As we announced in the analysis of the oil market in recent days. The world oil and petrochemical markets are struggling to return to normal, and we are witnessing a positive and significant growth in world oil prices in all markets, and oil is expected to reach prices close to $ 100. These conditions can lead to significant economic prosperity for oil-exporting countries. Despite sanctions over the past three and a half months, Iran has had an acceptable export performance in oil sales.
*** Attractive oil deals in international markets
Early Brent and North Sea oil traded at attractive prices. But as time went on and demand grew, all world markets began to rise, and to this day, demand has been rising for two weeks and oil markets are looking for tolerant traders. The highest profit margins are in the market. Many countries have begun the process of vaccination, and in practice industrial economies are beginning to resume and normalize life. For this reason, the rising trend of oil prices will continue. In the current situation, there is no obstacle to increasing the prices of oil markets and other derivatives.
*** Growth of polymers in the shadow of oil
Due to the high demand for polymer products, crude oil sales percentages are reported to be growing in all markets, and in fact, China is the main driver of the imported markets and the major buyer of the countries’ oil. Although Chinese New Year holidays are not over yet and industrial businesses have not fully launched their production lines, demand in the country is still positive. Changes in the prices of petrochemical and polymer products are inevitable. This is true in all world markets, and we anticipate that stocks such as refining stocks or stocks such as refinery I, which is itself an oil portfolio, will be fundamentally good in the coming months. .
*** Predict inflation in energy-dependent markets
With rising oil prices, global markets are likely to see short-term inflation, as oil is part of the downstream chain of all markets, and rising prices have a strong impact on the cost of other markets. Therefore, price growth in secondary markets will not be unexpected. Economic actors in this field should be aware that in the last two weeks, demand has exceeded supply, the output of which has been competition for purchase. It is enough to look at the Iranian energy exchange and see that oil prices in the energy exchange have been accompanied by positive emotions. In the current situation, with the high price of the dollar, it is very attractive and tempting to enter the remaining markets such as oil.
*** US oil price assessment after the unprecedented cold
The Brent crude fell 38 cents to $ 64.99 a barrel and the WTI index fell 55 cents to $ 61.12 a barrel. The final price of Brent crude index on Tuesday (March 5) was $ 65.37 and the price of the US WT index was $ 61.67.
*** Why did US oil prices fall?
Oil prices fell temporarily as industrial data showed US crude stockpiles rose unexpectedly last week as severe frosts in the southern US states reduced demand for refineries that were forced to close. The big question is, how fast is the US oil supply improving? Oil supply is expected to recover faster than refineries, and supply will exceed demand in the next few weeks. This will have a negative effect on the market.
*** Target oil for $ 100
Oil has listed tags above $ 90 on global energy exchanges and will certainly reach $ 100, provided that a pandemic with the same slope is controlled worldwide. Brent oil, although slightly lower from the daily level of $ 66.3, is still the highest price since December 2019 at $ 65.97. The rise was followed by a weakening dollar index and continued decline in Texas oil production following unprecedented frosts in the state. But US oil buying rates, like those of other oil-producing countries, remained positive.
*** Goldman Sachs predicts the future of the world oil market
In a recent report, Goldman Sachs predicts that global oil prices will reach more than $ 75 a barrel by the end of 2021. According to Bloomberg, analysts at Goldman Sachs said oil prices are faster than previously thought. It could face a significant increase, mainly due to the growing global demand for energy and the failure of OPEC Plus, the shale industry and Iran to meet market demand. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that global oil consumption will reach pre-corona levels by the end of July and that large producing countries will not be able to meet market demand quickly.
*** Why is world oil constantly rising in price?
A combination of speeding up the vaccination process, government stimulus and continued discipline in economic stimulus, especially among OPEC Plus members and US shale producers, has recently pushed up oil prices, so much so that A number of banks have changed their oil price forecasts upwards, and in the range of $ 100 per barrel, there is a medium-term analysis.
The stimulus for the rapid growth of prices in the world oil market was the unprecedented cold of the United States and the rising bargaining power of oil sellers around the world. On the other hand, a large part of oil Production in the United States has shifted to energy and heating, virtually out of global markets, and a shortage of US oil supply has doubled oil prices.
*** Impact of oil news on iron and steel prices
Usually, as oil prices rise, over time we will see price supersycles in oil-dependent markets, including equivalents and metals and steel. As the cost of the factory rises, the prices of iron and steel production bases are likely to rise. This price increase could lead to cross-sectional recessions in the iron and steel markets and reduced transactions. They will refuse transactions for now.
*** Motel Bulletin analysis of the complexity of the world oil market
Metal Bulletin stated in a short analysis that the growth of steel prices will affect the world steel and iron markets in a cross-sectional manner. The cost of steel is about 30 percent dependent on energy, of which more than half depends on the price of oil. Therefore, the growth of world steel prices will be undeniable. Commodity price drivers, such as inflation due to injecting money, the devaluation of the dollar, injecting stimulus packages and economic stimulus, new US policies on infrastructure investment, and increased investment in green and renewable energy, still make prices unpredictable in recent months. Will lead.
*** Realistic outlook on world oil prices
It is important to note that if there is no corona pandemic in the world and countries can control the process of controlling coronary heart disease and on the other hand the disaster and energy risks in the United States are reduced, the attractiveness of the oil market will be reduced. Until the next month, bright days are waiting for the oil-dependent markets that Iran should make the most of these conditions. It is likely that the rise in prices will be heavier than the recession in the commodity market, and oil prices will certainly support this trend in the coming months.
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