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Global Oil Outlook

شناسه : 37339 ۰۶ دی ۱۳۹۹ - ۱۴:۳۰

In this memo, we will examine the most important factors influencing global oil price changes. The latest reports from sources of oil sales indicate that oil prices rose on Thursday, which helped buy more oil on a day when oil trading volume has declined. Stay tuned to Artan Press until the end to discuss other […]

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In this memo, we will examine the most important factors influencing global oil price changes. The latest reports from sources of oil sales indicate that oil prices rose on Thursday, which helped buy more oil on a day when oil trading volume has declined. Stay tuned to Artan Press until the end to discuss other developments in the oil field.

We start by examining prices from US oil deals. West Texas Intermediate futures traded up disappointing in the global trading session, but US oil futures traded slightly higher than expected on Thursday due to rising power on the energy exchange.

 

*** Increased oil supply after the trade agreement between Britain and the European Union

Early yesterday, more trades were made in the market due to concerns about the new type of COVID-19, as this could close the markets and this temporary closure would put oil prices back on the rise, but in the middle of the day. Following the trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union, supply was boosted again and the outlook for the global economy brightened. This stabilized supply and demand on the European Energy Exchange and minimized the level of excitement.

Just seven days before leaving one of the world’s largest trade unions, Britain is plotting a short-term trade deal with the European Union in its most significant global change since the loss of the empire. Crude traders hope the new deal will boost demand after the end of the Corona epidemic and a return to normalcy.

 

*** Short term global oil outlook

Brent crude, which is the world standard, rose 8 percent to $ 42.45 a barrel, near a recent high of $ 45.86 a barrel on August 25. As hedge funds are long-term and traders are in favorable conditions in the bullish days of the market, it is likely that the bullish trend in oil prices will be maintained until the end of this year.

This week, the US government’s oil inventory report helped push up oil prices, as traders announced a new version of COVID-19 in the UK and a shutdown of domestic and international flights. Traders pay close attention to rising US oil rigs They did not unite and reported that OPEC Plus was ready to increase its production by 500,000 barrels per day from January 1 due to the greater concentration of vaccines.

The technical trends and instruments of oil price movement in the market show a strong upward trend, but some oscillators show excessive buying conditions. Given that consumers have made surplus purchases, it is not possible to expect sharp Sharp growth for oil. On the other hand, due to the reopening of most businesses in European countries, it is likely that the process of buying oil will be done in a stepped manner so that producers do not have the opportunity for sharp price growth.

 

*** General policy of the world oil market

The general policy of the oil market, like other financial markets, is based on a balance of supply and demand. When the buyers of global oil stop and the sellers take control of the oil market, the market will enter a phase of stagnation and will stop. The trend will change significantly as oil prices move down $ 46.16 a barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up 11 cents at $ 48.23 a barrel, while Brent oil futures were up 9 cents at $ 51.29. It should be noted that on the last day of trading before the Christmas holidays, the volume of free trades was underestimated.

 

*** US crude oil prices

Last week, US crude fell 1.6 percent, while Brent crude fell 2 percent. Since the end of October, with the development of vaccines in various countries, the markets have been desperately seeking to make up for their shortcomings in last year’s performance, and this could lead to a jump in oil prices. Of course, attention to the new type of virus in global oil price analysis will not be ineffective.

Global markets are projected to begin and continue to change with the terms and policies of the Biden program. This event of global prices in the field of commodities, especially metals, as well as bitcoin, has caused a positive reaction, and stock markets are also adapting to the coming days.

Unless there is an unexpected turn in the US election, and if Biden takes over the presidency, the oil market will take a different path from other global stock exchanges. Due to Biden’s environmental policies, the reaction of oil markets will be negative and a very positive outlook is not expected in the next four years. Therefore, the country’s policymakers should pay special attention to this issue

 

*** Negative outlook for the global oil market in the post-Trump era

The mixed outlook for the oil market in the post-Trump era has led oil-producing countries to slow down prices in the current context. In this regard, we can refer to OPEC’s tough decisions to stabilize the global oil market.

Some informed sources believe that the worrying outlook for the global economy and the recent drop in oil prices will cause OPEC and its allies to decide at their next meeting to further reduce production. In the event of changes in OPEC policies, this issue will also enter the Iranian consumer and energy markets, and the domestic markets in the next few days, with relatively sharp fluctuations in world prices, will naturally find themselves with They will implement the expected outlook.

 

*** Overview of the global oil market

The overall outlook for the oil market is that oil prices continue to rise despite all the fluctuations and shocks in the market, and investors are currently focused on reducing global oil production and address issues such as the growing spread of the Corona virus. They will not pay much attention. Of course, it should not be forgotten that the Corona crisis is by no means controlled and continues to be the most important factor in the economic calculations of the energy market.

In order for the price increase trend in the energy market to be certain, all oil-producing countries must reach a common dialogue on crude oil production. Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE and Kuwait, said yesterday that 1.180 million barrels per day from Production will decline in June to boost global prices. This issue was less raised by Saudi Arabia, and the publication of this news shows the weakening of the economic base of this single-product country.

 

*** Middle East and US oil production

Saudi Arabia and other major OPEC producers add a total of 800,000 barrels per day to the market. Outside of OPEC, on the other hand, US production is expected to decline by an average of 1 million barrels per day by 2021, as declining drilling drives lead to further declines.

In addition to potential fluctuations, oversupply due to disruptions in the Middle East, increasing dependence on Middle Eastern raw materials, and the consequences of global average oil quality.

In the current context, investors are focusing on the trend of weekly changes in oil reserves in US reservoirs. The amount of crude oil reserves stored in the United States has always been a measure of the outlook for oil pricing in energy markets.

Other factors that line global oil prices in the short term are the production process of some micro-companies in the market. It was closed at the beginning of May, but is now planning to return to the production cycle with a 25% increase in production due to rising oil prices.

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