of the economy to absorb the effects of external economic shocks, and second, to neutralize the effects of these shocks. The ability of an economy to absorb and neutralize the effects of shocks and financial and economic crises, which are always accompanied by economic flexibility, enables the country to recover and improve after the adverse effects of shocks.
*** Economic resilience in the perspective of 1404
Now the leading issue is that due to the need to adhere to the goals of Vision 1404, especially the realization of rapid and continuous economic growth in the country’s economic planning and the need to achieve a high economic growth rate, the impact of economic resilience index and its components What about economic growth?
General economic policies that seek to maximize the use of the endogenous capacities of the national economy and minimize economic and social vulnerabilities to various national and international shocks and crises, need to define and measure indicators that can grade And show the intensity of the country’s economic resistance to external shocks and crises. In recent years, especially after the financial shocks of 1995 and 2008 and the negative consequences of these shocks on the economies of many countries and in order to deal with the adverse consequences of the leading crises, the issue of economic resilience has been considered by scientific and political circles. Is.
Today, not only international centers and organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have addressed this issue, but also elites and policymakers Economists have also developed programs to monitor, plan and implement approaches to strengthen the economy.
*** The importance of paying attention to the resilience of the Iranian economy
Despite all the existing economic challenges, including sanctions and biological challenges such as the corona and the devaluation of the national currency, Iran is in a situation where it is estimated that Iran’s economic growth will be positive by the end of 2020. So there are definitely components in the Iranian economy that have kept the economy alive with all the pulses. That is why the issue of resilience is so important for the Iranian economy.
*** The relationship between Iran and world development indicators
The need to study the economic resilience index in the Iranian economy not only depends on the progress of developed and developing countries in the study of this important economic index, but also depends on the risks that can occur in the event of external shocks, the country To threaten. On the other hand, the main approach of general economic policies is to promote economic indicators in order to achieve the goals of the vision document of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the horizon of 1404 and specifically to achieve the goal of rapid and continuous economic growth.
Therefore, it is necessary to measure Iran’s economic resilience index in order to theoretically and empirically examine its promotion mechanisms as well as its positive effects on economic growth. For example, if the Chinese steel market has an upward trend As China’s largest supplier of mineral raw materials, Iran will have a clear economic outlook. Therefore, international cooperation should be considered in studies related to economic growth.
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