The strength of steel markets at the end of the year has been accompanied by ambiguity in some closing rates and ups and downs for price jumps in the coming year. For example, the price of steel sheets in the domestic market is a few months, which unfortunately due to shortage and inequality of supply and demand and monopoly In production, and the emergence of rents in the middle chains, it has always been unfair at the peak and often, even in comparison with export rates, or the ribbed rebar market has experienced heavy price fluctuations. This became an excuse to analyze the ambiguities of the steel market in the price sector. Please be with Artan Press.
*** Growing ambiguities in the ribbed rebar market
For some time now, Artan Press analysts’ observations of the steel market have focused on the ribbed rebar sector. This product has undergone heavy price changes in recent months and its inflammation has not been reduced yet. The conditions of the ribbed rebar market these days again show the price gap between the official billboards of some factories and the actual sales rates offered by some traders.
*** Heavy gap in official price and ribbed rebar market
The reasons for this have been discussed in detail before, and we will suffice to mention that the gap between the official rate announced by some climbing factories and the rate offered by the banker for the same product has increased significantly. For example, the factory price is 12,550 to 12,600 tomans, including the value-added goods, while the banker is the seller of the same product, 12,250 to 12,300. With this situation, it seems that some official rates are not very practical these days. The proposed market floor price offer for this product today is mainly in the price range around 12,250 to 12,350 official and subsidized prices listed by the government is twenty percent different.
*** Price inflammation on hot steel sheet
The issue of price inflammation does not end with the price of ribbed rebar alone. Expectations of hot-rolled hot-rolled sheet manufacturers (mainly 2 miles thick) due to the possibility of eliminating the import tariff for sheets with a thickness of less than 5 mm and the import of this product; Apparently, in order to break the monopoly and increase the volume of domestic supply in order to satisfy the needs of the sub-industries, in order to reduce or adjust the price of this product in the domestic market is seen.
*** Cold welcome of hot steel sheet
In the past week, there has been a very cold reception of the supply of hot rolled sheet B products of various factories in the Commodity Exchange; Apparently, the market participants are waiting for the assignment of what they have heard about imported sheets. The average exchange rate of the half dollar and the exchange rate of the dollar exchange office is currently around 24500 Tomans, which is around 720 to 730 USD / ton FOB, considering the rate of hot-rolled sheets of China and CIS, and considering at least about 5% of the total import cost. We will reach a price equivalent to about 18,000 to 18,500 Tomans per kilogram of imported hot-rolled sheet B. Now, no matter how much the dollar rate decreases in accordance with the current expectations of the society, this rate will definitely decrease.
*** The role of the dollar in the ambiguities of the steel market
Some expectations regarding the depreciation of the dollar; If the openings continue in the direction of Iran’s financial resources; A decrease of up to 20 to 22 thousand Tomans has been mentioned, in which case it will be possible to reduce the price of imported sheets up to 15,500 to 16,500 Tomans. This will be the market.
*** Assessing the ambiguities of the steel market in the section of long steel sections
Relying on the experiences gained from the market of this product, we must first go to the export rate of the rolling field in the border markets of the country; In fact, the key to the secrets of domestic steel prices in the field of long sections is now and’s apparently somehow connected to the final product rate in cross-border markets, which sells at least $ 100 to $ 130 a ton lower than other global market competitors. May be.
*** Rollers distance from official prices
The average gross margin of the digital rolling field is around 10%; And this margin for rolling stock active in export fields can be generalized up to 20% these days if you buy ingots on the base rate from the commodity exchange. In fact, this 10% difference is related to the VAT issue, which in the field of exports is considered as a double privilege of the roller coaster. And these elements, along with the resistance of raw material prices such as sponge iron prices or scrap iron prices, will further complicate the conditions for recognizing trends and market prospects, along with increasing annual wage rates and rising costs. It remains to be seen where the result will go.
*** Steel market prices forecast for the week
Given the base supply rate of the past few days, Isfahan Steel Ribbed Rebar seems to be most likely; The base rate of Wednesday’s supply of long steel sections on the Commodity Exchange, as last week, is based on a 100% coefficient of last week’s average trading rate; And for ribbed rebar, ie the same figure is 11,204 Tomans or around the same number; And also as a second result, it can be guessed that most likely the base rate of supply of ingots for Tuesday is around 10,470 Tomans. Of course, it is not certain, but it is likely to be so.
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