For two consecutive days, the stock market has again witnessed the days of decline and decline of the total stock index, which has been evaluated from different perspectives by different analysts. In this note, we will deal with the latest situation of the stock market and forecast the price movement of symbols. Please be with Artan Press.
In the last stock notes leading to today’s market, in previous posts, we had presented various comments and scenarios, one of which was the index resistance in 1600. It was natural to see a sharp wave of supply with the first stock market aftershocks.
An issue that has worried many shareholders is the experience of summer stock falls. This is because many people entered the market last month and if stock-like losses occur, each portfolio will fall by an average of 40%.
But a review by Artan Press experts shows that in the current situation, and given the leverage of money-strengthening policies and significant legal protections from the stock market, the market will not see a decline like in August ’99. Because we are neither in terms of time nor the fundamental factors in the conditions of decline.
*** Status of variables affecting the stock movement
In the current situation, all the variables affecting the stock market movement are in moderate and sometimes appropriate conditions. Only a political mega-news can take the stock market out of orbit, which I have not heard about so far. For example, Trump’s possible return to the US election scenario is an issue that could upset the stock and currency markets in the country. What can be seen now is the stable trend of stock exchange trading, which has taken its upward path, and how the ascent rate will proceed in the future is strongly tied to the factors active in the market and to the legal entities.
It seems that in the current situation, the market should be analyzed in its own context and independent of external factors. In the current situation, events such as coding and moving stocks and the volume of some stocks have more important signals than exchange rate changes and political news. In the current situation, only fear in the market has caused the retreat of shareholders. Because stock market risk is higher than other parallel markets this year, shareholders often do not risk heavy entries.
*** The behavior of traders in the current conditions of the capital market
Evaluation of market events shows that in the current situation, despite the negative days in the market, the recognition of profits and stock movements is taking place, but the historical memory of traders makes them more cautious and quickly intends to avoid the recurrence of bitter events by suffering negatively. This is what has caused the fluctuations to appear more than usual. Earlier, there was talk of reform in the index of one million and five hundred thousand units.
But rumors and fears in the CI market turned the market fluctuations into big fluctuations. Unfortunately, in the current market, the notion of fear and the notion of profit, in other words, monotony, have hit the market, and both have caused the stock market to deviate from its direct and balanced path. Monotheism means that the opinion of all traders is the same, everyone believes in rising or everyone believes in falling! In this situation, no one is willing to play a role on the other side of the deal!
The point to consider is that it is in this direction that the market changes its course. This surprises a lot of stock market players. Right at the peak of analysts’ views, the market rotates, both rising and falling.
*** Stock market behavior in the next 4 to 6 months
It seems that the stock market is a safe haven for attracting stray capital in the society in the next 4 to 6 months. This time period for the stock market is a medium-term path that must be carefully evaluated by analysts. Leaving this time frame may be a strategic mistake.
When it comes to six-month intervals, short-term surveys should no longer be chosen for equity. The six-month path of the stock market shows that the entry of money into the market will not follow a uniform and linear path. Therefore, minor reforms in this direction are inevitable and even necessary.
Previously, this inflow of liquidity took place in a uniform manner, and now this procedure has fluctuated. Although the market is fluctuating in the short term and going up and down, it is finally rising by the result of the forces.
*** The capital market can no longer be analyzed
The stock market is a bit out of logic due to the experience of heavy bubbles in the last one year. In the market of the past year, we have witnessed an event that discouraged the real analysts of the stock market, because the path of the stock market did not correspond in any way to the technical and fundamental analysis. Our market has become more “emotion-driven” than ever before over the past year, and the weight of analysis has fallen sharply.
The game has reached its peak with this feeling and behavior, which is why the improvement of the basic components is not seen at all in stock exchange transactions. I think with the market fluctuating and the buying and selling queues, the mass view of the investor will change to a volatile view, and investors will no longer be afraid to sell shares in the sell queue because they think they will easily buy the shares again at lower prices.
This is where shareholders need to take a rational path instead of emotionally behaving in the stock market. Sharing is a gift that can save the market in negative days. This may be done several times to change the taste of the investor, but in the end, the queues will be the losers of this game and will have no return other than confusion and stress.
*** Determinants of stock market movement
Fortunately, the one-minded market is a temporary market, but rest assured that the main actors will make the most of it. If you do not have a strategy, you will definitely be one of the infantry in this formal war. The stock market space will move towards emotional and behavioral space, and stock market reading can no longer be easily extracted from the basic and technical components.
In the coming months, especially with the rise of the stock market, the pulse of the market and the behavior of retailers will be a determining factor in the movement of the capital market. Although this is not a good space for analyzing and buying and selling stocks, it seems that we have inadvertently entered this era of the Tehran Stock Exchange.
Gradually, as financial literacy improves, this space will diminish. The situation in the stock market will change completely whenever shareholders do not prefer definite gains based on a share and somehow dare to bear a short period of losses. If stock market managers want to support the stock market, they must pay attention to the supply and demand environment, as well as increase the analytical power of shareholders and the market excitement.
*** The effects of the heavy fall of the capital market this summer
After the heavy downturn in the stock market this summer, many shareholders have somehow learned that they have to stock up, and speculation is not something that can be achieved with a few hours of training. On the other hand, every natural and legal person must define the range of profit and loss for himself.
A stock is not going to be traded at billions. This is where the government and regulators will determine the shape of the market. It is in the shadow of this psychological space that the basic data is seen, the intermediate functions are highlighted, and global prices are seen.
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