The global steel market has not had a good start to the new year, and there are many reasons for this. It can be said that the reduction of political risks due to the US-China trade war and the beginning of a joint global dialogue in the Biden administration with the Chinese is the beginning of calm and low-tension days in the economic environment. Mineral and metal exchanges. In this memo, we will deal with all the main factors and subjects related to the fall in global steel prices. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Corona was the main cause of falling prices last year
The world before and after Corona is not really comparable. Many people and economies have been affected by this, and large industries around the world have gone bankrupt. The National Labor Organization’s report on the state of global business and employment is shocking. According to these reports, the world lost four times more jobs last year than during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. This issue has also affected the global steel market and we are witnessing that the boom has not yet returned to the steel markets and we are witnessing a drop in prices for all global steel products with the withdrawal of demand.
*** Economic indicators of the industry
Global labor markets were virtually disrupted in 2020, and many steel mills and upstream steel mines closed. Last year, 8.8 percent of global working hours were lost compared to the last quarter of 2019, which is equivalent to more than a quarter of a billion full-time jobs. Reducing global working hours includes reduced working hours as well as job losses. Employment loss in 2020 has reached unprecedented levels, affecting 114 million people. Women and youth have suffered the most in the meantime.
*** Metal Bulletin reports on falling steel prices
Metal Bulletin reports all indicate a decline in global steel markets. This international publication is practically a mirror of the world situation of steel in the world. A review of the latest Metal Bulletin report on steel prices in global markets shows that the prices of most steel products in the world have been relatively relative in recent days. The price of CIS FOB Black Sea export billet fell $ 8 to $ 599 per ton, but the price of CIS rebar, slabs and hot and cold sheet exports has not changed in the latest Metal Bulletin report.
*** Price drop in all global steel markets
Some analysts may be of the opinion that prices have dropped significantly only in the slab and sheet group, while longer sections have not been in a better position than the sheet. East Asian rebar cfr delivery to major ports fell $ 2.5 to $ 600 per tonne, but there was no change in Iran’s export billet and slab rates. And this is the reason why analysts are warming up. But it should be noted that Iranian prices have experienced a decline in the past three months, and in practice, with the increase in the rial against the dollar, there has been a resistance to reduce prices.
*** The downside of falling global steel prices
Metal Bulletin has clearly observed the decline in prices in the global steel market and has practically portrayed this decline well. At the same time, the price of each ton of hot-rolled sheet imported to Turkey by CFR in Turkish ports decreased by $ 7.5 to an average of $ 765, and the price of cold-rolled sheet imported by Turkey to CFR in Turkish ports decreased by $ 2.5 to $ 822.5 per ton. Is.
*** Falling prices in the mineral market
The slump in the global steel market has made it difficult for the upper echelons of the steel chain, and mineral products and products have fallen in price. There are daily reports of high depot volumes in global markets, which has led to high fragility of prices in the mining market. The difference between the cost of steel production and the price of ingots in China has reached about 600 yuan, which is a very large number and will put a lot of risk on activists in this field.
*** There is no chance for prices to rise
At present, the billet is not able to cross the 3,800 yuan mark, and looking at global markets, it seems unlikely that the bullion will be able to grow further in the Chinese domestic market. Therefore, falling raw material prices is one of the most important options on the market. In fact, the pressure of the production sector is more than the demand, and this pressure from the supply side has caused the world steel prices to take a downward path with a more stable trend.
*** The beginning of the downturn in the Russian market
The Russian market in the last two months did not follow the general path of world steel trade and had taken the path of ascent and stability in these two months. But over time, this market also felt threatened and steel investors from the bubble created in The price of Russian steel was feared and the downward trend in this country has started a few days ago. In this regard, the price of hot rolled sheets in the domestic market and Russian exports has fallen. Declining purchasing power and falling global markets also pushed down prices in Russia. The average price of Russian hot-rolled sheet exports has dropped by $ 20, from $ 745 to $ 760 per tonne FOB. Meanwhile, since mid-November, the price of Russian hot-rolled sheets has been on the rise.
*** Chinese desire for falling global scrap prices
But the scrap market is a unique world in global steel trading. Scrap has always been of interest to large steel investors due to its cost-effectiveness in steel ingot production. In the current situation, the drop in the price of Japanese export scrap, which has dropped to $ 26, has encouraged the Chinese to import more scrap. Apparently the price Japanese companies are approaching the price of scrap in the Chinese domestic market. The price of imported scrap in China dropped $ 38 a week to $ 452 per tonne CFR. Some have asked for $ 445 per tonne CFR, and suppliers believe the deal could be as high as $ 450.
*** Why did global steel fall?
But the main question that has arisen for the effect of market participants is why the global steel market entered this recession and falling prices? In response, it should be said that former US President Donald Trump during his presidency imposed high tariffs on steel imports from China and a number of European countries, and the purpose of this plan was to protect the US steel industry. The policy was hailed as the start of a trade war in the industrialized world, and was widely criticized by World Trade Organization officials and industry activists, and was one of the most controversial policies of Trump’s presidency.
*** Biden government’s link to falling global steel prices
Now, with the end of Trump’s presidency, the issue has been raised as to whether Trump’s policies on steel tariffs should be repealed or repealed. Some believe that Biden will abolish these tariffs, and in fact the world market will be accompanied by a sharp drop in prices with this policy, and in practice, many American steel industries will face heavy losses. Others believe that Biden will Trump’s policies on steel tariffs will continue, and in practice the market is waiting to receive signals in this regard.
In the current situation, there is a surplus of steel production in China and other countries due to heavy US trade tariffs, and many hope that the cancellation of Trump’s executive orders on steel trade tariffs will cause a huge flood of demand in the global market and prices from It will bring down what is now. Therefore, an important factor in reducing demand is the confusion of global traders.
*** Reducing the price of scrap in Japan
As global markets continue to stagnate, Japan’s Tokyo Steel plant has continued to lower its demand for scrap from the domestic market. In fact, the price has dropped 4 times in the last two weeks. Purchase scrap is cheaper up to $ 19 and Class 2 heavy scrap is around $ 347. Japan’s export scrap prices have been declining and demand has fallen, so supply to the domestic market has risen. On the other hand, due to the sharp rise in prices in December, more price corrections have been estimated.
این مطلب بدون برچسب می باشد.