Following the volatility of the stock market, we expected the market to be positive, at least in the form of short-term housing, by the end of the year, and this would act as a stimulus in the market. Unfortunately, heavy sales queues and capital entrapment in At the end of the year, the stock market frightened shareholders. Meanwhile, shares related to government securities are traded at good prices, and in practice, in an atmosphere away from the inflammation of other symbols on the stock exchange , the trend continues.
*** Evaluate the volume of government securities in stock exchange transactions
In order to understand the role of bonds in the Tehran Stock Exchange, it is better to first refer to the market volume of this sector in the stock exchange. In the first 10 months of this year, 165 thousand 219 billion and 500 million Tomans worth of securities were issued in the capital market, during which 141 thousand 19 billion and 500 million Tomans were the share of the government and state-owned companies. It is worth mentioning that the government and state-owned companies issued 88,174 billion and 200 million tomans worth of securities last year.
*** Charge of compensating the budget deficit through the stock exchange
But what is the point of the accusation against the government? The government has come under fire from stock market activists at the end of the year for issuing government bonds. The government is in a situation to cover its budget deficit, which estimates indicate that this institution needs to sell 4,000 billion tomans of bonds per week. However, these securities were not very well received in the stock market in mid-February, and the government took an orderly step in the stock market equations.
*** Government planning for the sale of government securities
The government actually launched a market for the initial public offering of bonds in June of this year, coinciding with the best days in the history of the Iranian Stock Exchange, and banks and investment institutions played a leading role in supporting these bonds. The trend of buying and selling bonds will continue steadily until the end of the year. Minimum receipts and virtually no purchases for securities.
*** The government’s insistence on making government securities attractive
The government, however, was still optimistic about the sale of government bonds. Therefore, the process of buying and selling it on a weekly basis, when each of these bonds is known at maturity and with a certain interest rate, was repurchased by the government and paid to the banks. Or return on capital institutions. This measure was not inherently different from the previous conditions. Only the government agreed to reduce the shareholder costs and risk rate.
*** The reason for the government’s insistence on selling government bonds
It should not be forgotten that all this policy was moving in a certain direction and it was nothing but compensating the budget deficit. Because the government is the seller of the bonds, it can use the proceeds from the sale of the bonds to make up for its budget deficit. The government was deeply committed to this scenario and still sees one of its non-inflationary ways to compensate for the budget deficit. In the bonds offered every week, two important features are always the reason for buying and selling. Interest rate and maturity date.
*** Heavy government support for government securities transactions
But what is the perspective and process by which stocks related to government bonds are sold to the public? Has the government agreed to raise shareholder interest rates definitively under certain circumstances? In the bonds offered, the two bonds “Arad 64” and “Arad 70” had a two-year maturity date, and the two bonds “Arad 60” and “Arad 65” had a maturity date of three years. For buyers, a lower maturity date or a higher interest rate is an attractive factor for buying bonds. Despite all these attractive factors, the government still did not get the benefit it expected from this market, and this has not yet been achieved.
*** The range of asymptotes in the service of government securities
The government was forced to change the rules of the game a little. It was a change in the trading structure of the stock exchange and the decision was made to approve the asymmetric range of the stock exchange to support the markets. At first, the shareholders reacted positively to this issue, but after a while, the market returned to its original path, and in the current situation, we see that the market is only green in buying and selling government bonds, and other symbols are the compensation for the range of asymmetries and They give rise to the fear created by the confinement of capital in the stock market.
*** The government seeks to use non-inflationary approaches
The important point is that the use of non-inflationary methods to compensate for the budget deficit and support the stock market does not fit in one frame. The government must know its task clearly and transparently and plan for it. . As long as the government wants to increase the trading volume of the stock market to government shares and government securities, it will see a further decline in other shares and the disappearance of the assets of small stock exchange activists who have accepted the most losses these days. To provide for the growth of small stocks and to support established government stocks on which it has not invested.
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