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Analysis and evaluations of the Iran-China agreement document

شناسه : 43531 ۱۰ فروردین ۱۴۰۰ - ۱۱:۳۶
Iran and China signed a trade and security agreement, which was widely reflected in Iran and abroad and created different orientations towards the issue. Opinions are also different in Iran, and in this analysis we will focus on the black and white of this trade agreement.
Analysis and evaluations of the Iran-China agreement document

Iran and China signed a trade and security agreement on Saturday in the form of a 25-year cooperation document, which has been widely reflected in the world and has been accompanied by different analyzes in Iran. In this note, we will examine the positive and negative aspects of this event. We ask you to be with Artan Press at the end.

*** Iran-China agreement; Start different analyzes

The signing of a trade and security agreement in the form of a strategic document between Iran and China is considered a challenge for the new US administration, and this issue has not been out of reach from the point of view of analysis sites such as Bloomberg. Tehran’s closer engagement with Beijing could help boost the country’s economy in the face of US sanctions, the analysis magazine wrote. China was our country’s first trading partner in 1399, with which we exchanged 30 million and 128 thousand tons of goods worth 18 billion and 715 million dollars. Therefore, perhaps this issue is an opportunity to revive Iran’s economy and Iran’s international trade.

*** Iran-China trade agreement signed for a quarter of a century

Iran and China on Saturday signed a wide-ranging trade and security agreement that calls for Chinese heavy investment in Iran over 25 years in exchange for cheap oil. A step that can reduce Iran’s international isolation. China agreed to invest $ 400 billion in Iran over 25 years in exchange for a steady supply of Iranian oil for its growing energy, under a broad economic and security agreement signed on Saturday.

*** The role of the Iran-China trade agreement and Chinese influence in the Middle East

The deal could deepen China’s influence in the Middle East and undermine US efforts to isolate Iran. However, it is not yet clear how much of the agreement will be implemented after the signing of the agreement, given that the US-Iran dispute over its nuclear program has not yet been resolved.

*** Americans are worried about the Iran-China agreement

The role of the United States in this event should not be deceived. US President Joe Biden has proposed resuming talks with Iran over the 2015 nuclear deal, which was canceled by former US President Donald Trump three years after it was signed. US officials say that while the United States is gradually lifting sanctions, both countries could take simultaneous steps to bring Iran into line with the terms of the agreement. But the interesting thing is that in the current situation, Iran does not refuse the demands of the Americans, because in the current situation, Iran is looking to the east.

*** American offer to negotiate with Iran

Iran has refused to do so, and China has backed it, calling for the United States to first revive the deal by lifting unilateral sanctions that have severely isolated Iran’s economy. China was one of five world powers that signed a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran along with the United States. Therefore, we should not ignore China’s role in Borjam’s future path.

*** China’s ambition to circumvent US sanctions

Foreign Ministers Javad Zarif and Wang Yi signed the agreement during a ceremony at the Foreign Ministry in Tehran on Saturday. It was a two-day trip by Mr. Wang that demonstrates China’s ambition to play a bigger role in a region that has been a strategic destination for the United States for decades. After the signing of this agreement, the Chinese behavior was aligned with US foreign policy, and in practice, the country has come out in support of Iran. “China’s strong commitment to protect Iran’s sovereignty and national dignity,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. It hurts to close and practically does not hinder the progress and friendship of countries.

*** Non-publication of details of Iran-China trade agreement

Iran did not disclose the details of the agreement before signing it, nor did the Chinese government provide details. But experts say the article is almost unchanged from an 18-page draft obtained by the New York Times last year. The draft will cover $ 400 billion in Chinese investment over the next 25 years in dozens of areas, including banking, telecommunications, ports, railways, healthcare and information technology. In return, China will receive a regular supply of Iranian oil – and, according to an Iranian official and an oil trader, at a significant discount. The draft also calls for deepening military cooperation, including joint training and exercises, joint research and weapons development, and information sharing.

*** China proposes trade security agreement

Iranian officials recently announced that the agreement with Beijing – first proposed by Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a 2016 visit – was a breakthrough. But inside Iran, there has been criticism that the government is in a position to give China too many concessions, effectively comparing the deal to failed agreements in Iranian history.

*** Reflecting the views of politicians on the conclusion of the agreement

Hossam al-Din Ashna, a senior adviser to President Rouhani, called the agreement “an example of successful diplomacy” on Twitter, saying it was a sign of Iran’s power “to participate in coalitions, not to remain isolated.” He called it “an important milestone for long-term cooperation after long negotiations and joint work.” Saeed

Khatibzadeh, a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry, called the document a “complete roadmap” for relations for the next quarter century.

*** The entry of countries in the region into the subject of trade agreements

Mr. Wang has previously visited the embassies and legal authorities of Iran, Saudi Arabia, as well as Turkey, and is scheduled to travel to the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Oman in the coming days. He said the region is at a crossroads and will help China resolve ongoing disputes, including over Iran’s nuclear program. China is even ready to host direct talks between Israelis and Palestinians, noting that US dominance in the region has hampered peace and development.

*** Contradictory views in Iran regarding the agreement

In Iran, opinions have differed on the expansion of Chinese influence. After Mr. Xi first proposed the strategic agreement during his visit in 2016, negotiations to complete it were slow at first. Iran had just reached an agreement with the United States and other countries to ease economic sanctions in exchange for severe restrictions on its nuclear research activities, and European companies were investing and offering joint ventures to develop fields. Gas and oil began to accumulate in Iran. These opportunities were lost after Mr. Trump pulled out of the deal and imposed new sanctions that Europeans feared could affect them, forcing Iran to look east.

*** The view of the supporters of the China-Iran agreement

Proponents of the deal say Iran must be pragmatic and recognize China’s growing economic prominence. “For a long time in our strategic alliance, we have put all our eggs in the Western basket and it has not worked,” said Ali Shariati, an economic analyst who until recently was a member of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce. “Changing policy and looking east will not be too bad.”

*** High risk agreement for the Chinese side

It should be noted that a large number of ambitious projects mentioned in this agreement are being realized. If the deal, like the nuclear deal, falls completely, Chinese companies could face secondary sanctions from Washington, an issue that has angered China in the past. The US prosecution of Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei includes allegations that the company traded safely with Iran in violation of the sanctions. Chinese officials have stressed that both Washington and Tehran must take steps to resolve the nuclear dispute.

*** Fear of China in order to conclude a trade agreement

Iran-China 25-year agreement; It is a strategic cooperation plan and a roadmap for the strategic relationship between a regional power and an international superpower. The fear of China in the media and cyberspace is practically to complete the economic siege and to starve and impoverish the Iranian people. Of course, this is the view of those who look at economics and politics through the lens of American behavior.

Why did the US President, when he boarded the US Presidential Special Plane, in response to a reporter’s question, “Are you worried about the Iran-China partnership?” “I have been worried about it for a year,” he said. The American media called the signing of the agreement an attempt by Tehran and Beijing to circumvent US sanctions policies and respond to Washington’s confrontational policies against Iran and China.

*** The need to modernize governance processes in Iran

In the current situation, Iran needs to rebuild and modernize its governance processes and infrastructure. The pact with China could be a drug, or a pact, but one should not expect a miracle from this trade-security agreement, and all aspects should be seen. This agreement is the only renewed opportunity that can pave the way for the country to overcome the current crisis and enter the gates of change. Iran’s economy must be able to connect to the world market and the dollar exchange rate in Iran must be registered, otherwise this situation can paralyze the country’s economy and practically no agreement can improve the situation.

*** Awareness of officials in optimizing the trade agreement

The view of officials and politicians on this event is very important. It is up to Iran to determine exactly what will come out of this deal and this Czech trade agreement. It should be noted that many of the requirements and scope set forth in this agreement can be met by Iran, so perhaps requests have been made that relate to Iran’s financial issues. We are not a passive country and we can decide for ourselves what we want from this deal. Without China, Iran could have a petrochemical plant or develop the Makran coast. But what sets us apart from China is our weakness in the monetary system, global marketing and trade, value chain leadership in industry and industry strategy, data governance, and in a word, governance software.

*** Evaluation of Iran-China foreign trade portfolio

But it is not bad to take a look at the foreign trade portfolio of Iran and China and the role of this agreement in the diversity of Iran’s international trade portfolio. We will get to the words of the customs spokesman. Latifi, a spokesman for Iran’s customs, recently said that Iran’s main exports to China are pistachios, nuts and spices, mineral and industrial raw materials, construction materials, methanol, polyethylene, carpets, glassware, iron ingots, iron products, Dates, grapes and fruits have been Iran’s main exports to China along with petroleum products.

Most of these export items are raw materials or products such as iron ingots and petrochemical products, the main part of which is Iran’s cheap energy exports; And goods such as carpets that are not factory-made, and In other words, we are still exporting raw materials to China.

*** Paying attention to domestic production along with foreign agreements

But in this agreement, a contradiction is received with the Nowruz message of the year. In their Nowruz message, the leadership of the regime has clarified about the slogan of last year’s production leap: “… The realization of this slogan was often in infrastructure and construction works and the like, the result of which was not evident in the country’s public economy and people’s livelihood.” It is important to note that although infrastructure works increase the quality of the infrastructure necessary for production, they often do not lead to high employment, poverty reduction, and increased exports and global market share.

*** Reassuring the public about the provisions of the Iran-China agreement

A very important point to be made about these trade collaborations and agreements is the people’s view of these categories and the acceptance of individuals by these agreements. Pragmatism is the missing link in the country’s economic system. An agreement with China, and basically the entire foreign policy, is valuable to the people when it leads to improved quality of life, including security, employment, wealth creation, technology, a healthier environment, and national happiness and pride at a lower cost and greater sustainability. The balance between these elements is also important and one cannot be constantly emphasized and the others sacrificed.

*** The role of officials in making maximum use of the trade agreement

It is necessary to assess the direction of the officials towards the strategic move and concluding such agreements with the East. An agreement with China, if it is only a tool to resist the United States, and therefore turns Iran, in addition to the 40-year conflict with the United States, into a strategic conflict between China and the United States and destroys its evil on the people, is fruitless and worthless for the people. Is. This agreement should lead Iran to international financial and trade interactions and be practically a bridge between foreign investors and Iranian goods.

*** Risk of trade agreement for Iran

An agreement with China if it only turns Iran into a workshop for construction-infrastructure projects (dams, roads, power plants, airports, etc.), and the Chinese build such infrastructures in Iran in exchange for Iranian oil (originally with our own money), of course It will be a good market for Chinese companies, but it will do nothing for the Iranians except the infrastructure that they themselves are more or less able to build.An agreement with China has a real impact on the Iranian economy and quality of life when China’s experience, capital, technology and markets employ millions of Iranians en masse (similar to what the Chinese did in their own country) in industries. Based on their commodity production, a position for Iran can be defined in the Global Value Chain (GVC).

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