Types of possible scenarios for the total stock index - آرتان پرس | مرجع رسمی اطلاع رسانی فولاد | آرتان پرس | مرجع رسمی اطلاع رسانی فولاد

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Types of possible scenarios for the total stock index

شناسه : 40450 ۳۰ بهمن ۱۳۹۹ - ۱۳:۴۴
The Tehran Stock Exchange has experienced a downward trend in recent days, and unfortunately the wave of mistrust among shareholders has intensified. In the current situation, it is not possible to have a perspective on the profitability of the stock market, and there are many reasons for that, which are mentioned in this memo.

Iran Stock Exchange continues its path in a blind way and we are practically witnessing a situation where there is no fundamental and technical analysis in the market and the profitability of this market has been accompanied by doubts. People who have entered this market since mid-summer They are witnessing the worst trading experiences in their lives. In the following, we will evaluate the outlook of the entire stock index. Please be with Artan Press.


*** Loss of 37 thousand units of the total stock index

The Tehran Stock Exchange had a very disappointing first week for shareholders. The fall of 37,000 units of the stock index in yesterday’s trading covered many symbols in different groups with red. The total index of the stock exchange fell by 37,000 units at the end of trading and reached 1,135,000 units. The total weighted index also reached 7029 negative units and the value of transactions decreased by 7097 billion Tomans and in all these data, many sensitive resistances have been broken.


*** Outlook for the entire stock index

Approaching the index of one million tomans, for which there is a very strong resistance and less analysts imagine the index to enter this channel, there is a big gap of up to seven hundred thousand, and the entry of the stock exchange into this channel is practically the finish line for real investment. It has been on the stock market for a long time. The value of market shares is much higher than the current trading figures. Currently, the market excitement, the uncertain future of the stock market and the lack of legal support for the valuable stocks in the market have caused the stock market to enter this unhealthy and radical situation.


*** Decline of the purchase index in Tehran Stock Exchange

Experts believe that purchases have fallen sharply. The total index of Tehran Stock Exchange, today and so far together or more than 29,200 negative units, after breaking the support boundaries one after another, has reached the approximate limit of 1,140,000 units.


*** The most evaluated Tehran Stock Exchange

But it is not bad to take a look at the most important Iranian stock exchanges in the current unhealthy conditions. The symbols of Ghazar, Famli, Khasapa, Foolad, Klond, Sita and Shepna had the most impact on the index, and the most popular symbols were Shasta, Khasapa, Khodro, Shepna, Vatjarat, Wolpars and Khagstar.

The symbols of Aria, Hormoz, Koghar, Saba, Zob, Shagovia and Zagros were the most influential symbols in the total OTC index. Among them, the symbols of Sepidar, Vespehr, Kazgal, Klor, Voupoya, Pizd and Aria also had the most transactions. Saturday’s market was in a situation where traders had very little hope of improving the market, and at the same time reduced the issue of purchases sharply.


*** Losses in the total OTC index

The total OTC index at the end of yesterday’s trading fell by 294 units to 17,139 units. Hence, we saw that the volume of transactions had decreased and the outflow of capital continues in the market. Earlier, traders believed that despite the support range of 1.2 million units, there is a possibility of a return to the market, but this did not happen. Because there is no seriousness on the part of the big players in the stock market to profit the shareholders. The government also does not have the financial capacity to support the market in the current situation and in the last months of the government. Therefore, it seems unlikely that any special action will be taken in this government to support this market.


*** Support range of the total stock index

The market still has two support areas of 1.1 million and one million, and it remains to be seen how the overall index will react to these areas. However, some traders still believe that it is possible to change the flow in the market, and yet some believe that the recession may deepen by rejecting the general budget in the stock market and the stock market decline will continue.


*** Insignificance of shareholders to positive market factors

Despite the expectations, we witnessed the unresponsiveness of shareholders to important and positive factors on the stock market. Among these cases were eight resolutions of the board of directors of the stock exchange organization yesterday, which will be examined in today’s meeting of the Supreme Council of the stock exchange in order to support the stock market. But unfortunately the market did not pay attention to it. Global markets also ended the week trading in favorable conditions and we saw a rise in commodity prices. These are just some of the reasons why we have stated that the stock market is not moving forward based on fundamental and technical analysis in the current situation, and this ominous shadow will weigh on the market until trust is restored.


*** Evaluate the value of stock exchanges

The value of small stock exchange transactions yesterday was 6 thousand and 179 billion tomans, which has decreased significantly. If this continues, the thinking of a recessionary atmosphere in the stock market will be strengthened again. Legal entities today made a net purchase of 1,620 billion tomans. “Basic metals and petroleum products” were the two groups with the highest purchases by this group of shareholders. In contrast, the realists paid little attention to the “insurance and pension fund” group.


*** Supply and demand analysis on Saturday

Of the 338 symbols traded on the stock exchange, the closing price was 15.3% positive and 81.1% negative. 31 symbols (9.1%) formed a purchase queue worth 175 billion Tomans and 211 symbols (62.4%) formed a sales queue worth 1517 billion Tomans. In OTC trades, out of 130 symbols traded, the closing price was 20% of the positive symbols and 80% of the negative symbols. 16 symbols (12.3%) had a purchase queue worth 580 billion Tomans and 71 symbols (54.6%) had a sales queue worth 643 billion Tomans.

In the OTC market, out of 112 symbols traded, the closing price was 34.8% of the symbols positive and 64.2% of the symbols negative. 31 symbols (27.6%) purchase queue worth 112 billion Tomans and 66 symbols (59%) had a sales queue worth 710 billion tomans. The ranking of the returns of different markets in the week ending February 6, 2017, showed that the bank deposit interest rate was leading with a return of 0.29% and the price of other assets decreased in other markets!


*** Return of parallel markets of Iran Stock Exchange

The rating of returns of different markets in the week ending February 6, 2017, showed the lead of bank deposit interest with a return of 0.29% and a decrease in the price of other assets in other markets!

The return of the overall index below the support level of 1.2 million units, disappointed the hopes a bit. If the current trend continues, the floor of 1 million to 1 million 50 thousand units will be the most important support areas of the market. After the stock market, gold and coins experienced the largest price declines in the last seven days with 2.2 and 1/3 price reductions, respectively. The dollar and the euro, unlike coins and gold, rose slightly this week and calmed down slightly after the turmoil of the past two weeks.

The problem that can be deduced from the overall index and its fluctuations in the last three months is that it can not be expected to grow more than 200,000 units for the overall index in the most optimistic case for the stock market by the end of the year. To make policies for the stock market and gain part of the community’s trust, and in this way will bring many difficulties and challenges. What is clear is that in the current market conditions there are no acceptable conditions for profitability and many shareholders do not look at their portfolios and the offers are more than the legal ones. With this market, a clear outlook is inconceivable


Artan Press

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