Recently, President Hassan Rouhani talked about the 15,000 Toman dollar, which has attracted the attention of many people to this rate. It is a problem that the government can bring the price of the currency into the 15,000 Toman channel in the last months of its term. Analysts are skeptical and do not consider this action possible in the current situation. This issue became an excuse to examine the dollar at the rate of 15 thousand tomans and the possibility of achieving this rate. We recommend that you do not miss this note from Artan Press.
*** Continuation of fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate
Yesterday, the dollar started the initial trading with a slight decrease in price, but in the middle of the day, it increased by 200 tomans and reached 23,600 tomans; A look at the trend of the American currency shows that since last Thursday, its fluctuation has not been more than 300 Tomans. And this volume of fluctuations shows that the market and dollar traders have not reacted emotionally to the president’s exchange rate of 15 thousand tomans, and the market has not witnessed fluctuations and sometimes price drops. One reason why the market does not believe in the dollar rate of 15 thousand tomans is the calm and low fluctuations in dollar transactions this week.
*** Outlook for $ 15,000
Foreign exchange market analysts believe that due to the decrease in the volume of purchases compared to last week, inflation expectations have been emptied from the market and the exchange rate is likely to decrease again in the coming days. But we will not see prices fall in the foreign exchange market and move towards the dollar of 15 thousand tomans, at least in the short term. Examination of price trends shows that the selling price of the dollar in the national exchange without changing the price was announced at 22970 Tomans, which shows that the total price change until the end of the trading day shows an increase of 540 Tomans in the national exchange rate.
*** Convergence of dollar and euro exchange rates
Since the price of the dollar and the euro are correlated. The selling price of Euro was also announced with a decrease of 50 Tomans for the first time to 27900 Tomans, which shows a greater bubble in the rates of Euro compared to the dollar. This currency has experienced a total decrease of 50 Tomans in the previous day.
*** Gold causes the dollar to fall in the open market
Factors that strengthen or decrease the price of the dollar in the world market and, consequently, the Iranian market is the discussion of the price of gold, especially the global ounce. The global ounce has decreased by about $ 12 compared to the previous day and has reached $ 1852, and the exchange rate has dropped by almost 400 Tomans, which has caused the price of gold and currency in the country to decrease simultaneously. It is not possible for the dollar at the moment, let alone $ 15,000. A move towards these rates will be achieved if there is news of a final agreement between the Biden government and the Iranian government.
*** Hard days of American banknotes
The value of the dollar reached one of its lowest levels in several years in 2020 against many major currencies, and with Janet Yellen taking office as US Treasury Secretary, the question is how long the dollar will continue to decline. . If the exchange rate in the Forex exchange is accompanied by a decline and on the other hand the agreements between Iran and the United States end in good directions, the dollar can be stabilized at 15 tomans. But in the current situation and without monitoring US political behavior, the dollar can not be 15 thousand. Tuman was considered possible in the open market.
*** The market is waiting for a further decline in the exchange rate
The question may be asked why the dollar has weakened in all international markets? Simply put, the main reason for the fall of the dollar was that it was not possible to keep the price of the dollar at the previous level, which was very high in terms of the market. The dollar still seems to be priced higher than it really is in the market, so analysts predict that we will have to wait for a further devaluation against major currencies. If the global currency and ounce market continues to decline, gold and coin prices can be expected to fall by the end of the week.
*** An optimistic view of $ 15,000
According to the head of Iran’s customs and under the pretext of World Customs Day, during the first 10 months of this year, 122 million tons of goods worth about $ 59 billion were exchanged between Iran and various countries. This issue has a clear message to the United States and sanctions. Continuing this trend in the long run can settle Iran’s foreign debts and positively balance Iran’s trade balance. This issue can optimistically pave the way for $ 15,000. In the open market, however, we reiterate that this issue has many prerequisites and special attention should be paid to external factors and the main actors in this issue.
*** The historic fall in coin prices caused the dollar to fall
One of the topics that can show the perspective of Iran’s financial and foreign exchange markets is the discussion of parallel assets and parallel markets of the dollar and their price situation. January 99 was a historic day for coin and dollar speculators, as they lost much of the value of their assets; In the tenth month of 1999, the coin recorded a 14% drop in price and at some point even experienced fluctuations below the heavy support of 10 million Tomans.
*** The thrill of the currency market
The last time a coin inflicted such a loss on its holders was 37 months ago; Where in December 1997 it lost more than 15% of its value. The dollar also recorded a similar decline in January, with a negative return of 13.5 percent, unprecedented since the third month of the fall of 1997. Perhaps these issues have caused the word $ 15,000 to be formed in the market. But it should be noted that the Iranian market is affected by excitement at some point in time. $ 15,000 is also one of these excitements in the opposite direction of the upward excitement of the market. From the US election, there was talk of $ 50,000 in some quarters.
*** Rise of the dollar to continue the decline
What is clear in the current situation is that the dollar is rapidly declining. On Tuesday, the American banknote lost 450 tomans of its value and reached the price of 23,150 tomans. These price fluctuations are acceptable in the current situation, but it is far from the president’s words about achieving a rate of 15 thousand tomans for the dollar.
*** Rouhani refers to 15 thousand tomans
But the question is, why is the dollar so rapidly declining? The reason for the drop in prices was new news that was transmitted to the foreign exchange market. On Monday afternoon, some news outlets, citing Pentagon sources, claimed that the Biden administration would launch an initiative for direct talks with Tehran through European mediation; This news was enough to increase sales in the foreign exchange market and the price to decline rapidly.
Also on Tuesday, a government spokesman sent a new signal to the market, saying, “These days, the government is trying to lower the exchange rate and bring it to the real price.” In some sections, Rouhani had talked about the dollar of 15 thousand tomans, and these signals were enough to imagine a decrease in the dollar rate for yesterday.
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