Panzi game in the global economy and its lessons for the steel industry - آرتان پرس | مرجع رسمی اطلاع رسانی فولاد | آرتان پرس | مرجع رسمی اطلاع رسانی فولاد

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Panzi game in the global economy and its lessons for the steel industry

شناسه : 40812 ۳۰ بهمن ۱۳۹۹ - ۱۳:۴۲
Global financial markets are at risk and various factors such as corruption and high interest rates threaten the capital of people around the world. In such circumstances, one should not enter markets that promise zero percent risk, and practically entering these markets can lead to irreparable conditions for the investor.

The world economy is at a peak in terms of risk calculation in the last ten years. This is why many stray capital in the world do not dare to choose the path of investment and create the conditions for Panzi to play in the international economy. In the following, we will refer to the outlook for the general state of the world economy. We suggest you do not miss this article from Artan Press.


*** Rising risk of global financial markets

As you know, financial markets are risky and it is better for investors to do the same among all financial markets, as they do in a financial market such as the stock market, and part of the capital in this crypto market. And international stocks in stock markets always talk about whether or not there is a market bubble or a positive or negative stock bubble.


*** The onset of positive inflation in the world’s major economies

An issue that can be seen in all the economies of the world, even the economies of the United States and Europe, is the slow movement towards positive inflation. And this is due to the adoption of expansionary policies by governments to control the economic damage caused by the corona. Inflation along with cheap money (loans with lower interest rates than the market) can lead to overvaluation of assets by encouraging people to invest (due to higher returns than cheap interest rates). At this time, investors are no longer looking for a reasonable value for the stock.


*** Preparations for the Panzi Game in International Economics

There are situations where people are looking to invest in routes that provide maximum returns at the lowest cost. But there are heavy and deadly traps along the way. The stage that economist Heiman Minsky calls the Ponzi phase. At this point, everyone is looking to sell the stock at a higher price. At this stage, the party ends with the slightest interruption in the distribution of cheap money.


*** The interests of governments in the game of Panzi

Now the story begins with the fact that governments, by creating this game, practically control some of the liquidity, and sometimes change the way of playing by distributing rents in favor of some actors. It is a bit difficult to know when the game will end (like what happened in the Iranian stock market). The question of when the distribution of cheap money will end and when the market will fall is a question that must always be asked.


*** Low bond yields

In the current situation, the high cost of bonds in the world financial markets is at a higher level than other competitors, and of course this issue has its pros and cons. Opponents of this statement believe that the high cost of bonds justifies paying higher prices for stocks. This opposition has been expressed to the point that some analysts believe that there is no bubble in the stock market.


*** But what if interest rates are set in the US

This is further explained by looking at the US economy. The US economy is in a situation where it has to decide on interest rates. And changes in interest rates will have a direct impact on all financial and industrial markets. In the current situation, the world’s largest economists believe that in the current situation, one can not expect profitability from bonds, and even the US financial markets and stock exchanges have been evaluated in more appropriate conditions than the bond market.


*** The emergence of heavy financial corruption in the world

We started the discussion by raising investment risks. One of the biggest economic risks in the world has become the issue of heavy financial corruption and money laundering. Thanks to technology and digital currencies, the traditional routes of financial exchange have changed, and unfortunately we are witnessing heavy scams worldwide.


*** World banks enter the money laundering case

Last week, important news broke that anti-corruption activists around the world were deeply concerned. The news was about the leak of documents called FinCEN documents, which revealed the auxiliary role of several powerful banks in the movement of large sums of money by fraudsters; Big money in the millions and billions of dollars and much bigger than the bribes and embezzlements that come to mind when corruption is mentioned.

The Finnson documents show that a number of fraudsters who acted through the Panzi method or trick transferred the money of small investors who had invested in the scheme from HSBC Bank accounts in the United States to their own accounts at the bank’s Hong Kong branch.


*** US interest rate outlook

Towards the end of the Obama administration, US real interest rates were negative. With Trump’s victory, the rate became positive and increased for two years. During 2019, this rate decreased and with the corona epidemic in China, the US real interest rate dropped to zero. When the corona arrived in the United States, the rate dropped to minus 5 percent. This rate is usually negative during a recession. In recent days, the US real interest rate has reached -25.2%. Real interest rates reflect the risk and growth of a country’s economy, and this number shows that the government should be on the edge of the monetary economy and in difficult circumstances should control the management of the country’s economy.


*** The relationship between the global gold rate and US interest rates

Because gold neither grows nor wears out, its real interest rate is zero. But zero real interest in gold does not mean that the price of gold will rise only with inflation. When the real interest rate of the economy becomes negative, gold has a higher interest rate and therefore becomes more valuable; And with higher maturity, it is traded. So low interest rates are good for some countries They have a lot of gold and in the economic history of countries such as the United Kingdom and Switzerland are in the form of these countries.


*** Convergence of the global gold rate with the US dollar

Of course, the world price of gold also rises with the inflation of the dollar. But because US inflation is low, the effect of US real interest rate fluctuations on the price of gold is more pronounced. This means that anyone who wants to predict the world price of gold must predict the real US interest rate. If US interest rates go up, many Americans will become more indebted and will actually see growing uncertainties in the financial calculations of the largest economy. We will be the world. Therefore, we will see a serious increase in the price of gold.


*** World economics lessons for Iranian steel

The actors of the country’s steel market should learn the situation of the capital market as a lesson for themselves and avoid the emotional sit-ins of this market as much as possible. It is enough to remove the dollar support from the base exchange rate and the domestic steel market Prices in the commodity exchange should be drastically reduced and there should be practically no purchases in the commodity exchange, especially in the steel sector.

In the current situation, it is in everyone’s interest to avoid emotional behavior in the Iranian Commodity Exchange. Purchases should be only for inventory renewal and in accordance with the real output of the consumer market, in fact, the presence of micro-activists in the current conditions of the country’s steel market is like a hot seat game or a panzi game; It is not clear when and where this dollar market will eventually collapse and cause irreparable damage to all steel market stakeholders.


*** Analysts’ suggestion for the stability of Iran’s financial markets

We do not offer monitoring and passivity in the steel market and the Iranian stock exchange in general. We mean moving towards market equilibrium. Neither surplus buying nor empty presence in the daily activities of the market can be a unique solution for the crisis-stricken conditions of the Iranian stock market. Otherwise, wet and dry will burn together. Because according to the analysis of the world’s major economies and the impact of the stock market and prices in the Iranian market, the conditions of the Iranian stock market are not ready for fundamental changes.

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