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Examining foreign exchange market shocks

شناسه : 37587 ۰۸ دی ۱۳۹۹ - ۱۷:۰۰

The dollar has a very direct impact on the pricing of Iranian goods and services and is an integral part of Iran’s economic policies. Recently, after the announcement of the US election results, we are witnessing changes in the pricing of gold and dollars in the Iranian market. Due to the reduction of security and […]

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The dollar has a very direct impact on the pricing of Iranian goods and services and is an integral part of Iran’s economic policies. Recently, after the announcement of the US election results, we are witnessing changes in the pricing of gold and dollars in the Iranian market. Due to the reduction of security and political risks in Iran’s four-year outlook, the dollar price is expected to adjust slightly and follow a downward trend in the long run. To examine this issue in more detail, we will analyze the factors affecting the foreign exchange market rate in more detail. Please subscribe Artan Press.

 

*** Evaluate the price of the dollar from the perspective of oil sales

One of the most important revenue channels of the Islamic Republic in recent years has been the sale of crude oil, which accounted for about 60% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings. In the current situation, due to the imposition of heavy sanctions by the United States, the sale of Iranian oil had fallen sharply, and one of the reasons for the inflammation in the foreign exchange market was the reduction of oil sales and oil exchange.

With the positive outlook for the sale of Iranian oil in the post-Trump era, it is likely that the conditions for securing the country’s currency became better than the current situation, and in practice, this issue has had a positive psychological burden on commodity markets.

With the opening of new routes for the sale of oil, some of the risks of providing foreign exchange will be eliminated. This issue, along with rising world oil prices, will greatly help to reduce the exchange rate inside the country. Capital Economics predicts in its latest analysis that oil prices will rise to more than $ 60 a barrel by the end of 2021.

While OPEC Plus recently agreed to increase its daily oil production by 500,000 barrels from the beginning of January, Capital Economics predicts that the price of oil will reach more than $ 60 a barrel by the end of next year. The main reason for the rise in oil prices is the increase in demand due to the elimination of part of the health risks caused by the global corona virus epidemic.

 

*** Factors affecting the price line of the dollar

Another topic that will help a lot in shaping the price of the dollar will be the atmosphere of political news in the coming days. This news can have a wide range. It is enough for Mal that Trump does not hand over the presidency to the next president in a compromising way. In this situation, we will see a sharp rise in the price of the dollar.

In the current situation, the dollar is heavily influenced by political news; It is political news that shows optimism or pessimism about the future of the country’s economy and especially the future of sanctions. So as long as Trump is in the presidential palace, there are these fluctuations. But it is predicted that immediately after the official end of Trump’s presidency, the foreign exchange markets in Iran will decline and return to their real prices. In such circumstances, the price of the dollar in figures such as 17,000 tomans is conceivable.

 

*** Military risks of the Persian Gulf and the inflamed foreign exchange market

Unfortunately, the countries of the region are contributing to the geopolitical turmoil in the region. Security issues and military risks created in the Persian Gulf are a factor that has kept the foreign exchange market in Iran very inflamed in the current situation. The new issue is that war-mongering and instability policies are being seen again in the Persian Gulf.

The recent arrival of two US-Israeli submarines in the Persian Gulf has inflamed economic agents and clouded the future of relations between Iran and other countries. With the announcement of this news, it was natural that the downward trend of the exchange rate would stop again and naturally its price would increase.

 

*** Exit from economic crises by reforming the foreign exchange market

As previously mentioned, price fluctuations in all commodity groups in Iran are strongly dependent on exchange rate fluctuations. In this regard, if the price of the dollar experiences a significant correction, we will see a significant part of the economic crisis. As in December of this year, this issue somehow showed its impact. With the dollar falling 2% in December, the expected inflation fire subsided and the inflation rate fell by about 2% in one month.

Of course, according to the latest inflation statistics in December, it is estimated at about 45%, and this is very unfortunate, but this decrease in the dollar rate will help stop the growth of inflation. Despite all this, the price situation is considered unfavorable in many groups. The increase in prices in the transportation group in December this year compared to last year was 65.2%, which is the highest point inflation among the groups.

 

*** Forecasts for the dollar exchange rate by the end of the year

The clear message of this statistic is the reduction of expected inflation and, consequently, the improvement of the government’s ability to finance through bonds, which can change the forecasts for the dollar exchange rate by the end of the year. It is enough that something unexpected does not happen in political relations in the next month, so that the dollar starts to fall and decreases until it adjusts to real rates.

These 25 days, that is, until the day of the inauguration of the President of the United States, are very crucial and one cannot make serious predictions about the markets. In these 26 days, the price of the dollar is affected by political developments, both at home and abroad, and will be accompanied by instability. But from the point of view of economics and social indicators and shocks, all markets are preparing to reduce the dollar.

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