Next year’s budget is the main cause of the dispute between the parliament and the government these days. The government trusts in planning and controlling its budget, while the parliament believes that this budget will make the future more indebted and ruin social capital. These factors have caused the budget dispute between the parliament and the government to heat up. In the following, we will deal with different aspects of this issue. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Parliament and government disputes over exchange rates
Despite the war and disputes between the parliament and the government over the budget and the possibility of a complete rejection of the budget in the initial stages, the work of USD 4,200 has been halved, but with various removal scenarios and the preferred currency allocated to the import of basic goods in 1400 compared to this year. And this figure is provided only from foreign exchange earnings from crude oil exports, which the government’s share forecast for this sector will be 4 billion and 854 million dollars.
*** The end of the currency is 4200 Tomans
In the fields of business related to basic goods, animal husbandry and poultry, agriculture, pharmaceuticals and medicine, this statistic is extremely important. It seems that the currency case of 4200 Tomans is to be closed after nearly 3 years. A policy that was accompanied by many margins from the beginning and always led to a wave of criticism from consumers and producers. Go.
*** Fights over the method of removing the currency of 4200 Tomans
While the 1400 budget has been examined in the parliament, Baharestan residents are taking more cautious steps to remove this item. Even the president announced last week that they have the same position and do not disagree on the elimination of the 4200 Toman currency of the government and the parliament. Their differences are over time and method of execution. The government is in favor of phasing out, and as mentioned, some goods have been removed from the list over time.
*** People’s livelihood, the first goal of the budget
In the process of reforming the budget structure for the benefit of the people, the parliament has considered 5 main approaches, the first approach is to strengthen the people’s livelihood by maintaining their purchasing power, reducing waste and preventing the pockets of brokers and rent-seekers from filling up. In this regard, the budget dispute between the government and the parliament was drawn to the stock exchange. The parliament has declared that we will never consider this situation in the capital market acceptable and the government must be very accountable in this regard.
*** Parliament and government scholarship disputes
Even Qalibaf explicitly mentioned the invitation of the people to participate in the stock exchange from the government base and said that it is not possible to invite the people behind the official tribunes to put everything on the stock exchange and then damage the people’s trust by mismanagement in this market. And devalue their capital.
The parliament cannot be indifferent to such massive losses of the people in the stock market. Accordingly, the Minister of Economy and the head of the Exchange Organization have been summoned to the Economic Commission, and if they are mismanaged by the people’s representatives, the parliament will deal with them decisively. The government must restore social capital and people’s trust in the capital market as soon as possible.
*** The growth of currency prices in the proposed budget of the parliament
Other aspects of the budget dispute between the parliament and the government are related to the issue of currency pricing next year. During the review of the 1400 budget bill, the Parliamentary Consolidation Commission decided that instead of having 4 rates in the budget bill, the calculations of this bill are based only on the calculated currency of 17,500 Tomans, which is the same rate that the government claimed would be half the exchange rate next year. be done.
In other words, the parliament increased the calculated exchange rate of the budget bill from 11,500 to 17,500 tomans and monopolized the exchange rate in this bill. This is also not operational from the government’s point of view and can lead to rents. On the other hand, the government believes that including these rates in budget calculations will increase inflation and increase the bubble in imported goods.
*** Budgetary implications for the thirteenth government
There are several scenarios for the exchange rate next year. While the parliament is talking about the elimination of 4,200 Tomans in next year’s budget, the president has proposed two exchange rate models a month apart, and it seems that the determination of the dollar exchange rate is not going to be happy in the end.
The determination of the dollar rate by the Rouhani government will be done while the next government, the thirteenth government, will be the main executor, and both the people and the next government will have to bear the damages and possible consequences of wrong decisions. At the cabinet meeting, the President referred to the rate of 25,000 Tomans as an unrealistic rate and believes that with the release of the blocked Iranian money in South Korea, which amounts to 7 billion dollars, the dollar will stand at the rate of 15 to 16 thousand Tomans. .
*** Disagreement between parliament and government over blocked dollars
This has become another factor in the budget dispute between the parliament and the government. The parliament believes that it is not possible to rely on the release of blocked funds and rely on them for next year’s budget calculations. However, the government is very optimistic about this issue and in the news of the last few days, it considers the release of Iranian financial resources abroad, especially South Korea, before the new year to be very probable.
*** The stock market is tied to the budget
The equations of the stock market are becoming more complex and it seems that political and behavioral factors will determine the movement of the stock market in the next few months. Off-market liquidity has not yet chosen another market and is waiting for the end of the government-parliament budget dispute Until these two powers reach a consensus on the future of the country’s economy.
*** Parliament is concerned about creating debt for the future government
The parliament is worried about creating debt for the future government, and the Rouhani government is also looking to reorganize economic indicators such as exchange rates, inflation, etc., and is trying to end the second term with good memories. A further fall in the dollar is possible only in the long run, following positive political developments, for which no data has been released so far, and experience has shown that negotiations are long, with whispers of a major economic turnaround in China. Which can change the equations in the future.
*** Determining the stock market and budget
It seems that the stock market and the budget will be assigned at the same time. Therefore, one can not look for global prices and company reports. However, the resignation of Dr. Qalibaf and its acceptance by the Supreme Council of the Stock Exchange and the appointment of two weeks to appoint a successor indicate certain events in the country’s politics and economy.
*** The way to reconcile parliament and government
We have to wait for the reconciliation of the parliament and the government, which will probably be done soon with the approval of the budget. As far as Artan Press analysis team studies show, the parliament insists that the volume of sales and transfer of shares will increase significantly next year and the government will reduce its reliance on oil. If the budget is approved with these provisions, we will have to wait for the reaction of the Central Bank in changing the monetary and financial laws in favor of the stock exchange.
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