Recent exchange rate fluctuations and the opportunities ahead - آرتان پرس | مرجع رسمی اطلاع رسانی فولاد | آرتان پرس | مرجع رسمی اطلاع رسانی فولاد

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Recent exchange rate fluctuations and the opportunities ahead

شناسه : 43736 ۱۷ فروردین ۱۴۰۰ - ۱۳:۲۱

The exchange rate in the markets these days plays a key role in the final price and we see that it has had a significant impact in many commodity and service markets. During the Eid holidays, the dollar exchange rate experienced an insignificant increase in the price of 1,500 Tomans, but with the news of […]

Recent exchange rate fluctuations and the opportunities ahead
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The exchange rate in the markets these days plays a key role in the final price and we see that it has had a significant impact in many commodity and service markets. During the Eid holidays, the dollar exchange rate experienced an insignificant increase in the price of 1,500 Tomans, but with the news of the Iran-US negotiations in Vienna becoming more limited, the exchange rate has fallen below the abortion rate. In the following, we will examine the exchange rate and its impact on the markets. Please be with Artan Press.


*** The Vienna negotiations resulted in a drop in currency prices

The most important factor that has attacked the exchange rate these days is the issue of the Vienna talks and the possibility of a return of Iran and the United States to their obligations and the lifting of sanctions. Of course, the stock market did not react positively to this news and we saw a decline in the total index and weighted index in yesterday’s trading, but the sales queues of some index shares were gathered, which shows good news in the stock market at least in the coming weeks We will be, and this is entirely based on the atmosphere of market sentiment and has nothing to do with value indicators.


*** Free fall of dollar prices overnight


The most important factor in the exchange rate change and the sharp decline in the exchange rate in the last 24 hours is the possibility of the US returning to its obligations and lifting the 500 sanctions that Trump was trying to root out of the Iranian economy. One day it will decrease by about 700 tomans. You should be a little worried for several reasons. First, why should the dollar exchange rate have such a bubble for the investor, and how far have we come from the real prices that this situation creates for the exchange rate in Iran.


*** Iran’s economy is heavily dependent on the dollar


Another important issue that should be mentioned is how much Iran’s economic problems are dependent on the United States, and this issue is very dangerous. When the dollar rate can fall to 700 tomans overnight, then it can be doubled by US behavior. It should be equal to or even more than double the current price. comes.


*** Threat of prolongation of Barjami negotiations for the foreign exchange market


Another issue lies in exchange rate fluctuations. It is by no means a positive thing for Iranian markets to expect a positive trend from Borjam in the face of a declining trend. In principle, waiting for the news of favorable political conditions can not help the real quality of the economy. Currency prices and, consequently, inflation will be rampant in the country.


*** The growth of the dollar rate due to the closure of the national exchange


The exchange rate in the first days of the year had exceeded the rate of 25 thousand and 500 tomans, and due to the closure of the national exchange office, the prices were sold to customers with a little more flexibility, which most likely this group of customers was in a tight spot to provide currency. They are because it is not a good time to enter foreign exchange investment opportunities on holidays. But after the holidays, the foreign exchange trading sheet came back. For example, some people have heard about the exchange rate of the national exchange dollar bill, about 24,270 tomans, along with a total reduction of approximately 200 tomans from the beginning of the reopening of the national exchange activity until now, which is closely related to the possibility of Iran-US nuclear talks. It has the city of Vienna.


*** Currency price evaluation based on dirham remittances


But it is not bad to put aside the domestic news factors and ask the situation of the foreign exchange market from the sources of the country’s foreign exchange supply. In this regard, some hearings from the UAE Dirham market around 6810 to 6820 Tomans and compared to yesterday’s late hearings have been assessed as almost constant. This shows that the foreign exchange market has the potential for price growth up to 25000 Tomans through the formula Purchases are mixed and in practice, foreign exchange suppliers are in the loss range in the current situation. Therefore, with the slightest news of disappointment from the negotiations, we will see a growth of at least 500 Tomans in the dollar exchange rate.


*** The dollar price dropped by half


According to the rates announced by the Money Changers Association, the price of the dollar in the open market decreased by 100 tomans compared to yesterday to 24,200 and the euro decreased by 250 tomans to 28,400,000 tomans. Also, the selling price of the dollar in the Nima system is 22739 and the euro is 27532 Tomans. The change in the price of the dollar in the Nima system has also changed the calculation formulas of steel prices.


*** Steel formulas change due to falling dollar


The prices of the announced rebar have been fixed so far, and some prices have had a limited reduction of 100 Tomans per kilo. The branch beam has also decreased almost fixed or sometimes a branch of 10 thousand tomans. The price of corners and studs has generally not changed. Although the forecasts indicate the possibility of continued increase in world prices, but in the domestic market, buyers have kept their hands and the market has not yet emerged from the freezing of the Nowruz holiday.


*** The threat of inflation in the shadow of exchange rate changes


A 6-fold increase in the price of currency over a period of 3 years is irrational and unprecedented even in the worst conditions of Iran’s history. It is necessary to explain that the inflation rate in Iran is strongly tied to the exchange rate, and if we experience the growth of currency prices again, we should imagine the new year as an inflationary year.


*** Take a look at exchange rate inflation


The four periods of high inflation in the history of Iran in the years 1320-22, 1373-74, 1391-92 and 1397-99 are directly related to the shock of the exchange rate increase. An increase in the exchange rate leads to an increase in the prices of assets and goods and, consequently, services

In the last half century, the price of currency (nominal or real) has risen, and as a result, the Iranian economy is caught in the abyss of a spiral of rising exchange rates, rising inflation, and rising exchange rates.


*** Markets are locked due to the news of nuclear talks


Simultaneously with the possibility of reviving Borjam from the beginning of this week and the talk of some officials; All markets are down again and we are seeing stronger sales lines again. It is safe to say that these days, almost no market has survived the razor-sharp expectations, and of course, at any given time, when the exchange rate has retreated and hopes for a appreciation of the national currency have been raised. But there is a threat in this situation. If the negotiations do not go anywhere, the commodity markets will return to their previous conditions with more intensity, and even the growth of prices will continue even more intensely and emotionally than before.


*** Tied macroeconomic indicators and exchange rate


Macroeconomic stability (maintaining the value of the national currency in domestic and foreign markets) is one of the key and important pillars of economic freedom and competitiveness. Economics never introduces and prescribes currency price shocks as a factor in the growth of production (in a completely non-competitive environment and in the absence of all key components supporting production competition). In no economy has macroeconomic instability and shocks and the constant rise in currency prices led to output growth.


*** Threats of unprecedented inflation on Barjami negotiations


Our only concern is that the expectations of Barjami, which have been strengthened at the community level for the umpteenth time since yesterday, if not met for any reason; Then we will face far more unpredictable and difficult conditions. The subject we are discussing is separate from the nature of the realization or non-realization of Borjam and the tangible effects of Borjam itself; It is the subject of the damage that is inflicted on the society every time the non-realization of the resurrection takes place.


*** The trap of wasting Americans’ time on the way to Burjam


Borjam should not be made as a promise by the Americans and the Iranian economy should be used as a toy. In the current situation, Iran’s economy is not able to withstand higher inflation than we experienced last year, and politicians must intelligently clear the way for negotiations and not fall into the possible trap of the United States. Any waste of time in the Vienna negotiations will lead to the formation of heavy buying queues in the country’s financial markets and the unbridled growth of prices in the commodity markets and the growth of liquidity in society.

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