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The impact of the global steel market on the domestic market

شناسه : 37676 ۱۰ دی ۱۳۹۹ - ۱۷:۰۰

These days, domestic steel markets are very close to world market prices, so that price changes in the global market are reviewed daily by investors and final buyers, and domestic steel market prices are examined. Perhaps in a shorter period of history. Steel transactions This convergence and regression has been observed in the Iranian and […]

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These days, domestic steel markets are very close to world market prices, so that price changes in the global market are reviewed daily by investors and final buyers, and domestic steel market prices are examined. Perhaps in a shorter period of history. Steel transactions This convergence and regression has been observed in the Iranian and international steel markets. In this section, we will discuss the price developments in the global steel market and their impact on domestic steel prices. Please be with Artan Press.

As the first factor, we deal with the total price index of the World Steel Exchange. It should be noted that forecasts show that global steel production will decline by 8.7% in May, but China will increase production. China has had a very successful steel performance in the past year and has a high maneuverability in buying and selling and even changing its steel production due to its high potential in steel storage.

 

*** Consequences of declining global steel production

If the global steel production decreases, due to the rising demand fever in the steel market, we will see the growth of prices in all steel sections, and on the other hand, these inflammations will be extended to the domestic market. Therefore, it is predicted that if the market continues with the same procedure, we will see a 15% growth in world steel prices and, consequently, a 20% growth in domestic steel prices.

Data from the World Steel Association on Monday showed that there is a sharp contrast between steel production in China, which is largely pursuing a stronger production path. China, the world’s largest consumer of crude steel, rose 4.2 percent year-on-year to 92.3 million tonnes in May.

If China continues to buy crude steel, the demand for purchase from Iran is likely to increase significantly, and as the crude steel export market becomes heavier, the price of scrap and steel ingots in the domestic market will likely increase. Because heavy purchases by the Chinese have increased the price of domestic iron ore, and this immediately affects the price of ingots and scrap iron.

 

*** Predict the slow growth of global steel demand

The short-term outlook for the global steel market indicates uncertainty about trade and financial market fluctuations, which continues to affect industrial activity and may pose further downside risks. According to World Steel studies, global steel demand growth Due to the normalization of the situation and the reduction of corona risks and the positive news of the discovery of the corona vaccine, it has caused the trust in the markets to return and the demand floor to become a little heavier.

Since the entry of the steel market by the producers was not cross-sectional and was similar to the invasion of the raw materials market to compensate for the losses of the past year, we are witnessing excitement in some steel markets of the world, especially the steel ingots market.

 

*** Impact of the new steel pricing policy

Recently, a new steel pricing method has been introduced in Iran, which has its supporters and opponents. Some believe that this policy has made the situation more difficult for the final consumer by raising the price of steel products, and on the other hand, some believe that steel prices in Iran are close to their real figures and this policy has caused a large rent. Remove from the domestic steel market.

The biggest advantage of this policy is the approach of domestic market prices to the global steel market. Approaching international standards should be welcomed, because the way to progress is to match the country’s performance and statistics with other countries. One of the factors that has caused the Iranian steel market to be more influenced by the international market is the subject of the policy. Is a new steel pricing.

With the new rate of half a dollar in the commodity exchange and the calculation of export prices of steel products, the Iranian market has practically risen to the heights of globalization. At first, the prices of some goods may have risen, but the ground has been prepared for exports, and the steel industry will benefit entirely from this policy.

 

*** Global forecasts of the steel ingot market

This week is the last week of December, and according to the Steel Market Regulation, which has not yet been amended, CIS prices this week will be the basis for the base price of ingots and steel products in January on the Commodity Exchange. Prices in world markets have risen sharply since November, and these global prices are likely to be more reflected in the domestic market from next week. For this reason, today, steel ingots were traded 22% higher than the base rate on the Commodity Exchange. In fact, highly competitive ingot buyers from this week welcomed higher ingot prices in the following weeks. Today the demand for ingots more than doubled the supply.

A look at the average global steel prices recently released by the Maps Institute over the past year shows that hot-rolled sheet prices rose from an average of $ 591 per tonne in January 2020 to $ 766 per tonne in December. The lowest average price was recorded in July, which was $ 517 per ton. This means that the price of hot rolled sheet entered an upward phase after a flooring in 2020, creating an acceptable result with its flooring. Is.

 

*** Downstream steel industries await price growth

Most likely, as this trend continues, we will see the impact of this issue in the automotive and home appliance industries. Since in the Iranian market these transactions will be done with the approved half currency, we will see the growth of car and home appliance prices. Even if vomiting grows If Matt does not occur in these two markets, the profit margins of the actors in these two markets will decrease.

Similar analyzes for the rebar market assume the same data. There is virtually no sign of falling prices in the financial data of global steel markets. The reasons for this are clear. First, due to the normalization of industrial business conditions and the return to the market, due to the recent confidence in the corona vaccine, the demand has increased worldwide and there is no reason for the decrease in demand. The second reason can be considered political issues such as choice and political tensions in the Middle East, which enclose a large part of the steel resources and create conditions for everyone to buy steel raw materials.

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