Global economic outlook in the post-corona - آرتان پرس | مرجع رسمی اطلاع رسانی فولاد | آرتان پرس | مرجع رسمی اطلاع رسانی فولاد

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Global economic outlook in the post-corona

شناسه : 44829 ۱۸ فروردین ۱۴۰۰ - ۱۳:۳۰
The growth of the global economy has been accompanied by significant growth after the acceleration of global vaccination. China and the United States are in a favorable position in macroeconomic indicators. Reducing the unemployment rate is one of the decisive achievements of the Biden government.
Global economic outlook in the post-corona
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Every year, the world economic outlook is evaluated by international economic and analytical bases, and the trends of the coming year are discussed and exchanged and the outlook is determined with great precision. After overcoming the corona crisis in many major economies of the world and the start of vaccination, many analytical institutions have considered the global economic trend with positive assumptions, which we will describe below. Please stay with Artan Press until the end.


*** Global economic outlook based on OECD perspective


One of the most important bases of economic analysis is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The agency predicts that the global economic outlook will grow rapidly over the next two years, compensating for the 2020 deficits and recessions. “For the first time since the pandemic began, we now see hope for a brighter future,” the organization said, referring to advances in the corona vaccine and the unexpected response of governments and the World Bank to the effects of the corona crisis.


*** Corona risk in the world is almost controlled


According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the risks of the Corona crisis are virtually controlled, and we see that many of the world’s major countries have experienced zero mortality rates since the start of vaccination. It is a great improvement for the health system. In other words, the global economy has moved away from its difficult days and the conditions have been created for maximum improvement.


*** Global economic developments in the last year


The global economy shrank by about 5 percent in 2020, which is estimated at over $ 120 trillion. The United States was the main loser in world trade due to the Corona crisis. China was the only country to achieve a positive 3% economic growth in 2020, which could be the beginning of the conquest of the world economy over the next ten years. Of course, analysis by the Economic Development Organization has shown that it is true that much of the economy is alive and well in the Corona crisis, but the situation is still dangerous for many individuals, companies and vulnerable countries.


Global forecasts show growth of about 4% next year. According to forecasts, the world’s real GDP will reach 4.2 percent in 2021 and 3.7 percent in 2022. The agency forecast for September that growth would be up to 5 percent by 2021. In no way can the state of the world economy be commented on with the same certainty as in previous years. Because it is still not possible to make a definite decision about the definite response of vaccines and the process of its distribution in the world and evaluate the result.


*** Economists’ optimism about the future of markets


Predictions about the future of the global economy show that many economic actors are also optimistic about the future of the markets. Surveys of prominent economic activists and analysts show that 53% of these activists are optimistic about the future of global markets, predicting growth of more than 5% for the global economy, and only 18% for slower growth. Economics have acknowledged concern.


*** The corona crisis should not be underestimated


Although the OECD’s outlook for the future of the economy has been positive. The organization warns that there will continue to be significant uncertainty and urges policymakers around the world not to withhold targeted support from vulnerable children, individuals and businesses to reduce the risk of scars left over from the Corona crisis.


*** The United States is in a favorable economic situation


The latest round of financial stimulus in the United States, along with the use of vaccines around the world, has made the organization more confident about the global economy this year. The International Monetary Fund expects the global economy to grow by 5% in 2021, up from 5.5% in January. For advanced economies, the International Monetary Fund estimates growth of 5.1 percent, and the United States is set to grow 6.4 percent.


*** The IMF is optimistic about the global economic


The International Monetary Fund expects further economic recovery in 2021, as Vacencrona has stabilized its positive performance. But given the different rates of coronavirus infection and the onset of multiple peaks in different countries, there are still doubts and fears about the international macroeconomy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said governments should continue to focus on “escaping the crisis” by providing financial support, including to their healthcare systems. Second, “policymakers need to limit the long-term economic scars of the crisis and boost public investment.”


*** Support packages for the growth of the US economy


Recent forecasts suggest that the United States is in a favorable position to experience full economic recovery in 2021, unlike many in the world, where the return to the previous level is likely to take longer. A positive assessment for the United States is heavily influenced by President Joe Biden’s $ 1.9 trillion Corona virus rescue package, which went into effect last month.


*** Reducing the unemployment rate in the United States


According to the latest IMF forecasts, unemployment in the United States will fall from 8.1% in 2020 to 5.8% this year and to 4.1% in 2022. In February, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen

Ray said the United States could return to full employment in 2022, which could be almost unprecedented in US history. The latest IMF forecasts confirm that the US is on track to not only perform better than it did before its pre-epidemic this year, but could experience much better conditions than before the Corona crisis.


*** The readiness of the global economic to stabilize growth


The power of recovery is predicted to vary considerably from country to country, depending on access to medical interventions, the effectiveness of policies to support households, providing subsidized loans to households and industries, and the use of expansionary economics approaches. Differentiate the conditions in different countries in terms of economic growth and prosperity.


*** China’s economic experience last year


Despite being the center of the Corona epidemic, China was the first and only major economy to recover and enter 2021 with a relatively optimistic outlook. Sustained and time-responsive responses to Beijing’s policies, epidemic control strategy, and redefining macroeconomic goals have ensured that this is the only G20 economy to experience positive growth in 2020.
China’s economic recovery combined with a combination of factors, including massive investment in infrastructure and real estate, boosted exports boosted by global demand for medical equipment electronic kits and corona diagnostic kits, pushed the country’s economy into a period of growth. Stagnant international markets.


*** Significant growth of China’s economy in 2021


Compared to the baseline figures for 2020, many analysts expect China’s economic growth to reach around 8 to 9 percent in 2021. China’s return to normalcy could mean policy normalization this year. But it is not possible for the Jain economic system to return to normalcy alone, because other countries will have to follow in China’s footsteps. Therefore, China will be cautious in this regard and does not want to increase its economic costs unnecessarily.


*** Chinese tactics in controlling the economy


In addition to eliminating surplus and backward production capacity, China has put on the agenda leverage to slow the economy and move up the value chain in order to control the economy in the unfavorable conditions of last year. China’s domestic consumption will account for 55% of GDP in 2019, and this is the driving force behind China’s economic growth. However, in 2020, in the early months due to the epidemic, consumption declined significantly, but after recording positive growth since August, in the second half of the year, albeit at a slower pace than other economic mapping trends. Began to rise

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