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Economic growth scenarios in 1400

شناسه : 45366 24 فروردین 1400 - 14:30
اقتصاد کشور در وضعیتی است که طی یک دهه گذشته درآمد سرانه افزایشی نیافته و میزان سرمایه‌گذاری سالانه در سال جاری حتی کمتر از سرمایه‌گذاری سالانه در ده سال پیش است. افزایش فاصله با کشورهای منطقه و کاهش درآمد سرانه و افت شاخص‌های رفاه، ضرورت بازنگری در سیاست‌های اقتصادی را بیش از پیش آشکار کرده است.
Economic growth scenarios in 1400
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The World Bank has stated in a detailed report on the evaluation of Iran’s economy that even if the political pressures on Iran are as great as possible, Iran will still end 2021 with positive economic growth. In this note, we will refer to the evaluation of the latest factors and influential items in the Iranian economy and its economic growth prospects. Please be with Artan Press.

*** Iran’s economic outlook for 2021


High and sustainable economic growth and rapid increase in per capita income and poverty reduction, need to expand economic interactions with the outside world in terms of attracting capital and technology, export development and participation in the global value chain. Without sustainable economic partnership with other countries, achieving high economic growth It is far from the mind. Iran will enter a period of positive economic growth in 2021. The World Bank, in a report predicting a 1 to 2.1 percent growth for Iran’s economy during the year 1400, said this would happen even if difficult conditions were created and strict political scenarios for Iran were not realized.

*** Scenarios of international cooperation in the economic sector

If Iran is committed to achieving its economic aspirations, the various scenarios of international cooperation must be managed in the best possible way. In economic interactions with the outside world, each of the countries in the region, China, India, Russia, Western countries, South America and African countries, have their own role and importance. Exclusive reliance on any of the economic poles is politically unstable and fragile, and will be economically inefficient and ineffective. Therefore, if Iran relies on any foreign country and bases its economic policies on performance And if their commitment wants to be operational, we will see the conditions of 2015 and the passivity of the countries, and economic growth will not be achieved.

*** Economic threat from reliance on foreign countries

The experience of the past decades has well revealed the harms and dangers of interacting with each of the Western and Eastern partners. Therefore, it is not possible to sanctify any of the current and potential partners. Interaction with the world requires vigilance and full knowledge of international equations and attention to long-term national interests. Iran’s economy in 2019 and 2018 has seen growth of -6.6 and negative 6 percent. Economic growth in the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to improve due to increased domestic consumption and tourism and the adjustment of the Covid 19 epidemic.

*** Business Cooperation Document Development Scenario

Preparing a document on long-term cooperation with China is an important and correct step towards expanding long-term economic interactions with the world. It is hoped that similar documents will be drawn up with India, Russia, neighboring countries, Europe and South America. Each step taken in this area will increase bargaining power in the next steps. The International Monetary Fund also expects Iran’s economy to return to growth in 2021. In the latest World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund forecasts 3.2 percent growth in Iran’s GDP this year

*** Extraversion scenarios in the Iranian economy

It should be noted that although the principle of developing partnerships with the outside world is important, the amount of win-lose and revenue from extraversion depends entirely on our internal decisions and strategies. Extraversion must be accompanied by extensive internal reforms such as market reform, economic stability, and stability. Policies and the like. It should be noted that Iran’s GDP in 2019 has shrunk by 6.5%. This figure is easily reversible if not properly managed.

*** Uncertainties in forecasting economic growth

There are many uncertainties in predicting the growth of Iran’s economy. These uncertainties still exist in assessing the quality of the world economy and are not limited to the economic situation in Iran. The economic downturn in the current situation depends on factors that are difficult to predict.
Including the uncertain route of vaccination and the crisis and the fourth and fifth corona peaks, the intensity and effectiveness of disease control efforts in Iran, the extent of disruptions in the supply of essential goods, the consequences of worsening global financial market conditions, changes in spending patterns, changes Behavioral and price instability are all among the factors that threaten Iran’s economic growth and leave it in a state of ambiguity.

*** Turning points of Iran’s economic growth scenarios

Different scenarios of Iran’s economic growth in 1400 have significant turning points. According to the International Monetary Fund, Iran’s industrial sector has an attractive and measurable position in Iran’s economic growth. The new report of this reference body confirms


*** The role of industry in Iran’s economic growth

The industrial sector will play a significant role in this growth. The report of the Deputy Minister of Planning and Program of the Ministry of Silence on the World Bank forecast for the Iranian economy shows that the growth of the industrial sector up to 3% next year will be possible. At the same time, assuming the worst case scenario, the industry will grow by at least 1.5 percent. This can help reduce the problem of stagflation in the country, which has plagued the Iranian economy for about 25 years.

*** The impact of oil on Iran’s economic growth in 2021

Iran’s economic growth signals can be examined from the perspective of world oil prices and its developments. Rising oil prices have become a major issue in financial markets in recent weeks. A growth that coincides with various events such as the discovery of the Corona vaccine, the start of vaccinations, the election of Biden as US President, optimism about Iran’s return to the world oil market, Libyan developments, OPEC cartel agreements and cooperation, Russia and Saudi Arabia, China’s economic growth. New bans on US oil fields, various scenarios on shale oil, etc. will have a positive or negative effect.

*** The need to eliminate political tensions in the oil market

Political tensions have disrupted the economy, despite Iran’s significant oil reserves. The effect of these sanctions is revealed by examining Iran’s oil exports to Europe over the past decade. Some analysts blame the new sanctions on Iran’s rising inflation rate and the devaluation of the currency. If

If Iran can smooth the path of world trade and sell its oil with less hassle, Iran’s economic growth will be achieved with a higher percentage.

*** Existing concerns about trade with Iran

Although Iran’s main export partners are mainly in Asia, most transactions are conducted in US dollars. Even if other payment methods are possible, some countries are concerned about the political consequences of continuing trade relations with Iran. Iran’s biggest strength right now may be its low national debt, meaning it can borrow a significant amount of money if it can find a willing lender. However, given the instability of the political situation in the world and in the region, it is difficult to imagine such a borrower at present.

*** Economic growth from the perspective of internal reports

Abdul Nasser Hemmati, Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, wrote in his Instagram post that Iran’s economic growth (using 2011 data as the base year) in the first half of the current fiscal year (March 20-September 21) changed from negative to positive. Economic growth, excluding oil, was 1.4%, and at the time of factorization in the oil sector, it was 1.3% in the first six months of this year compared to the same period last year. Economic growth, including in the oil sector, was 2.9% and 5.1% in the first and second quarters of this year, respectively.

*** Economic growth by different sectors of the economy

The breakdown of part of the growth rate in this report shows that only the “agriculture” and “industries and mines, excluding oil” sectors grew by 1.7% and 2%, respectively. Industries and mines grew by 0.7% and services by 3.5%. Last year’s growth was recorded in their economic growth record. Iran’s economic performance is promising compared to non-sanctioned countries, which only had to deal with the corona virus.

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