In recent days, important news has been spread in the official international news forums that conditions have been created for the revival of Barjam all over the world, which has provoked different reactions. The revival of Barjam has direct repercussions for Iran, the United States, China, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, and it remains to be seen where the lobbying will take the path of Barjam negotiations. Please stay with Artan Press until the end of this news.
*** The possibility of Iran and the United States returning to Barjam
Iran and the United States are facing a very tense and, of course, fruitful week in the history of their international politics. Expectations of a speedy agreement on lifting the sanctions appear to be more limited than ever. But this period will definitely not be short, and investors should know that this path will definitely last until the summer. Therefore, they should not plan short-term to reduce rapid tensions.
*** The revival of Barjam is bad news for some countries
The issue of reviving Barjam has not been very pleasant for some countries and they have reacted strongly to this issue. Israel is lobbying hard with the US government and members of Congress and the Senate to persuade Biden to drop the issue of returning to the UN Security Council. Of course, Saudi Arabia is in the same situation and does not consider the return to Barjam in the interest of its region and country and its allies. But it does not have the power to lobby with Biden and is just waiting to see where the news goes.
*** The possibility of protracted negotiations
One of the reasons that the Iran-US talks are expected to be prolonged is the current tensions between Iran and the US, for which no solution has been provided. The United States believes that some of Iraq’s moves, including today’s missile attack on the US embassy compound, were carried out by groups close to Iran, with the aim of putting pressure and concessions in this week’s talks.
*** Iran seeks to shorten negotiation time
An important issue that Iran emphasizes very much is the shortening of the negotiation process and the determination of the definitive task of the issue of Iran’s nuclear dispute. Iran believes that any lifting of sanctions should be at the same time as verification and in one step without raising new issues. Some in the United States and Europe believe that other issues, including the issue of missiles, should be raised in the negotiations, in which Iran has made a firm position on the BRICS clauses. For this reason, it is expected that the negotiations between Iran and the United States will not end in the short term.
*** The presence of different countries in the new negotiations
Iran and the United States will meet in Austria on Tuesday next week in the presence of Germany, France, China, Russia, Britain and the European Union to negotiate and finalize two memoranda. One of them is the return to the nuclear deal and the need for Iran to return to its commitments. Borjam and the other is the lifting of sanctions and the return of the United States to Borjam. This process is time consuming and will involve verification at various stages, so it is recommended that expectations be limited in the short and medium term.
*** Subtle emphasis on complete lifting of sanctions
In a telephone conversation with Dominic Robb, Zarif stressed the need for the complete and final lifting of illegal and unjust US sanctions in order for the Islamic Republic of Iran to verify them. Iran has stressed that only then will we return to our commitments. In this regard, Zarif stated that we call on the European member states of the UN Security Council to appear constructively at the Vienna Summit, while respecting their UN Security Council commitments. The British Foreign Secretary also announced the issue during this period and said that London is trying to bring the talks to fruition.
*** Barjam achievements for Iran and the United States
Both Iran and the United States will make gains if the IAEA nuclear deal is revived. If the United States and Iran return to Barjam, 500 sanctions will be lifted. The US Special Representative for Iran claimed in an interview that if Iran returned to Barjam, more than 500 sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Iran after its withdrawal from Barjam would be lifted. The United States can also claim that the Trump administration failed to achieve what it failed to do in four years in less than six months, and that will help the Biden administration’s brand.
*** Warning of some countries about Iran’s behavior
The issue that has been mentioned in various news outlets has been Trump’s policy of maximum pressure against Iran, as a result of which Iran’s nuclear program has been further developed and Iran’s behavior in the region has become more aggressive. Therefore, the goal is to determine a roadmap for the two sides to return to adherence to the UN Security Council. It is likely that Iran’s missile issues will also be raised, in which Iran has a clear position. But it should be noted that in this lobby, China, along with Iran, can play a very effective role in Iran gaining concessions from Barjam.
*** America fears Chinese power in the region
The main reason for the US offer to return to the UN Security Council is the US fear of Chinese power in the Middle East. Three decades ago, exports of consumer and capital goods and Chinese vehicles accounted for one-eighth of Germany, one-sixth of Japan and the United States, one-third of the United Kingdom and two-thirds of Korea. Exports of Chinese goods surpassed those of Korea in 1994, the United Kingdom in 2001, the United States in 2005, and Germany in 2008.
*** Take a look at China’s trading power in the world
In 2019, Chinese exports of consumer and capital goods and vehicles were 1.8 times those of Germany, 2.2 times those of the United States, 3.8 times those of Germany, 4.9 times those of Korea and 6.9 times those of the United Kingdom. China has a $ 2.4 trillion export market for industrial goods and a 1.4 billion domestic market
It has the competitive advantages of economies of scale, complete industrial chains, high investments in industrial infrastructure and capacities, expertise and skills in production, skilled industrial workforce, high investment in research and development, and so on. The United States fears China’s new deal with Iran and fears that China’s influence in the Middle East will expand.
*** Passivity of Iran’s economy in sensitive conditions
One of the harms to the Iranian economy is that the Iranian economy is heavily dependent on US behavior, and in fact the Iranian economy, which passes through US policy channels, has always been cited as an important factor. For example, 2.98 million tons of steel ingots were offered by steelmakers in the commodity exchange, of which only 1.67 million tons (equivalent to 56%) ended in a deal and the rest had no customers. It seems that this decrease in trading volume, which is also found in other markets such as the stock market, is a sign that the Iranian economy is conditioned by US developments.
*** Barjam and the opportunities for speculation in the Iranian economy
The fact that Iran’s economy is waiting for changes in the country’s political situation, and practically knowing that political relations are always accompanied by tensions that provide the basis for the hot market of market speculation, hits the Iranian economy. This conditionality puts the Iranian economy in a state of uncertainty, and the economic agents in this situation will postpone their decisions until things like the fate of Borjam are clarified, and these delays may have no end depending on the type of game played by the American side. It is even possible that the American side has opened a special account on the conditioning of Iran’s economy
*** Passivity of Iran Stock Exchange towards Barjam
But unfortunately, the Iranian stock market reacts to the positive and negative events, and that is the fall and stabilization of the red days. The Iranian stock market is managed by human factors, and in the current situation, practically everything is ready to rise and grow, and there is no reason for such a sharp decline. When Borjam was signed, the stock market fell. When the United States withdrew from Borjam, it collapsed again, and now that it is going to return to Borjam, it has collapsed again, and there is no clear and scientific reason for this, and these falls in various behaviors cannot be analyzed with technical issues.
*** Prevent the stock market from falling against the dollar against Borjam
Suffice it to look at dollar trading. The dollar has not experienced fluctuating days and stock market declines. Perhaps the reason for this is the excessive fatigue of stock exchange activists and leaving the game. Unfortunately, the stock market took constructive investment opportunities from activists and gave investors to runaway parallel markets. If Borjam is revived, it is likely that the Iranian stock market will grow in the next government and a positive outlook for this market can be imagined again.
*** The stock market does not have a positive outlook
The main problem is inflation at home, especially economic policy, which has always increased liquidity over the past few decades. There is currently no sign of a change in stock market policy. The new year began while in the first 5 days of the year we witnessed a negative trend in the overall stock market index and recorded a drop of more than one percent in the record of the Tehran Stock Exchange.
*** Scenarios facing the stock market regarding Barjam
But it remains to be seen what the scenarios facing the stock market will be regarding Borjam. In general, the time of this influence should be seen in the next government. Meanwhile, experts, considering the atmosphere of lack of transparency in the political field, believe that returning to Borjam and in return for not returning to Borjam and the intensification of sanctions will be two scenarios that will affect the future trend of the stock market.
It should be noted that the market, if agreed by Borjam, will first be accompanied by a decline and then be accompanied by a gradual and cross-sectional growth, and this growth will occur in the next government. Unless there are changes in this government until the end.
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